Projecting the 49ers' record now that Nick Bosa is out for the season

Before Bosa went down, I had the Jags winning this game; without Bosa, it’s that much harder. These aren’t the second pick in the draft Jaguars any longer; new Head Coach/OC Liam Coen has transformed the team. Tied for 2nd in pass protection at just one sack per game, 8th in total offense, 4th in rushing, +5 turnover margin tied for 1st, the league leader in interceptions.

Coen will know to target Renardo Green and the safeties, and Trevor Lawrence will have time and can deliver. The Jacksonville DBs have great ball skills to create picks. If the Jacksonville receivers avoid the inexcusable drops (12% of Lawrence's passes), I have the Jags winning a tight game.

LA Rams L 3-2

The Niners didn’t match up with the Rams last year; this year there’s more distance between the teams.

Tampa Bay L 3-3

Tampa will get All-Pro Tristan Wirfs and WR Chris Godwin back this week. The Niner offense can’t put up enough points to keep pace with the Bucs offense at full strength.

Atlanta W 4-3

The Falcons laid an egg at Carolina, losing 30-0 and firing their WR coach. They face Washington and Buffalo before going to Santa Clara, so they may enter the matchup on a three-game losing streak of their own. The Niners get George Kittle back at last.

Houston W 5-3

Brandon Aiyuk and Malik Mustapha may return for this game, and if they are back, they should make an immediate impact. Houston’s offensive line is costing them games. That’s good news for the Niners without Bosa to get home on C.J. Stroud. The Texans defense is among the league’s best. This will be tight.

NY Giants W 6-3

One of the league’s worst teams, the Giants have a defensive line, a receiver, and not much else. Jaxson Dart has taken over for a done Russell Wilson, but will also be vulnerable to rookie mistakes. The danger of this game is the cross-country flight to New York and playing on one of the league’s worst surfaces, potentially in bad weather. Before the season began, I circled this as the injury game.

LA Rams L 6-4

Provided Matthew Stafford’s back is healthy, the Rams win. If Garoppolo starts lol, that would be cathartic.

Arizona W 7-4

Without James Conner, it’s not in the Cards.

Carolina W 8-4

The hapless Panthers. On track for another top-three pick.

Cleveland L 8-5

A game in late November at the Mistake By The Lake  — it’s rain, snow, or both  — Purdy kryptonite. Plus the Shanahan kryptonite in Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, 9-1 against Shanahan head-to-head. Why? A great back seven goes against the core assumption of the Shanahan offense that the defense will have weaknesses to exploit, particularly at LB. The Browns defense just beat Green Bay.

Tennessee W 9-5

The Titans don’t have 22 legit starters yet; they need another early pick draft.

Indianapolis W 10-5

The key to the Colts' offense is the running game with Jonathan Taylor. The Niners, by this point in the season, could have one of the league’s best run defenses.

Chicago W 11-5

The Bears defense is a late Christmas present.

Seattle L 11-6

The Seahawks are improving on both ends and have the league’s best special teams unit. This could be another Purdy rain game. Presumably, Klint Kubiak knows how to game plan against the Niners in the rematch after completely booting the opener. Both teams may enter the game with wild cards secured.

At 11-6, I still have the Niners as the final wild card. The Rams, Green Bay, Tampa, and Philly are the division winners with Detroit, Seattle, and the Niners as wild cards. Washington and Minnesota will also be in the mix. In the wild-card round, I have the Niners going to Lambeau and losing to Green Bay.