Projecting how far the 49ers will make it this season

Philadelphia dominated Kansas City in the Super Bowl, and the Eagles enter this season as the clear favorite to win back-to-back titles. The Niners are hoping to ascend in the second half of the season and ride that momentum into the playoffs.

NFC

1. Philadelphia 13-4

2.      Green Bay 12-5

3.      LA Rams 12-5

4.      Tampa Bay 11-6

5.      Detroit 11-6

6.      Washington 11-6

7.      San Francisco 10-7

Also competing for a wild card spot: Seattle 10-7, Arizona 9-8, Atlanta 9-8, Minnesota 9-8, Chicago 8-9.

The key for the Niners is that they face most of their competition for the wild card head-to-head. Seattle and Arizona twice in-division, plus games against Tampa, Atlanta, and Chicago. Winning these matchups put the 49ers in a good position to win tiebreakers and make the playoffs. Those are the must-win games this year.

The division rests on the back of Matthew Stafford. If he misses three games or more, LA is in trouble. The Rams have the least explosive running game in the league. To then add Jimmy “who me explosives?” Garoppolo, good luck.

Garoppolo’s tennis court throwing window (20 yards downfield and inside the numbers) can’t produce big plays either. The Rams defense is excellent, but when the offense is that impotent, it’s tough to win - the defense wears down from being on the field too long.

Seattle should have a top-five defense; they have the personnel Mike Macdonald requires for his simulated pressure schemes. The question is the consistency of the offense, the offensive line specifically. The line has been solid pre-season; we’ll see if that continues in real games. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak gives the running game a leap forward.

Arizona falls into a pattern that I expect to happen again this year: start hot then fade. The schedule is more difficult in the second half, and some of their additions have been older players.

For the Niners, it’s all about health. If the top seven stay reasonably healthy, this is a playoff team. Any of them miss three games or more, particularly George Kittle or Trent Williams, and the season is at risk.

In the playoffs, if the Niners are healthy, they can beat Tampa on the road in the wild card round, but then they’d face Philadelphia’s running game the next week and the season ends.

AFC

1.      Buffalo 14-3

2.      Baltimore 13-4

3.      Kansas City 13-4

4.      Cincinnati 12-5

5.      Houston 12-5

6.      Denver 11-6

7.      LA Chargers 11-6

Who hosts the conference championship may be decided this week when Baltimore goes to Buffalo. The winner gets the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker. I think that will be Buffalo as the Ravens are without Isaiah Likely in the opener.

Kansas City is still formidable, but Travis Kelce is a fateful year too old now, and I think that will be enough for them to fall in the playoffs to Baltimore or Buffalo this time.

FINAL FOUR

The home teams sweep; Josh Allen is more effective in the Buffalo snow than Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Philadelphia wins a tight one from Detroit, as the Lions lose their speed outdoors in the cold.

SUPER BOWL

The game is at Levi’s and the talk will surround Josh Allen, but the Buffalo run defense ranked 12th last year. That’s not good enough to stop the game MVP Saquon Barkley. Philadelphia repeats.