Sorry, Aaron, but we like the Titans tonight

We certainly feel that a threshold has been crossed this NFL season. We watch how the spreads move each week and how certain teams are valued. It's that constant vigilance that has us questioning tonight's board. There appears to be an opportunity to pounce.

Is tonight a market overreaction on the Packers?

Last week, Green Bay was +5 underdogs at home to the Dallas Cowboys. We certainly liked Dallas in that one after what we saw from the Packers in the past few games. The Packers mounted a big fourth-quarter comeback before winning 31-28 in OT. Tonight, they host the Tennessee Titans, and Green Bay is back to being the betting favorites with the current line Packers -3.5 in Wisconsin.

To us, this feels like a massive overcorrection and overreaction from both sportsbooks and the betting public. The Titans are tied for the best overall record ATS at 7-2. Tennessee is 6-3, and that success has been thanks to their defense, owning one of the league's top rush defenses and pass-rushing units. Tennessee is tied for the fourth-most sacks on the year and are allowing the fourth-fewest yards per rush. PFF rankings agree with these traditional stats, slotting the Titans in as the sixth-best defense in the NFL.

We know how Tennessee's offense functions: give Derrick Henry the ball. All the numbers suggest that Henry is going to pile up a big game against this Green Bay defense. The Packers are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game (140.6) and the fifth-highest yards per rush attempt (4.8). With the Packers down two of their best linebackers in Rashan Gary and now De'Vondre Campbell, this defensive weakness figures to only grow more prominent as the season progresses. Tony Pollard had 115 yards on the ground last week against this defense.

With a big Henry game feeling imminent, and a strong defense built to slow down Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, this spread seems to us like an apology tour to Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. This Packers team has not looked good, while the Titans have been the most profitable betting team of the year. Our path forward is clear.

Take the Titans +3.5 tonight.

In the news ...

LaMelo Ball reinjures ankle after making season debut just five days prior — Hornets star guard LaMelo Ball sprained his ankle in a Wednesday night loss to the Pacers, the same injury that sidelined him for Charlotte's first 13 games. It's not an ideal development for the young All-Star, and another extended absence would likely hamper the Hornets' ability to remain competitive in the East. The Hornets are currently 4-12.

Reports: interim Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla is expected to become full-time coach — Joe Mazzulla inherited a peculiar situation when the Celtics suspended Ime Udoka for the season, but the strong start has given the organization confidence he can be the guy. Adrian Wojnarowski reports all the pieces are in place for Mazzulla to become the permanent coach and remain in that position beyond this season. The Celtics currently own the best record in the NBA at 12-3 and are the favorites at +550 to win the NBA championship this spring.

Unanimous Cy Young winners named in both leagues — We had a clean sweep in Cy Young voting to wrap up the 2022 season, with Sandy Alcantara and Justin Verlander taking home every single first-place vote in their respective leagues. Alcantara, the Miami Marlins ace, led the NL in complete games and innings pitched, and was second in ERA with his 2.28 mark. Verlander won his third Cy Young for the World Series champs, finishing the year with a 1.75 ERA in 175 innings pitched.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll