Super Bowl LVIII: Mining for Niners bets 

As promised, we turn today to the San Francisco 49ers' end to find us the spots that seem best for some bets. The Niners are favored to win, and while we may not think that happens, that doesn't mean a few of their key contributors aren't poised for big days.

Stacking some San Fran favorites for Sunday's football

Christian McCaffrey over 90.5 rushing yards (-120 DraftKings)

Sure, this isn't very flashy, but backing Christian McCaffrey seems like the right path to take when studying how San Francisco matches up with Kansas City.

The Chiefs' biggest defensive liability is most definitely on the ground: KC has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per attempt this year, and DVOA grades their run defense 27th in the NFL. 

McCaffrey is going to see serious work; this is no time for limiting touches. The 49ers' star running back has averaged 91.8 rushing yards per game this year and 94 yards/game in his two playoff games. His rush attempts prop has floated up to the 19.5 line, and if for a moment we project just 18+ carries, his yards look more inviting.

In the 12 games since joining San Francisco when McCaffrey sees 18+ rushes, he's averaging 102.5 rushing yards per game, going for 90+ nine times. This is our favorite choice to produce from this offense.

Deebo Samuel TD (+140 FanDuel)

As far as value goes, Deebo Samuel is our favorite to find the end zone for this 49ers team. He caught eight balls for 89 yards last week and had three carries, and the multitude of ways that San Francisco engineers touches for him should play to our benefit here.

Kansas City has allowed a WR to score in all three playoff games thus far, and Samuel is our preference to build on that trend. He has 12 touchdowns on the season but has been quiet of late. The way in which Zay Flowers had a productive day against Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game has us thinking Samuel should be well-positioned to break off plays in a similar fashion.

In the news ...

Royals sign Bobby Witt Jr. to franchise-record deal — The Kansas City Royals have come to terms on a new deal for their star shortstop, signing Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $288.7M contract. The deal is the richest Kansas City has ever handed out, a welcome development to see a small-market team lock down its home-grown talent. Witt hit .276 last season with 30 HRs and 96 RBI, and he stole 49 bases. The Royals owned the second-worst record in the AL last season and will likely need to add a few more pieces before they're competitive again. Kansas City is currently +425 to make the playoffs, and Witt Jr. is +2200 to win AL MVP.
 
WM Phoenix Open tees off this week — The PGA Tour heads to Arizona this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, a fan-favorite tournament with a raucous crowd atmosphere. Scottie Scheffler, the two-time reigning champion and current No. 1 player in the world is the betting favorite at 5-1, but there are other value bets to make here. Justin Thomas at 11-1 is worth a look. Thomas finished T-6th over the weekend and it seemed he may be poised for a late comeback before the tournament ended 18 holes early due to weather. Thomas has been playing incredibly well of late and has finished inside the top 10 at TPC Scottsdale in four of the past six years.
 
Eagles set to play in Brazil on Friday of Week 1 next season — For the first time, the NFL will play a game in Brazil in 2024, and we now know one of the participants. The Philadelphia Eagles will "host" another team TBD in Sao Paulo, Brazil for Week 1. Not only are they playing in Brazil, but the NFL will also have a game on the opening week on a Friday night for the first time. There will still be games in England and Germany again next season as the NFL's international expansion continues.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.