Queipo’s Cover 4: Inside Baker Mayfield – Bucs Contract Extension

Anzalone had the 10th best QB Rating against when targeted last year among qualified linebackers. His 65.6% completion rating allowed was 2nd best. And his 8% forced incompletion rate was tied for seventh in the league.

From 2019-2023, the Bucs had the same linebacker pairing of David and Devin White. White was used in a pass rush capacity on 20% of opponents passing snaps while David was used that way about half as much. When the two were deployed in coverage White was asked to play more flats and man coverage where his athleticism could be leaned on more heavily. Meanwhile, David was asked to play more difficult coverage assignments like hook-curls, curl-flats and pole running in Tampa 2.

With Trotter adjusting to the NFL and still developing as a zone defender, Anzalone’s role is extremely important. Anzalone’s coverage skills in zone – his ability to get to his spots on time, feel routes developing around him and limit damage – should allow Trotter to play the White role, leaning into his athleticism and play fast, especially as a blitzer.

It’s a cascading effect. Anzalone playing his role means Bowles can utilize Trotter to his strengths. When talking about player evaluation on the Rondé Barber Podcast, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles believes in this core philosophy: “Don’t tell me what he can’t do. Tell me what he can do.”

Anzalone can do the more difficult coverage stuff, which allows Trotter to do the more man-to-man underneath coverage and pass rushing assignments. The defense is better for it.

Finance: Inside The Bucs – Baker Mayfield Contract Extension

Bucs world had its biggest news story of the 2026 offseason (can we call it the offseason anymore since we are technically in Week1 now?) with the fact that the team was able to come to terms with its franchise quarterback in the 23rd hour of negotiations before the season started. The Bucs and Baker Mayfield agreed to a three-year deal worth $165 million with a total of $150 million in guarantees.

That’s pretty darn close to the deal I floated last month during an episode of Pewter Report’s Cap Convo on the subject.

Let’s unpack the deal and how it differed from the offer the team had out a month ago.

The APY as a Percentage of Cap

Mayfield’s $55 million APY (average per year) ties him with a slew of quarterbacks for the third-highest paid at the position behind Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes ($64 million) and Dallas’ Dak Prescott ($60 million). But that number is misleading because of the nature of the NFL salary cap. Effectively, the salary cap inflates every year (except in 2021 due to the impact of COVID 19). The $55 million number in 2026 represents a smaller portion of a team’s salary cap (and cash spending budget) than $55 million in any year prior.

And all of those quarterbacks Mayfield is now tied with signed in previous years.

Here’s the breakdown:

Mayfield’s APY as a percentage of cap is basically the midpoint of Daniel Jones’ extension with the Giants in 2023 and Brock Purdy’s current deal with the 49ers.

Cash Flows

Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated has reported the cashflows of the deal are:

• 2026 – $50 million
• 2027 – $50 million
• 2028 – $50 million
• 2029 – $55 million

His cash for 2026 goes from tied for 10th in the NFL (among quarterbacks) to tie for seventh with Daniel Jones. As of this writing, he is tied for fifth in cash in 2027, seventh in 2028 and second in 2029.

It’s a solid deal for Mayfield based on where he ranks right now. But he will fall in the next eight months as C.J. Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye all look for new deals.

It’s important to not that Mayfield didn’t quite get even cash flows across the life of the deal. His fourth year is at a slightly inflated rate – and it’s not guaranteed.

Guarantees

Greg Auman of Fox Sports has reported that the team guaranteed $110 million of the new money, on top of the $40 million he already had guaranteed. That’s $150 million total in guaranteed money. Interestingly, those aren’t all full guarantees.

Auman reported that all of it is guaranteed for injury with full guarantees setting in later. My guess would be that his 2026 and 2027 salaries are fully guaranteed ($100 million), with his 2028 salary fully guaranteeing early in the 2027 league year (March). And with the way the team is likely to structure the contract for the salary cap, it would be difficult for them to let him go before that guaranteed date without incurring a huge cap penalty.

This is a win for the Bucs in that they limit guarantees to 2028, as the $55 million in 2029 year is not guaranteed. Other quarterbacks on multi-year deals at this APY have some sort of guarantee that lives in the fourth effective year. The final year in 2029 is a true option year for Tampa Bay.

Where the Two Sides Gave To Meet in the Middle

Mayfield wanted that third year. In some ways he needed it. If he had accepted the Bucs’ offer in August of two years and $100+ million, as Jeremy Fowler had reported, then he would not be able to lay claim to the largest contract in Bucs history. That mantle would stay with Tristan Wirfs and his five-year, $140.625 million deal. But with that extra year he can now boast he has signed the biggest deal the team has ever given out.

The Bucs acquiesced on the extra year, but they held strong on the guarantees. From the team perspective the deal has not changed from the August offer in terms of what the Buccaneers are locked in for. And now they have a 2029 option year on their franchise quarterback for an amount that will likely be the equivalent of $43 million in cash this year.

This looks to be a real win-win for both sides. And not a moment too soon.

Forecast: Bucs Make Rare Move in 2027

Without his extension the Bucs were facing a real possibility of using the franchise tag on Baker Mayfield in 2027. But now the franchise tag landscape has entirely changed for the team. Teams can only use one franchise tag per year. And now that Tampa Bay doesn’t have to worry about using the tag on Mayfield, the team could potentially use it on another player.

The most likely candidate for the tag is outside linebacker Yaya Diaby. Diaby is entering a contract year and has 142 tackles, 38 TFLs and 19 sacks and 153 pressures over the past three seasons.

Those numbers are comparable to Jacksonville’s Travon Walker and Washington’s Odafe Oweh, setting his current market at somewhere between $25 and $27 million per year. Without any improvement in play Diaby could be looking at a pay day of $30 million per year next offseason comparable to what Carolina gave Jaelan Phillips. And what if he finally clears double-digit sacks? In that scenario he absolutely clears $30 million per year.

After signing Mayfield and Vita Vea, the Bucs may not have the cash to keep Diaby. And instead of just letting him walk in the offseason they could try to tag and trade Diaby. OverTheCap currently projects the linebacker tag at $30 million next year. What could Diaby fetch in a tag and trade situation? Assuming his market is $32.5 million his overall value, including the contract surplus value, is about $35 million.

That’s about half 60% of the value Jonathan Greenard had when he was traded this offseason from the Vikings to the Eagles for two third-rounders (with a seventh-rounder going back to the Vikings).

Greenard had two years left on his deal when he was traded. Diaby would have only one under the tag. I estimate he would go to a contender for a second-round pick. In a world where the normally cash-conservative Bucs have now given out big money to both Vea and Mayfield, I could see a tag-and-trade for Diaby to net a top 75 pick (a cash-controlled asset) for a player the team likely couldn’t afford to keep long-term is a real possibility for Tampa Bay next year.

Fun Fourth Down: Bucs Made Second Key Signing On Tuesday

Baker Mayfield’s extension grabbed all the headlines yesterday, but it wasn’t the only consequential signing of the day for the organization. Longtime radio host, and Pewter Report friend and contributor, Jay Recher was also signed by the Buccaneers. Recher will serve as the team’s sideline reporter on gamedays for the team’s radio broadcast.

Recher is well respected in the Tampa Bay area for his coverage of all sports including the USF Bulls, the Bucs, the Lightning and the Rays. He has worked for 95.7 WDAE and now hosts his own weekday podcast, The Jay Recher Show and also contributes to PewterReportTV with the Recher Report. This is a huge win for the Bucs as they get a highly enthusiastic professional who consistently brings thoughtful questions to every interaction.

Recher’s blend of personality is a perfect fit for the role and I am sure he will do an amazing job with the new gig.

Congratulations Jay!