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Sunday Six-Pack: NFL Conference Championship weekend betting guide
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) after scoring a touchdown. Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday Six-Pack: NFL Conference Championship weekend betting guide

This is the last Sunday of the season that will have more than one game, and we best make the most of it with another winning week on our favorite looks. We've put both conference championships under the microscope this week, and what has resulted is the six picks that stand out above the rest.

Last weekend, our looks went 4-2, moving the season to a strong 64-49-1 (56.6%). Here's to another profitable Sunday. Let's crack open a fresh six-pack.

Until something changes: Chiefs +4 (-110 DraftKings)

This spread continues to move more in the favor of the Ravens, which might flag to be careful here. However, we view the movement more as a gift, as we were prepared to take Kansas City at +3 and now get an extra point. Baltimore is the better team, but if last week showed us anything it's that we should not be fading Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. He's now 9-1-1 ATS as the underdog, this feels like a field goal difference type of game.

Little bit here, little bit there: Isiah Pacheco over 82.5 rushing & receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

Kansas City running back Isiah Pacheco has been a force of late, racking up 88+ total yards from scrimmage in six of his past seven games. A large bulk of that production has come on the ground, with Pacheco averaging 85.1 rushing yards per game in this recent seven-game stretch. That's great news, considering the Ravens allow the seventh-most yards per rush this year. Expect KC to lean on Pacheco early and often. We prefer this prop, as Baltimore also is vulnerable to receptions from backs, and Pacheco has been chipping in with some catches in addition to his rushing work.

Return of the Mark: Mark Andrews over 3.5 receptions (+120 FanDuel)

Mark Andrews is expected back this weekend, and his presence would be a welcome development for this Baltimore offense. This play carries some risk, but if Andrews is active, we expect him to see the ball, and all we're asking for here is a measly four catches. Andrews has caught 4+ balls in eight of his nine healthy games this year and 33 of his last 43, including five last time he saw the Chiefs. Dalton Kincaid just caught five balls against this defense, and KC has allowed nearly five receptions/game to TEs this season.

We don't rock with Brock: Lions +7.5 (-115 FanDuel)

We liked Detroit on Monday, and we still like them here as the week wraps up. Jared Goff and this offense are downright lethal and can beat you in a variety of ways, and San Francisco's defense hasn't been the world-beater you might consider it to be. Then there's Brock Purdy, who we (read: this writer) have definitively determined he's nothing more than an average QB. He can be beaten and flustered, and this just feels like too many points in what should be a shootout.

One order of fireworks please: Detroit-San Francisco over 51.5 points (-112 DraftKings)

Speaking of a shootout, let's roll that analysis over into this one. Both defenses have had trouble slowing down opposing passing games, which is a great thing when you have the amount of talent that both offenses have here. Points should be flowing throughout, and we like both QBs to finish with 300+ yards and power the over in this one.

Giving him another chance: Brandon Aiyuk over 74.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

We bet on Aiyuk last week, and he did not deliver, finishing with 32 yards. We're giving him a chance to bounce back as he might become the focal point with Deebo Samuel banged up. The true kicker here is that the Lions have allowed the most 20+ yard passes per game this season. Aiyuk is San Fran's deep threat, and when he catches a 20+ yard ball this year, he's averaging 94.5 yards per game, going over this line in eight of 13 games.


Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use. 


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