Just like that, it's Week 3 in the NFL with the Steelers visiting the Browns. The new trend out of sportsbooks appears to be "Sweat Free Bets" on Same Game Parlays for Thursday night. After FanDuel got the party started, DraftKings is now offering the same promotion. This is great news for us, as any three-leg or greater SGP we place on either book will be refunded to us if it loses. DraftKings' promotion seems to be superior for us tonight, as we can use a boost on the parlay to up the odds.
It's looking like it could be an ugly game tonight due to some heavy winds and gusts in Cleveland. However, all this does is present a game script we can build around.
We're going back to the same model we ran out last Thursday: honing in on two stars to have a big night. It helps to tie outcomes to fewer players for parlays like this, and while Travis Kelce did break our hearts last week, we had Mike Williams pegged for the big game.
With gusts heading north of 30 mph, there's an expectation that plenty of running is in store tonight. With the quality of quarterbacks on these two teams in Mitchell Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett, it's a fair assumption that runs are going to come.
Nick Chubb has started the season on a tear, finishing with 141 and 87 yards in his first two games, scoring three times in Week 2. He's taken 39 carries in these two games and that volume should very much remain tonight. Pittsburgh's defense has been tough to score against this year, but it certainly takes a hit with T.J. Watt out. In Week 1, Joe Mixon ran for 82 yards against this defense, and in Week 2, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson combined for 118 yards on the ground. Chubb and Hunt should both be in for good games, but we're opting for Chubb leading the team in touches.
Najee Harris has had two big games against Cleveland in his young career, rushing for 91 and 188 in two matchups last season, scoring in each. Harris has not had a strong start to his year with yards, but he's still the clear top dog in this backfield, taking 25 carries to Jaylen Warren's seven. Cleveland's run defense has been strong this season, but this is strictly a bet on expected volume. When Harris gets 19 carries or more, he is over 79.5 rushing yards in seven of nine games. That's the workload we are expecting from the Steelers' running back tonight.
Enjoy the game!
Celtics coach Ime Udoka facing a potential season-long suspension — A strange story came out of the NBA yesterday, as reports suggest Celtics coach Ime Udoka had consensual relations with a Celtics staffer. Boston is prepared to suspend the head coach that guided them to an NBA Finals appearance, with the length rumored to be one year. Joe Mazzulla, an assistant coach for the Celtics, is expected to be the interim coach this season. Boston is still the favorite to win the NBA Finals, currently +550 on DraftKings.
College football Week 4 begins tonight — We have a handful of games tonight in college football and Saturday will be here before you know it. Best to get ahead now, and we have you covered with a look around the landscape for Week 4. Conference play is getting started, which means quality games all day long. A few that catch our eye include Florida-Tennessee, Wisconsin-Ohio State and Arkansas-Texas A&M.
Robert Sarver preparing to sell the Suns and Mercury — After an internal investigation was published which revealed troubling comments and actions from Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver, Sarver is now expected to be out of the NBA. The Suns and Mercury owner is selling his ownership stake in each team.
Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll
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