Ranking the NFL's 2026 QB situations ahead of the draft

The Steelers once again appear to be waiting on Aaron Rodgers, but he does not factor into this ranking. Despite the future Hall of Famer indicating he was 90% retired before his winter 2023 darkness retreat, signs point to a 21st season. Rodgers was sporadically effective last season but did not closely remind of his MVP versions. At 42 and with a Mike McCarthy reunion in play, another stopgap season for the all-time talent is in play. Rodgers, who did not join the Steelers until June of last year, is again delaying his decision. As it stands, Mason Rudolph and 2025 sixth-round pick Will Howard are the rostered QBs. 

Further exposing the Pro Bowl invite as a poor success measurement, Shedeur Sanders booked a trip after a rocky third of a season in the starter role. The polarizing passer posted a 7:10 TD-INT ratio and completed 56.6% of his passes. The Browns, however, are still midway through (thanks to numerous restructures) the Deshaun Watson albatross contract. No pricey free agent was realistic, and the situation -- which is poised to bring punitive dead money figures in 2027 and 2028 -- undoubtedly affected Cleveland's coaching search. For now, Sanders, Watson and 2025 third-rounder Dillon Gabriel comprise this QB room.

The new Dolphins regime signed off on a record-smashing dead money hit, being hit with $99.2 million (over two years) from their Tua Tagovailoa release. With that anchoring the next two Miami payrolls, the team went in a different direction compared to the post- Russell Wilson Broncos. Malik Willis followed Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan from Green Bay, signing a three-year, $67M deal with $45M fully guaranteed. The Dolphins, who have season-ending starter Quinn Ewers positioned as the backup, then traded Jaylen Waddle. Willis shined in small doses as a Packer, but his miserable Titans stint makes this a buyer-beware situation (particularly with limited weaponry).

Among the teams that either could be waiting for the 2027 draft or reside in the murky Ty Simpson market, the Cardinals have two bridge options in place. Closely linked to reuniting Mike LaFleur with Jimmy Garoppolo, Arizona added Gardner Minshew instead. Minshew's one-year, $5.75 million deal accompanies Jacoby Brissett's two-year, $12.5M pact. While the Minshew signing raises the Cardinals' floor, the franchise's first post-Kyler Murray team checks in as one of the lowest-ceiling operations. That might be by design, though if GM Monti Ossenfort is not assured of being in place come 2027, Simpson-Arizona links will multiply ahead of the draft.

Joining the Cardinals as a clear candidate for Arch Manning or Dante Moore in 2027, the Jets reunited with Geno Smith in what amounts to a salary-dump trade for the Raiders. The Jets reacquired Smith -- their starter from 2013-14, before IK Enemkpali's sucker-punch incident brought Ryan Fitzpatrick to center stage -- in a late-round pick swap. The Raiders are footing most of the bill. Smith will replace Justin Fields as the Jets' Week 1 starter, with Fields traded to the Chiefs after being benched. The Jets have not re-signed Tyrod Taylor. Odds are, their 2027 Week 1 starter is not on the current roster.

The Falcons cleaned house this offseason, and the changes naturally invite questions about Michael Penix Jr.'s standing. The Terry Fontenot draft pick suffered another major injury, bringing his health trouble at Indiana into focus. Atlanta's Matt Ryan-Ian Cunningham-Kevin Stefanski power structure did not reaffirm Penix as the starter, with Tua Tagovailoa's vet-minimum deal -- possible thanks to his 2026 Dolphins guarantee -- providing a rare all-southpaw QB battle. Tagovailoa carries obvious injury baggage to Georgia, and while he experienced notable highs in Florida, the former top-five pick is coming off two down seasons.

Dave Canales has elevated Bryce Young, but the Panthers have not seen enough evidence to begin extension talks. It took the 5-foot-10 passer 16 games to clear 3,000 passing yards last season, as the Panthers journeyed through an inconsistent season. Winning the perennially dreadful NFC South, Carolina ranked 27th offensively. Young has improved from sunk-cost status, and the Panthers found him a quality wide receiver (Tetairoa McMillan) after missing on Jonathan Mingo and Xavier Legette. The Panthers appear less protected in the event Young misses time, as the erratic Kenny Pickett replaces Philly-bound Andy Dalton.

The Raiders traded Geno Smith and are about to replace him with Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick. Kenny Pickett also signed with the Panthers to back up Bryce Young. But Las Vegas will take the unusual step of having a veteran stopgap in front of a No. 1 pick. Kirk Cousins managed to score another eight-figure guarantee, with the shrewd negotiator being set to likely open the season as the Raiders' starter. The past six QBs chosen first overall have started from the jump, with Baker Mayfield being the most recent to sit in Week 1. Mayfield was in by Week 4. How long will the Raiders, who still have Aidan O'Connell rostered, keep Cousins at the wheel?

Brian Daboll pushed hard for Jaxson Dart in last year's first round; the three-year Daniel Jones mentor received his walking papers in November. With John Harbaugh shaking up the Giants' organizational pecking order, Joe Schoen is on shaky ground. Harbaugh inherits the GM's Dart plan and his two-year, $8 million Jameis Winston contract. Down Malik Nabers for most of last season, Dart impressed at points and struggled in others. Par for the rookie course. Winston is what he is at this point, which is a high-variance backup, but he is the clear No. 2 option as Russell Wilson will need a new team once again. 

Brian Callahan was overmatched as a head coach, and his in-season firing disrupted Cam Ward's development. Ward is learning a new system, with Daboll choosing Tennessee as his post-New York landing spot. Daboll will attempt to develop last year's No. 1 pick, a player who finished last in 2025 QBR. Ward flashed the talent that drove him to the top of last year's board, and the Titans added ex-Giants slot cog Wan'Dale Robinson to reunite with Daboll. Tennessee also reunited Daboll with ex-Bills pupil Mitch Trubisky, whose presence seemingly points 2023 second-round pick Will Levis out of town. For now, though, Levis remains after a lost 2025.

The Saints traded longtime No. 2 wide receiver Rashid Shaheed and did not see much from the brief Brandin Cooks reunion. Alvin Kamara also missed the team's final six games. After usurping Spencer Rattler, however, Tyler Shough made New Orleans' leaky setup work. The Offensive Rookie of the Year runner-up showed considerable promise in Kellen Moore's offense. The Saints still have Rattler, but they signed Zach Wilson. Now on about his sixth chance, the former No. 2 overall pick has been among this era's biggest busts. But with Rattler arriving under a previous coaching staff, Wilson may slide into QB2 duty.

It can be argued the Colts overspent to retain a midlevel core, but GM Chris Ballard has been committed to this roster path throughout his tenure. Daniel Jones at $44 million per year and Alec Pierce at $28.5M AAV is quite different from their team-friendly deals in 2025, but these rankings do not factor contracts into the equation. Jones' extensive injury history -- with an Achilles tear and a fibula fracture tacked added in from 2025 -- does factor in. The Colts will bet on Jones, who scored an even better deal than the Giants gave him in 2023. With Anthony Richardson likely on the way out, 2025 sixth-rounder Riley Leonard appears in place as the backup.

Letting Sam Darnold walk and watching him win Super Bowl LX and seeing J.J. McCarthy struggle, the Vikings fired GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. They then took advantage of Kyler Murray's contract, with the Cardinals' guarantee commitments allowing the undersized passer to land in Minnesota for the veteran minimum. Murray at $1.2 million brings strong value, even if the former No. 1 pick is coming off an injury-shortened tenure that peaked a few years ago. Murray looks to be the starter, while McCarthy now needs to fend off the re-signed Carson Wentz for the backup job. McCarthy is on unstable ground entering the offseason program.

We have needed to pump the brakes on anointing C.J. Stroud as a star. After a breakthrough rookie season with a limited supporting cast, Stroud has struggled. His most recent playoff showings brought alarm bells and held back a tenacious Texans defense. The former No. 2 overall pick may need to wait a year on an extension, after it appeared a post-Year 3 deal was a foregone conclusion. Stroud has seen O-line struggles and pass catcher injuries restrict him, but 2026 profiles as a big year for his NFL trajectory. Davis Mills went 3-0 as a starter last season and provides Houston with a quality backup.

A two-plus-year hiatus and a blinding snowstorm impacted Jarrett Stidham in the AFC championship game, but it is fairly easy to argue the Broncos qualify for Super Bowl LX had Bo Nix not gone down . The gap between Denver's top two QBs looked much wider than it did during their 2024 competition. Nix has displayed inconsistency, but he continually came through when the Broncos needed him last season. The ascending QB still has more to prove to be viewed as a true upper-crust option; the Broncos will hope Jaylen Waddle will help him do that. Stidham's two-year, $12 million deal runs through the 2026 season; this will be his fourth season as a Denver backup.

Caleb Williams' rough rookie year brought a regime change in Chicago, reminding of the timelines the Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields periods brought. But Williams outshone his predecessors in Year 2, posting a 27:7 TD-INT ratio and driving the Bears to their first playoff win in 15 seasons. Benefiting from Ben Johnson's arrival, Williams offers hope to a Bears team largely bereft of quarterback talent over the past four decades. The team remains confident in Division II product Tyson Bagent as its backup, and Case Keenum's age-38 season will be a go in Illinois.

The Seahawks became the rare team to win a Super Bowl without a top-10 quarterback, completing a dominant playoff run with Sam Darnold's middle-class QB contract topping the payroll. Darnold made an original-ballot Pro Bowl -- that still matters, at least -- for the second straight year. While hiccups appeared along the way, the reborn former top-three pick somehow beat 2018 first-round peers Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson to a Super Bowl. Drew Lock is contracted for one more season, and while Darnold's stability made project arm Jalen Milroe an afterthought, the mobile Alabama alum remains in development.

Trevor Lawrence found his footing again under Liam Coen, validating the Jaguars' decision to hire the job-hopping assistant as head coach. The Coen-Lawrence partnership did not see much from Travis Hunter or Brian Thomas Jr., but the Jags still found a groove late in the season. Lawrence has enjoyed productive stretches in the past, not doing well to sustain them. Throwing a career-high 29 touchdown passes and avoiding injuries -- which had hindered him in 2023 and '24 -- the former No. 1 pick's arrow points up again. Journeyman Nick Mullens, who followed OC Grant Udinski from Minnesota in 2025, remains in place as a shaky backup option.

We still have to afford Jalen Hurts some grace here. He outplayed Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LIX barely a year ago and delivered an MVP-level 2022 season. Hurts, though, has struggled in odd years as the Eagles keep changing play-callers. The dual-threat option has also been known to be the subject of discord among his weapons. With ringleader A.J. Brown seemingly on his way out, Hurts will have another chance -- with first-time offensive coordinator Sean Mannion. Backup Tanner McKee is going into a contract year, giving Philly -- known to make a trade or two under Howie Roseman -- a decision to make in the not-too-distant future.

Baker Mayfield took a step back last season, but context is important here. The Buccaneers played much of the season without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, with No. 4 receiver Jalen McMillan also missing most of the campaign. Bucky Irving and multiple O-linemen missed extended stretches, and Tampa Bay will need to rebound under new OC Zac Robinson -- a Rams staffer who overlapped with Mayfield's 2022 L.A. cameo -- to avoid a housecleaning. Entering an age-31 season, Mayfield was better under Dave Canales and Liam Coen. The Bucs do not have much of a history with long-tenured QBs; Mayfield's 2026 could determine if he becomes the franchise's first true long-running starter.

Jordan Love has quietly ranked in the top five in QBR in each of the past two seasons, finishing fifth in 2024 and third last year. This growth has not led to a Packers playoff win, however, with the team's most recent postseason exit -- a collapse in Chicago -- doubling as one of the lowest moments in franchise history. Love's work should not be overlooked, however, as he has averaged at least 7.7 yards per attempt over the past two seasons. He has done so without a true No. 1 wide receiver, with his 2025 season involving lengthy absences from Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. Does the Aaron Rodgers successor have another level to reach?

The Lions quietly ranked fourth offensively last season, doing so as Dan Campbell demoted overmatched coordinator John Morton midyear. Jared Goff remains one of the NFL's safest bets, reaching 7.6 yards per attempt and 29 touchdown passes in four straight years. The 31-year-old passer will work with three-year Cardinals OC Drew Petzing, after a somewhat curious Campbell hire, in his sixth Lions season. Detroit has a safe option here, resurrecting him after the Rams saw his value crater. Campbell has also brought back Teddy Bridgewater, whose unretirement has stuck after some complications as a high school coach.

Is Brock Purdy better than Jared Goff? Probably not. But the Purdy- Mac Jones tandem impressed last season despite typical 49ers injury trouble. Jones' two-year, $7 million contract -- to link up with Kyle Shanahan years after the HC wanted to draft him -- became a tremendous value, and the 2021 first-rounder held down the fort while Purdy battled toe trouble. Purdy should be in better form in 2026, but Jones -- should he remain a 49er, which is no gimme based on the value that could be obtained in a trade -- offers premium insurance. Another solid backup cameo could earn Jones big bucks in 2027.

Jayden Daniels trudged through a lost second season, a three-injury campaign that ended after seven games. That is not a good enough reason to bump Washington out of the top 10 here. The 2024 No. 2 overall pick dazzled as a rookie and elevated the Commanders to one of the most shocking conference championship appearances in NFL history. The mobile passer will have plenty of time to prove himself once again, as this franchise has not had a true franchise-QB run since Joe Theismann's 1985 leg break. Daniels' play style and 2025 season, however, naturally brought the Commanders to re-sign Marcus Mariota (82 career starts) to a third one-year contract as the backup.

Beating one playoff team during the regular season and seeing some pivotal injury breaks go their way in the playoffs, the Patriots certainly jumped the gun on a Drake Maye-era Super Bowl berth. But Maye made tremendous progress in Year 2, narrowly losing the MVP vote to Matthew Stafford. The 2024 No. 3 overall pick played remarkably well against the Pats' admittedly soft schedule, doing so with a middling skill-position corps and an increasingly shaky O-line. Maye also battled injury trouble down the stretch. The Pats still released Josh Dobbs, appearing set to promote Tommy DeVito to the backup chair.

Dak Prescott would not be the lightning rod he is were he employed by just about anyone else, but Jerry Jones' outsized presence brings persistent heat on the Cowboys' longtime starter. This will be Year 11 for Prescott, the NFL's highest-paid player. The 32-year-old QB bounced back from an injury-marred 2024, guiding the NFL's No. 2-ranked total offense. The Cowboys' Jones-driven issues running the team somewhat overshadow Prescott's competence, but he is a top-10 quarterback. Dallas also brought in a former full-season starter (the oft-traded Sam Howell) to vie for the QB2 gig alongside cannon-armed backup Joe Milton.

Jim Harbaugh's presence has certainly benefited the Chargers, but the old-school leader's first two seasons constrained Justin Herbert. The top-shelf arm talent has been reined in, but this is still a former Pro Bowl starter with two 30-plus-touchdown seasons on his resume. The Chargers limped to the playoffs without two starting tackles last season, and Greg Roman's simplistic offense hurt Herbert in big spots -- including the past two wild-card rounds. The scrutinized QB will now play under Mike McDaniel, who should provide a big play-calling upgrade. Trey Lance also did enough to warrant a second try as the Bolts' backup.

Lamar Jackson's early-2020s injury troubles returned last season, and they may well have cost John Harbaugh his job. A diminished Jackson returned from a midseason absence, showing only glimpses of the dynamic talent that stormed to back-to-back first-team All-Pro honors. The greatest running quarterback in NFL history, Jackson has made undeniable strides as a passer. They just have not shown up in the biggest spots. With Jackson entering an age-29 season with a high-volume run-game history, the clock is ticking. The Ravens admitted a mistake with Cooper Rush last season, reinstalling Tyler Huntley as Jackson's backup and then re-signing him.

Joe Burrow's three healthy seasons place the Bengals here. It is not like patience is wearing thin for the elite passer, but more Burrow health struggles may bring down the Zac Taylor-led coaching staff's run. The most important player in Bengals history -- not yet the best, as Anthony Munoz (and now Ja'Marr Chase) have cases  -- has a Super Bowl trip and another AFC title game under his belt. He topped both those seasons statistically in 2024, only to be be let down by a concerningly overmatched defense. Approaching 30, Burrow has now missed 22 games due to injury. The Bengals re-signed 41-year-old Joe Flacco, who stubbornly views himself as an overlooked starter, to return as the backup.

Patrick Mahomes' first five seasons represent the greatest half-decade start to a career in quarterback history. He then tacked on a third Super Bowl title in Year 6, but his megastar form has not returned since the 2022 MVP season. Mahomes remains among the best, but he has lost some steam. The Kansas City icon, now 30, is coming off ACL and LCL tears. A fast healer in the past, Mahomes faces the biggest health obstacle of his career. The Chiefs tentatively expect their ace to return by Week 1, though the Justin Fields trade provides intriguing insurance. The plus runner/erratic passer heads to Missouri after a midseason Jets benching.

Matthew Stafford Hall of Fame skeptics -- this space was among them pre-2025 -- probably are fighting a losing battle after the aging great's MVP showing. While Stafford still somehow only has two original-ballot Pro Bowl nods in 17 seasons, they have come in the past two seasons. The Rams have found stability with the rocket-armed leader, who has directed the team to four playoff fields in five years. Stafford shook off summer back concerns to complete his best season, and while the Rams do not have an heir apparent, they have a splendid starter. With Stafford 38 and regularly playing through injury, time is just about up for Sean McVay's team to identify a successor.

The Allens hold the top spot here, with next to no assistance from Kyle. Josh Allen presents the best combination of recent form and upside, remaining the NFL's most impactful player due to his aerial capabilities and run-game skills. The Bills continually falling short in the playoffs has, for the most part, not been on their all-time talent. Post-Stefon Diggs receiver answers have failed. And because of the punishment Josh Allen has absorbed by age 29, the threat of a shorter prime looms. For now, though, Buffalo's centerpiece remains atop the mountain at the position. The Bills' now-Joe Brady-led coaching staff will bring back Kyle Allen after letting Mitch Trubisky walk (to the Titans).