Raiders Playoff Projections: Las Vegas Keeps Postseason Hopes Afloat

The Raiders stormed back to beat the Jets and effectively save their playoff chances. It is only Week 8, but a loss in New York with the Raiders’ schedule could have been a fatal blow. 

But, Las Vegas is 4-4 and sits just one game back of the Patriots for the final wild card spot. If it actually came down to those two, New England has a significant edge after beating the Raiders earlier this season. 

With the 49ers up next and the trade deadline looming, here is how likely the Raiders are to make it to the postseason. 

What the models are saying:

The Raiders got modest bumps in their playoff probabilities after beating the Jets. FTN Fantasy has Las Vegas at 13.4 percent to make the postseason, up from 7.1 percent. While The Athletic’s model puts the Raiders in the playoffs 18 percent of the time. Last week it sat at 13 percent. 

Thanks to the Ravens loss and Lamar Jackson injury, the Raiders have climbed up to 10th among AFC teams in playoff probability by both FTN Fantasy and The Athletic. Seven AFC teams will make the playoffs. The most likely teams for the Raiders to surpass are the Texans, Browns and Steelers. 

The Browns and Steelers both have better records than the Raiders, making those teams obvious playoff contenders. But the Texans are just 2-5 this season, and are still more likely to make the playoffs than the Raiders. 

Even with Jacksonville off to a 5-2 start, the Texans still have a better chance to win the AFC South (14.2 percent) than the Raiders do to win the AFC West (2.8 percent). Otherwise the Texans’ easier schedule could give Houston a path to the playoffs. 

Does the draft pick matter?

The Raiders have surpassed their win total from last season in eight games. Landing the top pick again is certainly out of the question for an improved Las Vegas team. But if the Raiders miss the playoffs, they will still want as high of a pick as possible. 

As of the current standings, the Raiders would be picking 14th in the 2027 NFL Draft. FTN Fantasy has dropped the Raiders chances of landing a top five pick down to five percent. 

The Raiders have clear holes on their roster. General manager John Spytek will need to prove he can draft talented players at some point. Picking 14th will make that harder. 

But Las Vegas isn’t going to tank out the season like last year. There is a clear desire to show improvement under Klint Kubiak, and so far the Raiders look like a competent NFL team in 2026.