Scout's view: Does Cowboys' Dak Prescott merit a contract extension?

Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL.

With Dak Prescott heading into the final season of his contract in 2024, an extension for the eighth-year Cowboys QB is a hot topic. Dallas ownership seems intent on getting a deal done.

"He's under contract now, but we'd like to do this after the season," Cowboys executive vice president and CEO Stephen Jones recently told Dianna Russini of The Athletic. "Once the season is over, we will focus on that. Dak will be our quarterback."   

But does Prescott deserve an extension?

His raw numbers this season are strong. Prescott has completed 186-of-265 passes (70.2 completion %, third in NFL) for 2,011 yards and 13 TD passes (tied for ninth). He also has five interceptions, a pace for 11 — well below the league-leading 15 he had last season. Prescott is also on pace for 4,273 yards passing, a figure he has eclipsed twice in his career. 

The eight-year veteran also has the fourth-highest QBR in the NFL (67.5), behind only Buffalo's Josh Allen, San Francisco's Brock Purdy and Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. (QBR, released in 2011 by ESPN, incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. It's much more reflective of a QB's true value than the traditional passer rating.)

I turned on the tape of Prescott against the Giants (Sept. 10), Jets (Sept. 17), Cardinals (Sept. 24), Patriots (Oct. 1), 49ers (Oct. 8), Chargers (Oct. 16), Rams (Oct. 29) and Eagles (Nov. 5). One word comes to mind when I watch Prescott play: "efficient."

He throws a barrage of short passes all over the field and often goes play-action, driving the ball even farther downfield. Although he has a career-high completion percentage, I was alarmed by his average ball placement. Too many passes either sailed way high or came in too low. Prescott had 20 passes defended in these eight games, mainly because of inconsistent footwork in the pocket. He's more of a "touch passer" who relies on his instincts when throwing. 

Prescott also hasn't been a "big comeback QB" this season for Dallas (5-3). We saw that in the 42-10 loss to the 49ers when he threw a season-high three interceptions and completed a season-low 58.3% trying to play catch-up. 

Prescott has rebounded, winning two out of the last three. It could've been three out of three had he not come up three yards short of the end zone on his last pass against Philadelphia as time expired. 

A week after the San Francisco debacle, Cowboys legend Emmitt Smith said on ESPN he wouldn't give Prescott an extension. I think the NFL's all-time leading rusher is flat-out wrong here. Here are the Prescott attributes that stand out for me:

1. He's extremely comfortable in the offense 

Like an excellent basketball point guard, Prescott spreads the ball around with ease while throwing an easy ball to catch and demonstrating decent arm strength.  He shows confidence in knowing where he is throwing — and in a timely fashion. He has the eighth-quickest release in the league (2.66 seconds), per NEXT GEN STATS.

2. He's focused

Defenses have sacked Prescott 22 times — the eighth most in the NFL, per StatMuse  — but Prescott doesn't flinch under pressure. He frequently waits until the last possible second to throw, thus giving his receivers the best opportunity to make a catch.  

3. Spreads the ball around 

Six different receivers have caught 10 or more passes on the Cowboys. Prescott demonstrates he sees the field well by keeping all his receivers involved, an unpredictability that can wear out defenses. 

Bottom line

Prescott is the glue that holds this offense together, and he fits perfectly into an offense whose play-caller (Mike McCarthy) is also the head coach. The Cowboys have the NFL's No. 10 offense (346.5 YPG). Replacing Prescott with a known quantity in the league or someone in the draft would be a huge roll of the dice. Besides, Dallas isn't going to be in a position to draft one of the top quarterbacks in a draft replete with them.

My advice to the Cowboys: Pay the man.