Rob Brzezinski’s first NFL Draft as Minnesota Vikings interim GM was fascinating when looking big picture

“It really wasn’t something we went in with any one particular side of the ball as a main focal point, but we wanted to make sure that we weren’t reaching beyond really good players on our board to try to even out offense defense, or, let maybe a specific need jump too far in front of a higher graded player. You know, is the way we saw it. And there was total conviction amongst the room of the selections we made.”

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell

Minnesota Vikings have a complicated relationship with the consensus board

The talk about how the Vikings approached the best player available on their board is an interesting one. In previous years, they have made multiple reaches compared to the consensus board. Personally, I use Arif Hasan’s from Wide Left, as I find it to be the most comprehensive data set in the industry. His board has over 130 NFL Draft boards, including my own, included in his data set, and there are some interesting disparities with their selections.

Let’s start at the top. The addition of Banks was a controversial one in real time, and the consensus board makes it look a little more so. A 19 pick disparity between his selection and the ranking is stark, especially with how much heavier the picks are weighted at the top. However, his injury concerns pushed him down the board.

One thing that Hasan does with the consensus board is highlight forecasters and evaluators. Even within the context of the evaluators, there can be bias that seeps into the evaluations. Forecasters had Banks at 40th and evaluators at 36th. A lot of that is arguably linked to his numerous foot injuries.

I had Banks at 17th on my big board, as I build it not including the off-field issues or medical issues. When I build up the horizontal board, that’s when I include those factors. Because there was so much unknown about a multitude of foot injuries. I spoke with an orthopedic surgeon specializing in the foot/ankle about these injuries, and he isn’t concerned about them from a long-term perspective.

That information, albeit based more on professional opinion rather than the specific patient, is important. If everyone had that information, his ranking likely changes, because a lack of information drives fear, which will push a player down the board. If Banks didn’t have the injury concerns, we’d be talking about a player potentially ranked as high as 10th overall on the board, which is the likely argument for the Vikings taking him at 18.

The rest of the class doesn’t have a ton of information to gather from. They got steals in Orange (12 spots), Tiernan (30), Demmings (12), and Claiborne (54), while overdrafting Thomas (79), Bredeson (158), and Gerhardt (357).

We know that Thomas fits the profile of what Brian Flores wants in a safety, so it makes sense. His reach is nearly identical to the 81 pick difference when they took Mekhi Blackmon at 102nd overall in 2023. The perceived reaches of Bredeson and Gerhardt are interesting. Bredeson may be considered a fullback, but he will do some tight end things. There was a massive run on day two tight ends, making getting one that much harder. He was viewed by many as the top fullback in the class, and a seamless fit for the C.J. Ham role, and what Frank Smith will cook up for him in this offense.

Gerhardt was taken so late that it was more about prioritizing your top UDFAs than anything. It’s viewed as a massive reach, but seventh-round picks often don’t make the team, so it’s less impactful of a reach than taking a player significantly higher on day one or two.

Overall, the Vikings did a relatively good job navigating the consensus board to get value. It’s not a perfect sample with the uncertainties that Banks’ ranking provides. If Brzezinski does get the job long-term, it will be interesting to look back on this and see how trends emerge.