This is the seventh year I’ve been covering the NFL, and usually by this point in the calendar on the eve of the season I have some hot takes bubbling up — gut feelings sparked by months of following the news cycle, offseason movement and training camp reports.

Having a platform like this means I can pull receipts when I’m right (a career resurgence for Sam Darnold, Bill Belichick getting fired). However, it’s also a double-edged sword, keeping a record of when I went out on a limb and crashed (the 2023 Panthers winning the division, among other flops). 

But this year, for whatever reason, the takes don’t feel quite as hot. There are a few things I feel strongly about, and we’ll dig into those momentarily, but overall there’s a sense of lukewarm when it comes to evaluating the pre-2025 consensus. I don’t think the NFL world of fans and analysts is that far off the mark when projecting the upcoming season, for the most part. 

So here’s a list of six predictions, some bolder than others, some made with more confidence than others, as we get ready for the season to kick off tomorrow night. 

The Commanders take a step back

The Commanders went from the No. 2 pick in the draft to the No. 2 team in the NFC last year thanks to an overhaul of all of their most important leadership positions — owner, general manager, head coach and quarterback — that supercharged their 2024 season. The brightest star of the bunch is QB Jayden Daniels, who scored 31 total touchdowns, ran for nearly 900 yards and generally did not play like a rookie en route to a 12-5 season. He seems like the real deal and reason to believe the long-term future in Washington is bright. 

But Daniels could be better and the Commanders could still end up worse in 2025 than in 2024 because there’s so many elements of last year that will be hard to repeat. The 2024 Commanders caught lightning in a bottle. They had great health across the board. It seemed like every position group either lived up to or dramatically exceeded expectations, even ones the team was concerned about like the offensive line. A lot of credit belongs to OC Kliff Kingsbury who might have had one of the best coaching efforts of his career, however it’s worth noting even Kingsbury was regarded as an unknown going into last year after how his time with the Cardinals fizzled out. He has to prove he can stay ahead of the curve with more teams gunning for him now. 

Washington also got just plain lucky in some ways. The Commanders were 8-2 in one-score games, including the famous Hail Mary win against the Bears, and historically those tend to play out much closer to 50-50 over time. Washington went an incredible 20 for 23 on fourth down attempts (87 percent), and that’s another area in which some regression feels inevitable. 

While the team invested a lot in getting better this offseason, swinging trades for LT Laremy Tunsil and WR Deebo Samuel and adding veterans like DE Von Miller and DT Javon Kinlaw, it still feels like there are part of the roster that are lagging behind where expectations are. For instance, if the team is going to dethrone the Eagles in the NFC East and as Super Bowl contenders, a pass rush spearheaded by a 36-year-old Miller and DE Dorance Armstrong does not seem like it has enough firepower. The Commanders also have one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. Beyond Miller, they’re relying on 35-year-old LB Bobby Wagner and a 31-year-old Tunsil. Samuel and CB Marshon Lattimore aren’t over 30 yet but at 29, they’re approaching the historical age cliffs for their positions. 

There’s also just the simple fact that the Commanders aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year. They’ve gone from three prime-time games to at least five with the potential for more with flex scheduling. Add it all up, and this Commanders team faces significant headwinds in 2025. I think it’s more likely the team takes a step back as opposed to toppling the Eagles in the division, and it’s not out of the question that the Commanders could end up missing the playoffs. 

Giants QB Jaxson Dart plays sooner than you think

This prediction has become less and less bold with each passing week, especially now that it seems like Dart has jumped veteran QB Jameis Winston for the No. 2 backup job behind starting QB Russell Wilson. Dart began training camp as the clear No. 3 behind the two veterans, and the initial messaging from the Giants was that they were committed to giving Dart a redshirt year behind Wilson if necessary. 

But after a strong preseason, it’s clear the team thinks Dart is ready to assume the reins if Wilson goes down to injury. And if HC Brian Daboll is that confident in Dart now, there is a much higher chance that he’s ready to turn things over to the guy New York traded up in the first round to draft after Daboll championed his case. First-round quarterbacks tend to play sooner rather than later, especially when there’s pressure on the head coach like there is for Daboll right now. 

Giants owner John Mara issued a stay of execution for Daboll after last season, but it seemed more about Mara not wanting to have a quick hook with another coach or practicing what he’s been preaching to other owners about racking up fired coaching buyout costs. A few Giants reporters have alluded to Mara’s patience potentially extending past this year but it does feel like the team needs to show signs of progress for that to happen. 

Progress equals wins. Unfortunately the Giants’ schedule is much more difficult than normal for a last-place team. The first half of the season is an absolute gauntlet:

• Week 1: @ Commanders
• Week 2: @ Cowboys
• Week 3: Chiefs
• Week 4: Chargers
• Week 5: @ Saints
• Week 6: Eagles (Thursday)
• Week 7: @ Broncos
• Week 8: 49ers
• Week 9: @ Eagles

Teams often look for a soft spot to ramp rookie quarterbacks into the lineup if they can, like a bye week. But New York doesn’t have a bye until Week 14 and there aren’t a lot of easier matchups, outside of that Week 5 visit to New Orleans. With two road division games and two AFC West contests, it’s quite possible the Giants could be 0-4 heading into that game, with the pressure to turn to Dart mounting. For me, Dart Watch starts in Week 5, and I’d be surprised if he’s not in the lineup by November. 

This also brings me to a secondary, smaller prediction. The Giants have gotten a little bit of buzz this offseason after some notable free agent signings to fortify the defense, three new quarterbacks and a first-rounder in OLB Abdul Carter who looks like he could be a stud from Day 1. Carter joins OLB Brian Burns, DT Dexter Lawrence and OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux for what could be an outstanding frontline on defense, hearkening back to past successful Giants squads. No one’s been willing to go out on the limb and predict a playoff berth but there’s certainly some positivity around the Giants from some analysts. 

I’m not falling for it. For me, coaching is still a major question mark on both sides of the ball. Giants DC Shane Bowen has a mixed resume, and I’m not buying Daboll’s pitch that all the offensive issues fell at the feet of former QB Daniel Jones last year. The offensive line has better depth but LT Andrew Thomas still doesn’t seem to be 100 percent and any time he misses is a major negative. The rest of the unit feels closer to average at best.

It’s also going to be harder to translate any improvements the Giants do make to the win column because of how hard the schedule is. For a coach on the hot seat like Daboll, those wins are crucial to buy credibility and keep the team from checking out or succumbing to the outside noise that is sure to mount with every loss. It’s just a tall task, and the odds are far higher that this is Daboll’s final year than they are for him to be back in 2026. 

The Colts and Dolphins finish with top-10 draft slots

Miami and Indianapolis are the charter members of what I have been calling the All-Bad Vibes Team this offseason. Ironically these two teams are set to face off in Week 1, which means one of them is guaranteed to feel some heat after Week 1 while the other gets a temporary reprieve. However I see the season finishing similarly for both teams, with a lot of losses, a top-10 draft pick and some major coaching or front office changes. 

Neither team is as bad on paper as the Browns, Saints or Titans, the current betting favorites for the No. 1 pick. The Dolphins have 19 wins over the past two seasons and a playoff berth. The Colts have 17 and were within a whisker of the postseason in 2023. But things just feel iffy around both franchises. There’s a sense of underachievement that permeates both organizations. There haven’t been a whole lot of positive headlines around either team so far in 2025. 

For the Dolphins, there are persistent culture questions that have lasted for multiple seasons, as well as yet another offseason defined more by the players who were cut, traded or allowed to walk rather than the players acquired as commensurate reinforcements. For the Colts, the wandering in the desert of quarterback purgatory seems like it will continue for another year, and the specter of an ownership change looms for the coming offseason. Both Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel and Colts HC Shane Steichen are on the hot seat, as are their front office counterparts, Miami GM Chris Grier and Indy GM Chris Ballard. 

There are real roster holes and challenges to overcome for both squads, too, including suspect secondaries, questions along the offensive line and concerns at quarterback — albeit different flavors of concern. All of it combines to create a shaky environment ripe for fracture under the inevitable pressure of an NFL season, even if both teams on paper should be closer to average than bottom ten. 

Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson wins DPOY

Individual awards can be hard to predict, and there’s stiff competition for Defensive Player of the Year in particular. There needs to be the proper confluence of both individual and team success. But last year Hutchinson was well on pace to run away with the award. He had 7.5 sacks in four and a half games, and those weren’t just flukes. PFF charted him with a ludicrous 45 total pressures on 198 pass rushing snaps, and ESPN had him with a pass rush win rate of 35 percent — nearly 10 percent higher than Texans DE Danielle Hunter who finished as the 2024 season leader at 26 percent. 

The injury obviously was a major setback but as far as big injuries go, a bone break is far easier to overcome than a major ligament injury. Hutchinson should pick right back up where he left off and the word out of training camp in Detroit was that he had. The Lions have continued to make moves to reinforce their defense, so the supporting cast around Hutchinson should be better, helping set him up to make more plays. If the Lions avoid taking too much of a step back in the win-loss column as they manage a transition from both coordinators on offense and defense, all the ingredients are in place for Hutchinson to have a monster year and win top honors. 

At least one hyped-up breakout squad flops instead

There are a few different teams getting some steam as candidates to take a big step forward in 2024, beyond just the generic rosy outlook 95 percent of teams get before the reality of the regular season sets in. 

• The Broncos have much higher expectations than last year when their betting line was set at 5.5 wins and almost everyone thought they were in for a rough year (emphasis on almost everyone if you’ll pardon the horn toot). Denver HC Sean Payton has been openly discussing a Super Bowl and telling everyone who will listen that QB Bo Nix is on pace to be one of the greats. 
• The Buccaneers have won the NFC South four straight years and are gunning for a fifth with a roster that looks as good on paper as anything they’ve put together since winning the Super Bowl with Tom Brady. 
• The Rams have made the playoffs each of the last two years in what were supposed to be transitional seasons, and they’ve got a blend of old and young talent that could be dynamite in 2025. 
• New Jaguars HC Liam Coen has eyes on being the first-year coach who hits the ground running, and the work he did with Tampa Bay and QB Baker Mayfield last year has a lot of people excited for the potential of Jacksonville and QB Trevor Lawrence. There’s a lot of talent on both sides of the ball as well. 
• The trade for OLB Micah Parsons has created a ton of excitement around the Packers, who were viewed as a pretty solid squad already. Adding a player of Parsons’ caliber feels like a move that has the potential to take Green Bay from good to great. 

It’s hard to translate preseason hype to real success, however. Most of the time it feels closer to a 50-50 proposition on whether the teams that come out of the offseason with a lot of buzz are able to carry it over, and that suggests at least one of these teams is headed for a flop. 

Which one specifically is a matter of opinion, and it’s tough to isolate and hone in on a bear case for any specific one of these teams. I tend to buy the hype on the Broncos as a playoff contender but when it comes to picking a different team than the Chiefs to win the AFC West, I’ll believe it when I see it for the time being. I think there’s also a chance Nix is getting his stock overcooked, and I say this as someone who was high on him pre-draft and thought he had real starting talent when a lot of analysts overlooked him. 

Getting Parsons is great for the Packers and quiets some of the hot seat rumors that had begun to bubble up around GM Brian Gutekunst and HC Matt LaFleur. But it doesn’t lower the expectations any for the two. If the Packers somehow miss the playoffs or get knocked out sooner than they should, the heat will crank back up. 

If Rams QB Matthew Stafford is healthy, the team should be in a great spot, but Stafford’s August back issues make that feel tenuous, even if the veteran is one of the toughest players in football when it comes to playing through things. First-year coaches are always a risk, and while Coen was impressive as a play-caller last year, being a head coach is a different job. 

If I had to pick one of these teams to fade, it would probably be the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has some major injuries to deal with to start the season that could drag the record down, and while I’ve come around on HC Todd Bowles as a decent NFL leading man, I do think his conservatism caps the ceiling of the Buccaneers for as long as he’s in charge. The team should still be the favorites in the NFC South but I’m not sure they’re ready to take a step forward as one of the conference’s elite teams like they’re talking about in Tampa. 

The Raiders defense will be cheeks

This is another prediction that maybe isn’t the boldest but it is one I feel like I have a good degree of confidence in. New Raiders HC Pete Carroll may have presided over some of the best defenses in NFL history with the Seahawks, but in recent years that side of the ball had become a real challenge for him in Seattle, especially schematically. Carroll has had time on the sidelines to self-scout and he’ll be teaming up with a defensive coordinator in Patrick Graham who is held in solid regard around the league. 

There are some real personnel challenges to overcome, however. Starting DE Maxx Crosby is the lynchpin of the whole unit and an outstanding pass rusher. The defensive line around him is not as strong as the Raiders would hope. Former first-round DE Tyree Wilson is trying to find his footing, DE Malcolm Koonce is coming off a torn ACL and DT Christian Wilkins was a shocking August cut after the team took issue with how he was handling rehab for a foot injury. 

A full-force defensive line might have helped make up for the major questions in the back seven. Linebacker was in dire shape and is still a weakness even after adding veteran Germaine Pratt and a reunion between Carroll and safety-turned LB Jamal Adams. The secondary has a lot of young players who will get tossed in the deep end and will learn on the fly. 

To sum it up, the Raiders defense has major scheme and personnel questions, the combination of which is going to be hard to overcome.