Steelers now control their own path to the playoffs

The Steelers have spent most of the season fighting uphill, waiting for the right breaks to fall their way. Now, after a late surge and a little chaos elsewhere in the AFC, the picture has finally shifted.

Sunday’s win against the Baltimore Ravens created some separation in the division, as the Steelers improved to 7-6, while the Ravens fell to 6-7. The other meaningful outcome on Sunday was the Cincinnati Bengals’ loss to the Buffalo Bills, which dropped the former to 4-9 and out of the conversation for the division crown. The Cleveland Browns also lost, falling to 3-10 on the season, mathematically eliminated from the postseason.

With the Ravens and Bengals playing one another this weekend, and two more AFC North games on their own schedule, Pittsburgh controls its path to the playoffs — and the only thing standing between them and a postseason return is how they finish from here.

The Next Three Games

The Steelers will spend some time on the road over the next three games, but first they get to host a resurging 6-7 Miami Dolphins team on Monday night at Acrisure Stadium. Miami has won five straight, recently defeating the Bills, Commanders (in overtime), Saints and Jets. Three of those games were played at home, and of course, three of those were against opponents with losing records.

It will be interesting to see how the Dolphins play in a colder climate, in primetime, and against steady opposition. The presumption is that Pittsburgh can stack back-to-back wins for the first time since Week 6. If they do, they’ll have a bus trip to Detroit to take on a formidable, but also vulnerable Lions team.

Dan Campbell’s Lions aren’t the same team from one year ago, but they still feature an offense scoring a league-best 30+ points-per-game, along with a top five pass and run unit. Their defense, however, is much like Pittsburgh’s, in that they’re middling at best when not producing turnovers: something they’re also adept at.

Even if you chalk the Lions game up as a potential loss, the Steelers have a shot to regain momentum the following week on another bus trip to Cleveland. The Browns offense is amongst the worst in the league, and while their defense is formidable – they’re currently tops against the pass – this is likely a broken franchise the Steelers will be up against.

The Baltimore Ravens

Steelers Nation needs to keep an eye on the Ravens, who sit one game back in the AFC North standings. Currently, Pittsburgh has a head-to-head tie over Baltimore, which would still give the Steelers the division lead.

A Steelers collapse – losing to more than the Detroit Lions over the next three weekends – could cede the division to Baltimore. However, the Ravens have their own business to take care of, first with a hot rematch on the road against the Bengals, then a hosting the 11-2 New England Patriots.

That will be Baltimore’s final home game, as they then take a trip to Green Bay to face the 9-3-1 Packers before bouncing around to Pittsburgh for the final week of the season.

AFC North Title Game?

If the Ravens want any chance to keep pace with Pittsburgh, they’ll have to win all of their next three games and hope for the Steelers to drop two of them. Any other outcome could setup a Week 18 “winner takes all” situation, even if the Ravens come into town one game behind. That’s due to Baltimore’s strength of schedule, which could be a determining tiebreaker if both the Ravens and Steelers end the season with the same record.

That’s why it’s paramount that the Steelers take care of business over the next few weeks. Dropping an out of conference loss to the Lions wouldn’t be devastating, however, a rematch with the Ravens could be for all of the marbles – meaning that Pittsburgh must win two of their next three and definitively beat Baltimore at Acrisure Stadium in the regular season finale to control their path to the playoffs.