State of the 49ers: What the Team Needs to Win a Super Bowl

The Yorks have been criticized for not spending the $46 million in cap room at their disposal. Using that on an offensive lineman, a wide receiver, and a safety would make a substantial difference in the team’s chances this year. However, if the Yorks conclude that it doesn’t lead to a ring, that decision can be justified, and they are one of the league’s top spenders.

The additional criticism is that the Yorks are saving money to spend on their European soccer teams. To me, the soccer investment is the Yorks looking to expand their sports empire and net worth to prevent the need to sell more equity in the 49ers. They want to deepen their own pockets to maintain their current stake in the team. The cost of running an NFL team continues to skyrocket due to the TV money driving up the cap.

What do the Yorks need?

A general manager who builds the team with an eye on the cost. Kyle Shanahan has final say on personnel and, in my view, is this team’s true GM. Financial management of the roster is not his concern.

The proof of this, Shanahan pushing to keep Brandon Aiyuk rather than trading him. A seasoned GM would likely make the trade to get younger and cheaper, plus deal for the 20th pick to take advantage of the best offensive line draft in over a decade. Shanahan, desperate for a ring, pushes to keep Aiyuk instead. That’s part of Shanahan’s negative 10%.

Another aspect of 90% solutions is that they fit within a comfort zone. 100% solutions are dominant; they impose their will on a culture, but they also win championships. Are the Yorks willing to go out and get their own Howie Roseman after firing Kyle Shanahan? Not yet, and even when they do move on, the GM is far more likely to be a comfort zone internal hire like Tariq Ahmad, and the same at head coach with Robert Saleh.

HEAD COACH / GENERAL MANAGER

Kyle Shanahan, the gift and the curse. One of the game’s best offensive minds as offensive coordinator/game planner and play designer. However, as a coach, he can make game management mistakes, such as the freeze in Philly on DeVonta Smith’s trap. As GM, his stubborn refusal to invest fully in the offensive line, and a clear weakness at quarterback evaluation, are poison pills.

What does Shanahan need?

To work with a real GM, where he has input but not the final say. However, after being the holy trinity in Santa Clara, Shanahan may be unwilling to give up power going forward. If that holds true and he is always coach and GM for the rest of his career, then in my opinion he will go ringless. Shanahan the GM denies Shanahan the head coach.

As for John Lynch, by his own quote, “Kyle has the 53, I have the 90.” Lynch is the team statesman, the Kyle translator. A class act, a needed buffer, but his role is limited.

THE ROSTER

They’re depending on the top seven to carry them this year, knowing that group is older and fragile. Christian McCaffrey will be on a contract drive and push for a heavy workload. Will Shanahan say no, we have Brian Robinson and need more balance? That doesn’t seem likely.

Micah Parsons getting $47 million per year impacts Nick Bosa, who will ask for a new deal next year even though he’s under contract through 2028. A GM factoring in cost would consider dealing him; Shanahan would not.

The 49ers haven’t drafted a star since Bosa and Deebo Samuel; they need Mykel Williams to hit, and for Ricky Pearsall to stay healthy and ascend.

Next year’s draft will presumably focus on the offensive line, with tackles Spencer Fano of Utah and Isaiah World of Oregon topping the shopping list. Most draft analysts believe 2027 is the real gold mine, one of the best draft classes in well over a decade. Will the Niners react to that? Probably not.

My guess is if the Niners move on from Shanahan it’s after the 2027 season, when Shanahan, Lynch and Brock Purdy can all be let go with minimal financial impact.

As for this year, if they stay healthy, the optimistic scenario is the Niners beat Tampa Bay in the wild card round and then fall to Philly in the divisional. Pessimistically, they can go 10-7 and still miss the playoffs on tiebreakers, or injuries hit, and the season is lost.

To me, the Niners are in a status quo holding pattern through the 2027 season, and then significant change could be coming. If the replacements are 90% solutions, more of the same. If the Yorks are willing to gamble on 100% solutions, and can find them, the organization takes a major step forward.