Saints vs. Chiefs picks, predictions, props, odds for 'Monday Night Football'

John LanFranca’s Saints vs Chiefs Pick Against the Spread

Covering this number is a lot to ask of a Chiefs offense that ranks 15th in yards per play.

Kansas City has an offensive style dependent on sustaining long drives, which in turns shortens games and does not allow them to win with margin.

The Chiefs’ running backs rarely break off gains of more than 10 yards. In fact, they have the third-lowest rate of explosive rushes of any NFL team. You will continue to see an offense that faces many third downs throughout the game, with any penalty or sack having the chance to be a drive killer.

We have seen Kansas City fail to cover this type of line in recent years, and it mainly has to do with the lack of downfield options at Andy Reid’s disposal.

Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy continues to call plays in a manner conducive to limiting Patrick Mahomes‘ average depth of target (aDOT). Mahomes ranks 25th in adjusted yards per attempt and his 5.4 aDOT is the lowest of any starting quarterback in the league.

Mahomes is 33-40 against the spread (ATS) in his career when favored by more than three points. Since the beginning of 2020, as a favorite of more than a field goal, Mahomes is 21-31(40.4%) ATS.

I am expecting another tight game and for this trend to continue as Kansas City struggles to generate any type of consistent attack offensively.

Pick: Saints +5.5 (-110) | Play to +4.5

Billy Ward’s Over/Under MNF Prediction

The Chiefs offense has been a letdown — by their standards — through the early part of the 2024 season. They haven’t been bad —  ranking 10th in DVOA and 14th in points per game — but that’s not what we expect from a Patrick Mahomes offense.

To make matters worse, their starting running back (Kareem Hunt) was a free agent three weeks ago, and their top receiver (Rashee Rice) is out for the foreseeable future with a leg injury.

Things have been better for the Saints, who started the season with back-to-back 40-point games. They’ve fallen back to earth since, putting up 36 combined points over their last two weeks.

More importantly, their offense is also extremely banged up. They’ll be without at least two of their starting interior offensive linemen, with the third questionable but unable to practice all week.

A cluster of injuries to one position is hugely impactful, as most teams don’t even carry three backups on the interior O-Line on their 53 man roster.

Neither team will have a particularly reliable way to move the ball, which should turn Monday Night Football into a defensive struggle.

Pick: Under 43.5 (-112) | Play to Under 43 (-110)

Xavier Worthy Player Props

Worthy is an exciting player. He’s one of the fastest wide receivers in the league and he has already made some splash plays for the Chiefs.

However, he hasn’t garner a lot of targets, and I’m not expecting Rashee Rice’s absence to drastically change Worthy’s role.

Rice was hurt on Kansas City’s fifth offensive play in Week 4, so we basically got an entire game of the Chiefs offense without him.

Worthy posted a 10.3% target share, which tied with Justin Watson for third on the team. That’s a weak mark, and it’s even worse than where Worthy was heading into the game (12%).

Kansas City has been extremely conservative through the air — case in point: Patrick Mahomes is dead last in aDOT and second to last in deep-throw rate among quarterbacks with 50-plus dropbacks.

Worthy leads the team with a 12.1 aDOT — no other Chief is above 10. He’s going to get a few deep shots, but the volume will be underwhelming given the nature of the Chiefs’ passing game.

One last note on Rice vs. Worthy ..

Rice has been given the “Slant Boy” moniker, but he’s only run seven slants this season. He’s been targeted on all seven routes, turning them into six catches for 100 yards.

Worthy has also run seven slant routes … with no targets.

Pick: Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 Receptions (-105)