Pictured: Patrick Mahomes. Getty Images

Super Bowl prediction against the spread: Expert takes side

Originally posted on Action Network | By Simon Hunter | Last updated 2/10/24

Super Bowl Prediction Against the Spread: Expert Takes Side

I know I know, everyone is backing Mahomes as a 'dog. Every day since the NFC Championship Game, I’ve tried to find a reason to get on the 49ers side. I can’t find it.

We all know in a one-game, winner-takes-all matchup, random things will happen and that's why we haven’t had a line over +5 in 15 years. Sportsbooks have gotten smarter in treating it as such. Sure, most people might think the 49ers are the better team, and most models would agree. That’s life when you draft well and your starting QB accounts for less than 0.5% of your team salary cap.

Niners vs. Chiefs

Sunday, Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Chiefs +2.5 (-115, (FanDuel)

But as I've prepared for this game, many people like me have taken a step back and really looked at what this Chiefs team has accomplished over the last month. The offense clearly isn’t what we’re used to seeing from Mahomes and Andy Reid. The difference: the defense. That unit has faced Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore in the playoffs, and it allowed an average of four points per game in the second half.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been in his bag all season with this young unit. It’s only gotten better late in the season as they’ve gotten more reps. The Chiefs feel like they know exactly who they are and what is needed to do to win these games.

I have nowhere near the same trust in the 49ers. We haven’t seen them play a complete game since December. Backing Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy as favorites makes me uncomfortable, especially after struggling to start playoff home games against the Packers and Lions.

At the end of the day, it’s been very profitable taking Mahomes at anything less than a -2.5 favorite (17-3 against the spread for his career), and you may have heard that he's 10-1 as an underdog. It’s hard to pass on this number.

I can see this being a close game and once it gets to the fourth quarter, the 49ers will make mistakes. Unless Mahomes is playing hurt, we back him as an underdog with Reid as his coach and Spagnuolo manning the defense.

I'd take the alternate spread of Chiefs -2.5 at +130 if you like to party.

Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (FanDuel)

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