Recent Data Suggests NY Giants Should Temper Expectations for Abdul Carter

What expectations are fair for Abdul Carter?” Kapadia wrote. “He’s looked incredible this summer, and many are predicting that he’ll step in and wreck games. I hate being the wet-blanket guy (OK, who are we kidding—I’m perfectly comfortable in this role), but that doesn’t typically happen with rookies.”

“If we look at all the rookie pass rushers who have been drafted in the top five since 2000, the average production is 5.7 sacks across a season.” 

“Only five—Julius Peppers, Bradley Chubb, Von Miller, Joey Bosa, and Ndamukong Suh—produced double-digit sacks as rookies. Could Carter join that group? Sure! But it’s not the most likely scenario.”

It is fair to argue that Carter needs some more reps before he could be uttered in the same breath as some of the greats that cane before him and which Kapadia mentions in his analysis. Carter made an appearance in all three of the Giants preseason games, but only notched 12 pass rushing snaps that finished in the bottom half of the Giants defense. 

Carter was still quite impressive in that limited workload, posting five total pressures and a 30.0% win rate that finished second to only fellow outside linebacker Trace Ford. Three of those pressures came in the preseason opener against Buffalo, where No. 51 tallied a successful pressure on as many pass-rushing snaps to show he was ready to play with the big guys.

The early efficiency in the opponents’ backfield wasn’t just against backup players, which tends to be in the exhibition window.

Alas, Carter was making plays against the Giants’ foes’ elite pass blocker as well, notably Buffalo's left tackle Dion Dawkins, whom the first-year player drove right by with his insane mobility off the edge to get in the face of the quarterback. 

It’s hard to ignore a football player of Carter’s caliber driving right past a veteran with numerous regular-season accolades on his resume and who has held that spot down for years as the Bills have made perennial runs at the postseason. Young players often struggle in their first outing, and Carter decided to capitalize on the opportunity.

With all due respect to those great aforementioned edge rushers, did any of them have the surrounding resources that Carter will have this season?

He will be teamed with three equally capable sack artists: Lawrence who can clog up multiple lanes and push linemen back into the passer with brutal power up the middle, Burns and Thibodeaux, who each ended top-20 in pass rush win rate in 2024 and the latter having a chip on his shoulder to be a more consistent presence up front. 

Even the most elite opposing offensive lines are going to have a tough time accounting for all four of those players when they are on the field at the same time.

At best, they’ll likely leave with a heavy dose of bruises, but it wouldn’t be surprising if each member, especially Carter, emerged from the scrum more often, as the other team focuses on the proven veterans early on. 

The Giants also have a few opponents on their initial slate who are dealing with injuries to the fleet of starting protectors, including the Washington Commanders who will be without their starting right guard Sam Cosmi. 

It should be a factor on their radar as New York prepares for the season opener, and to see if Carter takes advantage of it, to win some one-on-one matchups against a weaker link in the Commanders’ ranks. 

If he can get off to a fast start, then perhaps he can challenge and set a new precedent to the historic notion that rookie edge rushers don’t commonly put up double-digit numbers in their first taste of professional football.

He is certainly capable of meeting the obstacle, and many Giants fans are eager to see their latest top draft selection prove the doubters wrong.

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