Super Bowl 58: How Chiefs-Niners unfolded from a betting perspective

Which Team Covered the Spread?

Super Bowl favorites were 36-21 straight up and 27-28-2 against the spread entering today. Underdogs are 9-7 SU in the last 16 Super Bowls, including 11-5 ATS. This was the 23rd Super Bowl that closed with a spread of four or fewer points. The outright winner covered in all 22 games of those games with 11 underdogs winning and 11 favorites winning.

The Super Bowl 58 spread closed between 1.5 and 2.5 points depending on the book with the 49ers as the slight favorite. The Chiefs won and covered after the game-winning touchdown in overtime. The 49ers did cover the first half spread, which closed as high as Niners -1.5 at various sportsbooks.

Did the Super Bowl Go Over or Under the Total?

The over was 27-28-1 in the Super Bowl entering tonight's game. (There was no total in Super Bowl I.)

The under had cashed in four straight Super Bowls before the 38-35 scoring fest in Super Bowl 57. The under is 11-9 in the last 20 Super Bowls. The over has received public support in 16 of those 20 games, in which the over is 7-9.

Super Bowl 58 was an absolute slugfest from the opening kick. The total closed between 46.5 and 47.5 depending on the book. Both defenses made their presence felt in Sunday's game, but because of the overtime period we got a few extra points. The game ended with a final score of 25-22 and a total of 47, so if you bet over 46.5 your bet cashed and if you bet under 47.5 your bet cashed.

No Gatorade Dump as Chiefs Win Super Bowl 58

Andrew Lynch

The Kansas City Chiefs are Super Bowl champions once again! And just as importantly for bettors, the Chiefs covered the spread as 2-point underdogs with their outright win. The Chiefs were also +100 on the moneyline to win as the consensus odds. (approx. 10:53 p.m. ET)

The total over/under? Well, that depends on what number you got, as 47 points exactly were scored. The total was 47.5 for much of the week before being bet down to 47 or 46.5, depending on the book, just before kickoff. This year, there was no Gatorade to capture, as “No Gatorade” cashed at +2000. It was the least bet option on the Super Bowl Gatorade prop.

49ers Narrow Favorites After First OT Possession

Andrew Lynch

It all comes down to this.

The 49ers have gone up 22-19 in overtime after a field goal on their first possession, moving to -2.5 on the point spread and -190 on the moneyline. The total is now 41.5.

And We're Headed to Overtime!

Andrew Lynch

We knew this would be a close game, based on the closing point spread of 49ers -2, and after 60 minutes, we're going to need more time to determine a champion.

Heading into the extra frame, the 49ers are -2.5 on the point spread and -120 on the moneyline, with the live total set at over/under 43.5 points scored. It's only the second overtime game in Super Bowl history.

Gatorade Odds

Andrew Lynch

Back and Forth We Go

Andrew Lynch

There’s no telling what a touchdown might have done to the live Super Bowl odds, as the 49ers held the Chiefs to 3 points, tying the game at 16-16.

Although FanDuel temporarily took live spread bets off the board, the 49ers remained -2.5 at bet365, DraftKings and BetMGM.

49ers Back in Front

Andrew Lynch

The 49ers are back in front after their second TD of the game, but a missed extra point could loom large. Before the kick, San Francisco looked to be -3.5 on the point spread. After the missed kick, lines readjusted down to 49ers -2.5. (approx. 9:43 p.m. ET)

The score came after a gutsy call from Kyle Shanahan to go for it on fourth down, eschewing an opportunity to tie the game with a field goal.

Chiefs Take Lead, Become Favorites

Andrew Lynch

Oh, how the tables have turned! A recovered fumble on a punt by the Chiefs put Kansas City in easy scoring position, and this time, Patrick Mahomes & Co. capitalized with a touchdown. (approx. 9:24 p.m. ET)

With the score, the Chiefs moved to -2.5 on the point spread and -140 on the moneyline, with the total over/under 36.5 points scored.

Chiefs Close Spread to Within a FG

Andrew Lynch

Harrison Butker's Super Bowl record field goal brought the Chiefs to within 10-6 with just a few minutes remaining in the third quarter -- and closed the live point spread to 49ers -2.5, heavily juiced toward San Francisco. The live total moved to 31.5 after the kick. (approx. 9:15 p.m. ET)

49ers Now Favored By Over a Touchdown

Andrew Lynch

Two stalled second-half possessions by the Chiefs have the 49ers favored by 7.5 points at FanDuel four minutes into the third quarter, with the Niners -620 on the moneyline. The Chiefs are currently +400 to pull off the comeback win. The live total is 32.5 points, down two touchdowns from the pregame number of 47. (approx. 8:59 p.m. ET)

Usher Halftime Betting Results

Andrew Lynch

Super Bowl 58’s halftime show started with a bit of controversy on the betting front. Usher’s performance began with a few seconds of “My Way,” which was the -110 favorite to be the first song of the night. However, the first song that Usher performed of any real length was “Caught Up,” which wasn’t even on the board at FanDuel Ontario as one of the bets for first song. (approx. 8:40 p.m. ET)

While Usher wasn’t wearing sunglasses for his first song, he did don them during the performance eventually, cashing the “Yes” on that bet at -270. “Yeah!” was in fact the last song, which was the odds-on favorite for that choice at -195. Both Lil Jon (-1000) and Ludacris (-400) made guest appearances during the show.

Super Bowl 58 Live Odds at Halftime

Andrew Lynch

The Chiefs were knocking at the door of the 49ers' end zone as the second quarter came to a close, but another stalwart stand by the Niners' defense kept Kansas City to a field goal. (approx. 8:10 p.m. ET)

At halftime, the 49ers are -4.5 to -5.5 on the point spread, depending on the book, and anywhere from -250 to -340 on the moneyline.

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

CMC Scores at +400, Spread Goes Over 7

Andrew Lynch

A trick play from the 49ers got us our first touchdown of the game, as Christian McCaffrey scored at +400 to be the first touchdown scorer of the game.

After the CMC score, the 49ers are -7.5 on the point spread and -500 on the moneyline at FanDuel, with the total back up to 37.5. [raw]

Live Bet Made After Chiefs Fumble

Andrew Lynch

With the live total still 36.5 at FanDuel, our live betting expert is pulling the trigger following the above turnover: "A second fumble deep into opposing territory and a total more than ten points down from open is enough for us to jump on the over. It would be hard for this game to have a bigger difference between expected and actual points than it currently does, and regression should kick in at some point for either offense. We'll take the over now, at 36.5 (-108) on FanDuel." (approx. 7:36 p.m. ET)

Niners Strike First, Total Stays Low

Andrew Lynch

Jake Moody's historic field goal broke the seal on Super Bowl 58, moving the 49ers to -3.5 on the spread. The total, however, remained 37.5 across the board. According to our live betting expert, that means we could be setting up beautifully for a live bet on the over: "This game continues to play well for a second half over, with just three points shortly until the second quarter. We're going to get greedy and hope the number drops further, but we're on the right path."

Scoreless Early Game Has Total Cratering

Andrew Lynch

With neither team able to get much going offensively through the first 11 minutes, the total has come down nearly 10 points.

The closing over/under was 47 across the market, with some books as low as 46.5. As of now, the total is down to 37.5.

Chiefs Turnover's Impact on Live Betting

Andrew Lynch

The early turnover from the 49ers doesn't mean a ton to how were approaching this one since we're looking to see if either team pulls away. However, the fact that it was in KC territory probably helps the eventual over case, since it took a fair amount of expected points off the board and lowered the total.

Super Bowl Closing Lines

Andrew Lynch

The 49ers closed as 2-point favorites on the consensus line against the Chiefs, but there was quite a bit of variance in the market. San Francisco was as high as -2.5 at FanDuel and as low as -1.5 at books such as DraftKings.

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

National Anthem Goes Over

Andrew Lynch

... but not without a bit of controversy. Reba McEntire looked like she would go under 90.5 seconds on her National Anthem rendition, but an extended final note sent her all the way to a 95-second performance.

Most-Bet Props Are on Overs

Andrew Lynch

Betting on the over and rooting for fireworks is just a little more fun to most fans. It's no surprise, then, that the most popular prop bets at sportsbooks like DraftKings are on overs. (approx. 6:10 p.m. ET)

Some of the biggest money on the spread and on the moneyline is on the 49ers.

How to Bet Super Bowl 58

Andrew Lynch

For this example, we'll use BetMGM, but the process is very similar at all of the legal mobile sportsbooks in the United States. For a full list of which sportsbooks are available in which states, and which states allow legal betting, click here. With BetMGM's Super Bowl offer, you bet $5 and receive $158 in bonus bets no matter the outcome. Yes, once you deposit and place a $5 wager, you will receive your $158 in bonus bets. But you need to bet through that $158 afterward. And only after that can you withdraw whatever is in your account. The promotional code is ACTION and needs to be entered at sign up. (approx. 5:55 p.m. ET)

Signing up requires your address, the last four digits of your social security number and other identifying information. This is done because of state and federal regulations. In addition, they're in place so one person can't claim multiple new user promotions for the same sportsbook. When your account is verified, sign into your online bank — or use debit card or other deposit methods — to get your initial wager in the account. It's all encrypted and as safe as shopping online at a major retailer.

For more, including how to sign up for offers at multiple books and the best way to use that to your advantage, click here.

Super Bowl 58 Predictions

Andrew Lynch

Our staff has put together hundreds of Super Bowl 58 predictions and picks for their best bets on Chiefs vs 49ers, but the most common prediction is on the Chiefs to cover the spread. The Chiefs are +2 on the spread at most sportsbooks, although that line has come down to Kansas City +1.5 at some places, so be sure to find the best line. (approx. 5:40 p.m. ET)

While Travis Kelce player props are also very popular, with Kelce the most popular bet to win Super Bowl MVP, our best bet for a player prop is on Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions -- in other words, for Mahomes not to throw a pick.

How to Live Bet the Super Bowl

Andrew Lynch

Our live betting expert, Billy Ward, breaks down how he'll be approaching live betting Super Bowl 58: "The problem with this game from a live betting standpoint -- especially in terms of sides and totals -- is how similar both teams are in most of the meaningful categories. The biggest edges occur when there's obvious differences in the approach from both teams. For example, last week when the 49ers took on the Lions. Detroit had an edge running the ball and the 49ers had an edge through the air, making a Lions lead conducive to increased scoring. (approx. 5:25 p.m. ET)

"That's not the case here, as both conference champions have top-five passing defenses by DVOA and roughly league-average rushing defense. Offensively they're both better (to varying degrees) when throwing than running, but both offense are very efficient in both areas. The similarities extend to the pace splits. Given their offensive efficiency, neither team speeds up much when trailing. They know they can score in just a few plays when needed. The efficiency makes under bets (with either team up big) scary, while the snail's pace makes it hard to like the over.

"However, the fastest pace split is when this game stays close. While they both play slightly slower than average in tight games, it's not enough to counteract the strength of the offenses. A close game also allows both teams to continue to mix in the run, where they both have an on-paper advantage offensively. Still, this isn't a huge edge by any stretch. We'd need some considerable downward movement to the pregame total of 47.5 before even thinking about this one, especially considering the Chiefs league-best second half defense this season. The likelier scenario is that we use this information to inform bets on things like player props, rather than try to force a total bet."

How to Stream Super Bowl 58, Actual Start Time

Andrew Lynch

Super Bowl 58 is live on CBS on Sunday, with an official start time of 6:30 p.m. ET. However, last year's Super Bowl did not actually kick off until 6:44 p.m. ET, so it seems likely that will be closer to the actual start time once again this year. In addition to airing live on CBS, Super Bowl 58 is streaming legally in the United States on YouTube TV, Paramount+, CBS Sports' digital platforms, and the NFL app. You will need a subscription or other login credentials for each of these streaming platforms in order to watch the Super Bowl. (approx. 5:10 p.m. ET)

Travis Kelce Leads Player Prop Market

Andrew Lynch

Beyond being the most popular bet to win Super Bowl 58 MVP, Travis Kelce is also atop the list of the most bets on which player will score the first touchdown on Sunday.

Kelce is not the most-bet Anytime TD scorer, though. He's second, behind Christian McCaffrey at -210 -- and at least one bettor is very confidence that CMC will find the end zone.

Super Bowl 58 Odds: Live, Updated Lines

Andrew Lynch

The point spread is on the move once again in Chiefs vs. 49ers today, with FanDuel quickly moving from 49ers -1.5 back to 49ers -2.5. The total at FanDuel remains at 46.5. (approx. 4:40 p.m. ET).

Sunday, Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Super Bowl point spread at FanDuel had come down from -2.5 to -1.5 on Saturday; prior to that, FanDuel was the only book that had the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites, with the rest of the market at 49ers -2 or -1.5. But now, in just a matter of moments, the spread is right back to 49ers -2.5 at FanDuel.

Patrick and Taylor: Both in the Building

Andrew Lynch

We are just two hours away from the official listed kickoff time for Super Bowl 58, and Patrick Mahomes has made his way onto the turf to warm up.

And in case you were wondering, Taylor Swift is officially in the building.

Heads We Win, Tails We Win

Andrew Lynch

Betting on the coin flip has become one of the most popular novelty props every year at the Super Bowl, and one of our betting experts has plenty of thoughts on how to bet on this year's coin flip. No matter if you're a "tails never fails" kind of person or not, though, take a look at this year's official coin for the Super Bowl.

If you'll excuse me, I'll be over here betting heads. On that note, DraftKings is offering +100 on either side of the coin toss, meaning you're actually getting coin-flip odds on your coin-flip bet.

Bettor Makes Massive Wager on Chiefs

Andrew Lynch

Given how many of our experts are on the Chiefs to cover the spread, we hope that this is a massive amount of sharp money. Either way, though, let's all sit and marvel at the beauty of this $1,000,000 bet on Kansas City +2, via Circa in Las Vegas.

Super Bowl 58 Odds for 49ers vs Chiefs at FanDuel

Andrew Lynch

With so many bettors, both experienced and novice, making their Super Bowl bets at FanDuel, we wanted to note how odds have moved at FanDuel specifically.

Sunday, Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

As of Friday, FanDuel was the lone sportsbook that still had the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites. Now, FanDuel is down to San Francisco -1.5, in line with the rest of the market, while the total has dropped from 47.5 to 47 and then to 46.5 over the past few hours.

Super Bowl Odds: Consensus Line Now 49ers -1.5

Andrew Lynch

Money and bets continue to flow in on the Chiefs, with most books now moving to 49ers -1.5 on the point spread. According to our director of research, this is the first time that's been the case since Tuesday of the bye week.

Meanwhile, the total is down to 46.5 at FanDuel.

Super Bowl Odds: Best Lines for Chiefs, 49ers

Andrew Lynch

As we get closer and closer to kickoff, we are seeing line movement across the board on Super Bowl odds. As of just after 3:15 p.m. ET, the best point spread if you are betting on the Chiefs is Kansas City +2, which is available at bet365, BetMGM, BetRivers and Fanatics. The best point spread for 49ers bettors is San Francisco -1.5, which is available at FanDuel, DraftKings and Caesars.

How to Live Bet the Super Bowl

Andrew Lynch

Our live betting expert, Billy Ward, breaks down how he'll be approaching live betting Super Bowl 58: "The problem with this game from a live betting standpoint -- especially in terms of sides and totals -- is how similar both teams are in most of the meaningful categories. The biggest edges occur when there's obvious differences in the approach from both teams. For example, last week when the 49ers took on the Lions. Detroit had an edge running the ball and the 49ers had an edge through the air, making a Lions lead conducive to increased scoring.

"That's not the case here, as both conference champions have top-five passing defenses by DVOA and roughly league-average rushing defense. Offensively they're both better (to varying degrees) when throwing than running, but both offense are very efficient in both areas. The similarities extend to the pace splits. Given their offensive efficiency, neither team speeds up much when trailing. They know they can score in just a few plays when needed. The efficiency makes under bets (with either team up big) scary, while the snail's pace makes it hard to like the over.

"However, the fastest pace split is when this game stays close. While they both play slightly slower than average in tight games, it's not enough to counteract the strength of the offenses. A close game also allows both teams to continue to mix in the run, where they both have an on-paper advantage offensively. Still, this isn't a huge edge by any stretch. We'd need some considerable downward movement to the pregame total of 47.5 before even thinking about this one, especially considering the Chiefs league-best second half defense this season. The likelier scenario is that we use this information to inform bets on things like player props, rather than try to force a total bet." 

Super Bowl Odds, Point Spread Move at More Sportsbooks

Andrew Lynch

Super Bowl odds have remained fairly stable for the past 10 days, but on Sunday, both the point spread and the total in Chiefs vs 49ers are on the move. Caesars and DraftKings moved from 49ers -2 to 49ers -1.5 on Sunday, joining FanDuel, which moved to 49ers -1.5 on Saturday after having 49ers -2.5 all week.

The total, meanwhile, has come down from 47.5 to 47 at multiple books. Noteworthy there is the fact that more tickets are on the over than the under, indicating it's sharp money bringing down the total for Chiefs vs 49ers.

Super Bowl LVIII
Sunday, Feb 11, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Best Way to Bet Super Bowl 58 Props

Andrew Lynch

The only thing better than tailing our betting experts -- which you can do in the section below breaking down our Super Bowl best bets for Chiefs vs 49ers -- is making an informed decision on your own. So if you're looking to bet Super Bowl player props right up until kickoff, head over to Sean Koerner's player props calculator to get all the data you need.

If you don't know the Oddsmaker, he's our director of predictive analytics and an award-winning bettor and fantasy guru. So you're welcome for the introduction -- and what meeting Koerner will mean for your bets.

Super Bowl 58 Odds for 49ers vs Chiefs

Andrew Lynch

As of just four hours before kickoff of Chiefs vs. 49ers on Sunday, the consensus Super Bowl 58 odds are: Point spread: 49ers -2 | Total: Over/under 47.5 Moneylines: 49ers -120, Chiefs +100.

Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The 49ers opened as 3-point favorites immediately after the conference championship games two weeks ago, but that number was quickly bet to 49ers -1.5 before settling at 49ers -2 across the board. The total has remained steady at 47.5 for the past week, with the moneylines hovering right around a coin flip.

How to Stream Super Bowl 58, Actual Start Time

Andrew Lynch

Super Bowl 58 is live on CBS on Sunday, with an official start time of 6:30 p.m. ET. However, last year's Super Bowl did not actually kick off until 6:44 p.m. ET, so it seems likely that will be closer to the actual start time once again this year. In addition to airing live on CBS, Super Bowl 58 is streaming legally in the United States on YouTube TV, Paramount+, CBS Sports' digital platforms, and the NFL app. You will need a subscription or other login credentials for each of these streaming platforms in order to watch the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 58 Predictions

Andrew Lynch

Our staff has put together hundreds of Super Bowl 58 predictions and picks for their best bets on Chiefs vs 49ers, but the most common prediction is on the Chiefs to cover the spread. The Chiefs are +2 on the spread at most sportsbooks, although that line has come down to Kansas City +1.5 at some places, so be sure to find the best line.

While Travis Kelce player props are also very popular, with Kelce the most popular bet to win Super Bowl MVP, our best bet for a player prop is on Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions -- in other words, for Mahomes not to throw a pick.

Public is on the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58

Andrew Lynch

As of 2 p.m. ET, approximately 67% of all spread bets are on the Chiefs to cover, with 74% of the money also on Kansas City. Moneyline bets tell a similar story, with 61% of tickets and 55% of the money on the Chiefs. Traders at the big sportsbooks aren't shy about how much they'll be rooting for the 49ers.

FanDuel Moves to Closest Point Spread for Super Bowl 58

Andrew Lynch

FanDuel had been the only sportsbook with the Chiefs at +2.5 on the spread for most of the week, but after a line move of a full point over the weekend, FanDuel is now at 49ers -1.5/Chiefs +1.5.

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.