Red Zone Opportunity Share: Underestimated Players

Early touchdown totals are noisy; red-zone roles are stickier. The Red Zone Opportunity Share approach (RZ-OSI) looks past the headline TDs and weighs how much of a team’s inside-the-20 work a player actually controls, adjusted by how often that offense reaches the red zone. Through two weeks, that lens points to players whose underlying opportunity should translate into steadier scoring as the season settles.

In summary, RZ-OSI = player share of team red-zone chances × team red-zone trips per game. Team red-zone trips provide crucial context—more arrivals near the goal line mean more chances to cash in. Early on, the Indianapolis Colts top the league in red-zone attempts per game (six), with the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars next (five and a half each).

Red Zone Opportunity Share – Underestimated Players (After Week 2)

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (RB)

Taylor has commanded the vast majority of Indianapolis Colts red-zone rushing through two weeks and has already mixed in a red-zone receiving score. The environment matters as much as the role: the Colts lead the NFL in red-zone trips per game, a recipe that typically turns sustained share into touchdowns over time. The usage profile looks stronger than the raw TD column suggests at this stage.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (RB)

James Conner owns Arizona Cardinals short-yardage and red-zone work early, logging five red-zone rushes plus a red-zone target through two games, but only one touchdown so far. That combination—bankable role, modest conversion—has historically evened out as sample size grows. Conner’s near-goal involvement remains the signal.

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (WR)

Ja’Marr Chase has already seen three red-zone targets and accounts for roughly sixty percent of Cincinnati Bengals red-zone looks among wide receivers through two games, yet sits on just one score. For an elite talent in a consolidated passing tree, that usage typically normalizes into touchdowns rather than fades away.

Quarterbacks rushing touchdowns:

Quarterback involvement near the goal line can temporarily depress running backs’ box scores—even when those backs dominate red-zone share. In Indianapolis, Daniel Jones has accounted for a sizable slice of the Colts’ touchdowns, a pattern that could mirror Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts–led goal-line usage. Whether that persists or not, the underlying RB opportunity is the signal.

Why this matters:

RZ-OSI favors players who (a) control their team’s red-zone pie and (b) play on offenses that arrive in scoring position frequently. That makes the index a useful tiebreaker for weekly lineup decisions and a sanity check on small-sample touchdown spikes elsewhere. Through Week 2, Indianapolis (6.0 per game) sits atop team red-zone volume, with Detroit and Jacksonville (5.5) right behind and Buffalo close thereafter—contexts that can quietly boost TD odds for entrenched red-zone options.

What to watch next week:

• Do the Colts continue to pile up red-zone entries? Does the touchdown distribution tilt back toward Taylor if short-yardage packages are defended differently?

• Do the Cardinals sustain Conner’s near-goal usage in neutral scripts? The opportunities are there!

• Does the Bengals’ red-zone tree stay condensed around Chase? Or do ancillary options siphon those high-leverage looks? And how much Joe Burrow’s injury affects their red-zone volume?