Super Bowl LX Picks: Expert Picks Against the Spread

Welcome to Super Bowl week. The 2025 NFL season is down to one final game, with the Seattle Seahawks taking on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

The storylines are all there… Sam Darnold’s redemption… Seattle’s “Dark Side” defense (don’t call them the “Legion of Boom”)… the emergence of Drake Maye… Mike Vrabel rekindling the dynasty...

And while this is the fourth Super Bowl appearance for the Seahawks, it’s the NFL-record 12th time the Patriots are here. A win for New England would be the franchise’s seventh Super Bowl, breaking a tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers for most Super Bowl titles.

This will be the Patriots’ 10th Super Bowl appearance since the dynasty began in 2001. And while they’re 6-3 in those first nine games, they’re 4-5 against the spread. Then again, the Patriots have only been an underdog in two of those Super Bowls — and they won both of those games outright.

The last time New England was a Super Bowl underdog was 11 years ago… against the Seahawks. And the Patriots are now underdogs to Seattle again.

Here are the Athlon Sports staff picks, along with some notes to help make your pick:

Seahawks -4.5 vs. Patriots

Including the playoffs, Seattle comes into this game on a nine-game winning streak, averaging 29 points per game in that stretch. In five of those nine wins, the defense allowed 10 points or less. The Patriots come into the Super Bowl on a six-game winning streak, and they’ve won 16 of their last 17 games. In their three playoff games, the Patriots defense has been stifling, allowing 71.3 rushing yards, 168 passing yards and 8.7 points per game.

Without question, the most important matchup in this game will be Patriots shutdown cornerback Christian Gonzalez against Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards. That said, don’t be surprised if Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp makes a few clutch grabs.

Luke Easterling’s Pick:
Seahawks 31, Patriots 20

New England's defense has been a different beast since the return of Milton Williams in the trenches, but the Seahawks are simply the more complete team in this matchup. I could see this being close for three quarters, but Seattle's defense closes the door late with a big takeaway, and the offense controls the clock on a long touchdown drive to put it out of reach in the final minutes.

Craig Ellenport’s Pick:
Seahawks 27, Patriots 17

The biggest “x-factor” in this game will be whether or not Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has been distracted by his reported plans to be the next Las Vegas Raiders head coach. Because as long as he comes up with a solid plan for Darnold against a very good New England defense, the Seahawks should prevail. The Patriots were 1-2 this season against teams with a winning record, and their three playoff wins all came against teams with major injury issues. They haven’t faced a team nearly as good as Seattle this season, whereas the Seahawks have succeeded against much tougher competition. 

Doug Farrar’s Pick:
Seahawks 27, Patriots 23

This game will be a lot closer than some think, because the Patriots' defense has been a radically different and better beast in the postseason than what we saw in the regular season. The Seahawks should also be concerned about Drake Maye's ability to blow up disguised coveages, which Seattle uses at a very high rate. In the end, though, it's Sam Darnold's increased efficiency of late against pressure — all four of his postseason touchdowns came against pressure — that will decide things in a very tight contest. 

Andrew Perloff’s Pick:
Seahawks 27, Patriots 20

Seattle’s ability to effectively rush Drake Maye with four will be the deciding factor in the game. New England has had enough problems sustaining offensive drives and it won’t get any easier. The Seahawks will be able to keep conservative on offense to protect Sam Darnold. Eventually, Seattle will start to wear on the Pats’ defense and Kenneth Walker III will have a big second-half run.

Kyle Wood ’s Pick:
Seahawks 27, Patriots 20

This is a game about redemption. Seattle could have gone back-to-back more than a decade ago if not for a much-maligned goal-line play call against New England. And for quarterback Sam Darnold, the infamous "Seeing Ghosts" game against the Patriots became emblematic of a troublesome start for a career seemingly bound to bust. Super Bowl LX is a chance to bring everything full circle. Armed with an up-and-coming quarterback, New England has the feel of a team that's ahead of schedule. The Pats could very well be back on this stage. But these Seahawks are built for this moment, and they'll perform accordingly.