Scout's view: 49ers' Trey Lance is fool's gold, but he's not solely to blame

Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers QB/lightning rod Trey Lance struggled mightily in his preseason debut Sunday, a fact that doesn't surprise me at all. The third-year QB, however, is not solely to blame for his struggles.

Lance didn't put a first-round grade on himself coming out of North Dakota State, a FCS powerhouse. Mainstream draft media — see ESPN.com and NFL.com, for example — and the storied 49ers franchise did that, and by doing so, they spotlight the dangers of grossly over-grading college football prospects. 

When I first studied Lance on game film in the fall of 2020, I concluded he was a raw, unpolished version of Donovan McNabb, who had a good career with the Philadelphia Eagles. But I put a fifth-to-sixth-round grade on Lance. He looked more like a practice-squad prospect, not one of the best QBs in the draft. 

Longtime NFL talent evaluator Dick Haley was the director of player personnel during my time with the Jets from 1998-2002. He taught me that a player needed to look dominant at a lower level of competition to even have a chance in the NFL. 

Lance didn't show me that against FCS-level competition and defenders, nearly all of whom weren't NFL-caliber players. 

I didn't think more about him until "LanceMania" took off leading up to the 2021 NFL Draft. Even longtime NFL executive Michael Lombardi got into the act, floating the idea Washington loved Lance and might be willing to unload all their draft picks for him. 

What?!

By this time, I'd already gone back and studied film of Lance's games against Central Arkansas from 2020 as well as 2019 games against James Madison, North Dakota and Butler. I pegged Lance as an undraftable free agent.

In the 2020 game against Central Arkansas, his only fall appearance during a COVID-plagued season, he struggled to complete short passes. He went 15-for-30 for 149 yards.

Lance's Pro Day created even more hype, but I wasn't impressed. He seemed too low energy and too unpolished to make an impact in the NFL. However, 92.5% of mainstream draft media platforms put a first-round grade on him. Then the 49ers did the unthinkable, trading three first-round draft picks to the Miami Dolphins to move up to the No. 3 overall spot. 

I watched video from Sunday's 49ers-Raiders preseason game, and it only re-confirmed my initial scouting report on Lance. It's unlikely the 23-year-old will live up to the public's expectations that the media and 49ers have created.