Super Bowl futures bets: Post-free agency edition

It's been a crazy offseason in the NFL, with the quarterback dominoes having ripple effects throughout the league.

It hasn't only been passers switching teams. We had star wideouts Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill changing teams and defensive standouts like Von Miller, Chandler Jones, J.C. Jackson and more all joining new teams.

You know the one commonality between all of these players? It's been a concentrated movement into the AFC.

Now that the dust is starting to settle, it feels like a tremendous time to look into the Super Bowl futures market.

You'll also see a commonality between the teams I highlight below: neither of them are in the AFC.

That conference is absolutely loaded and I see absolutely no value in betting that side of the market.

Meanwhile, the NFC is wide open.

Tampa Bay: +750 (DK)

We have to start here with Tampa Bay. Somehow Tom Brady returning from "retirement" doesn't even feel like one of the five most important stories of this offseason, but it has immense value in the futures market.

Tampa Bay should remain very much in the mix here, and in such a weak NFC South, I don't see much competition coming for Brady and the Buccaneers.

The team doesn't have many pressing roster needs, though their interior offensive and defensive lines are sure to be addressed in the draft.

With Chris Godwin resigned, there's less of a dire need with the pass-catchers, but you could make the case they are in need of a receiver. I still see enough weapons in this offense to maintain their offensive production from last season.

Again, this and our next team highlighted are worth a bet even as one of the favorites, because who in their division will challenge them?

Atlanta just traded Matt Ryan and is heading into the season with Marcus Mariota and question-marks throughout the roster. New Orleans has a new head coach, is in salary cap hell, and will be trotting out Jameis Winston this season. Then there's the Panthers, who have no quarterback and a lame-duck head coach.

The Bucs should cruise to the playoffs.

Green Bay: +1100 (FD)

The Packers and Aaron Rodgers have a gift of putting together strong regular seasons and fading in the playoffs, but I still see value here at +1100.

Rodgers is back, and while they traded away his top-weapon, they now have two first round picks to build up the positional group. I would be truly flabbergasted if Green Bay does not draft a receiver at 22 or 28, and I would not be overly surprised if they drafted two. The Packers lost their two top receivers from last season and have a glaring need there.

Rodgers is good enough to acclimate rookies to the professional level in a hurry. If I was a betting man (I am), then I would love to place a wager on Odell Beckham Jr. joining Green Bay. He's the top free agent WR, and would immediately slot in as a high-volume target in this offense once healthy from the torn ACL he suffered in the Super Bowl.

Elsewhere, the defense remains a strength and with four picks in the first two rounds, the Packers should be able to bring in difference-makers.

Like Tampa Bay, who is going to challenge Green Bay in the NFC North?

Kirk Cousins does not scare me in the slightest. The Chicago Bears may have the worst offense in all of football this season, and the Lions are a work in progress to put it gently.

As chalky as it sounds, the Packers seem destined for 12+ wins again, even without Adams, and I think this +1100 value is as good as it gets.

Closing Thoughts

Those are my two preferred spots to place some bets. I'll stay away from Los Angeles given the tougher division, and as an Eagles fan I'm likely to place a side bet on them winning the NFC.

I have to reiterate, this is where the value is at. The AFC is absolutely stacked and it's going to be a battle just to get to the Super Bowl.

This betting approach is all about getting to the big game. I think the Super Bowl winner will come from the AFC, but it's so much harder to project.

In this instance, should we see the Bucs or Packers reach the Super Bowl, we would be in a position to hedge our future bet and guarantee winnings.

It's all about the path.

We will revisit these odds after the NFL Draft, with rosters likely nearing their final form for the 2022 season.