Sunday Six-Pack: NFL Week 1 betting guide

Home dogs: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-133 DraftKings)

We considered Pittsburgh moneyline at +110, but instead we're buying the half-point on what is currently +2.5 in order to secure the Steelers losing by no less than a field goal.

Don't sleep on the Steelers this season. Kenny Pickett showed flashes in his rookie year and could be primed for a second-year jump. He's got an intriguing trio of receivers and a solid offensive line, but it's the defense that makes Pittsburgh an enticing back. This is one of the best units in football, especially with TJ Watt healthy. They revamped the secondary to shore up their biggest vulnerability from 2022.

Brock Purdy is back, but after getting offseason elbow surgery, we're not too sure he's going to look sharp here on the road. 

Since 2007 when Mike Tomlin was hired, no team has a better ATS rate than Pittsburgh as a home underdog at 59.1%.

For more Week 1 betting trends, we highlighted how each team fared against the trends in 2022 last week:

• Last season's ATS records
• 2022's over/under trends and Week 1 games to monitor

Shootout: Dolphins vs. Chargers over 50.5 points (-115 FanDuel)

This just seems like it all has the makings of a shootout. Both Miami and Los Angeles ranked inside the top-12 of points per game last year, and that was with injuries limiting both offenses.

They head into 2023 relatively healthy, making for a marquee Sunday afternoon matchup. The Chargers were one of the fastest-paced teams last season, and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was at the helm of another fast offense last year in Dallas, so this pace should remain.

Here's to a fun game between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert powering plenty of touchdowns. Look to Raheem Mostert to find the end zone, Los Angeles has allowed the most second-most touchdowns to running backs over the past two years.

Read the game-script: Brian Robinson over 58.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)

Washington's Brian Robinson should cruise against a hapless Arizona defense in a very positive game-script. The Commanders are touchdown favorites, and we'd be fine backing them to cover the spread. Rather than ride that wave, let's bet on their top running back to surpass this soft total on Sunday.

Robinson averaged 82.6 yards per game over his final seven games last season, right when his volume saw a steep uptick. In case we haven't mentioned it enough this summer, the Cardinals are going to be very, very bad.

For more player props, we highlighted Robinson in a quartet of yardage props that look strong for Sunday.

Bruiser back: AJ Dillon touchdown (+205 DraftKings)

Chicago allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per attempt last season and the second-most touchdowns to running backs, which makes the two Packers running backs popular choices for a solid outing this weekend.

In two meetings with the Bears last season, Dillon averaged 77 yards per game, scoring once. Dillon serves as more of the bruiser in this backfield, and should see the bulk of the red zone work. In Jordan Love's first Week 1 start, we expect plenty of rushes, and the Packers should be able to move the football against a so-so Chicago defense.

Oh how we love Chris Olave over 66.5 receiving yards (-110 MGM)

This writer has written the name Chris Olave upwards of a dozen times this week in preparation for Week 1.

He wrote a love-letter to this line on Friday: NFL Week 1 player props: Chris Olave is about to have a day.

He included him to get 100+ yards in a four-leg lottery ticket to win $6K.

We're going to have to include him here as well. Rather than copy and paste, just hop into the first piece above. This Titans secondary is an issue, and Olave is our darling for Week 1.