Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds, Preview: NFL Picks Monday Night Football

• Buccaneers vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -9
• Buccaneers vs. Chiefs over/under: 45.5 points
• Buccaneers vs. Chiefs moneyline: Chiefs -450, Buccaneers +350
• Buccaneers vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs 1H -4.5

My Chiefs vs. Buccaneers best bet leans toward Kansas City covering the first-half spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.

Spread

The Chiefs defense is a step up in class from what the Bucs have faced this season, but a big part of the handicap is the Chiefs’ ability to play man coverage, which is why I prefer the first-half spread rather than full game to prevent the backdoor from coming into play.

Just last week, we saw the Raiders get in the backdoor and make a 27-13 game end on 27-20, covering +9. However, inclement weather could make it difficult for the Chiefs to build margin in a condensed timeframe, which is why it’s just a lean.

Moneyline

I’m not betting either side’s moneyline on Monday Night Football

Over/Under

If the rainy forecast for Monday Night Football holds, the under becomes a lot more appealing, but anything less and the Bucs defense is not to be trusted against a Chiefs offense that is trending up after acquiring DeAndre Hopkins.

My pick: Lean Chiefs 1H -4.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Monday Night Football Preview

Note: All data is from Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.

Baker Mayfield has the Buccaneers offense rolling. Over their last five games, the Bucs are averaging 34.2 points and 457.0 total yards per game.

Last week, he threw for 330 yards and three TDs in his first full game without Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (IR, ankle), but he’ll miss his top two receivers a lot more in this matchup.

Unlike the string of defenses Mayfield has carved up over the last month, the Chiefs employ a man-heavy scheme. Against man coverage, Mayfield averages 0.09 Expected Points Added per Dropback compared to 0.23 EPA/DB against zone, according to FTN, but that was with Godwin and Evans healthy for most of the year.

Godwin and Evans have combined for 28 catches, 270 yards and six TDs against man coverage while no other Bucs receiver has more than 70 yards or one TD versus single coverage. Their replacements, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer have combined to catch only 3-of-9 targets against man coverage.

Cade Otton, who has stepped up to be their most productive receiver of late, averages 1.68 yards per route against zone coverage but 0.41 versus man.

You have to go all the way back to Weeks 2-3 against Detroit and Denver for the last time the Buccaneers faced man-heavy defenses. Those two matchups saw the Bucs average just 13.5 points and 219.5 total yards.

Another thing that differentiates the Chiefs from defenses the Bucs faced over the last five games is their ability to get pressure, which they generate at a top-three rate. Mayfield has been the least-pressured quarterback among those with at least 185 dropbacks, and 20 of his 21 TD passes have come with a clean pocket.

The Bucs offense has been forced to become more backfield-centric in the wake of the Godwin and Evans injuries. However, this is a tough matchup for Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and on-again, off-again third amigo Sean Tucker.

The Chiefs have stifled opposing backfields to the tune of 3.5 yards per carry and rank second in DVOA against the run. They also rank in the top 10 in DVOA on passes to running backs.

Despite the Bucs’ torrid offensive stretch, they are only 2-3 over that span because their defense has allowed 30.2 points and 363.4 total yards per game. The Bucs are getting healthier, but this would still be a good spot for Patrick Mahomes and his reloaded offense — with Kareem Hunt at running back and DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver — alongside Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy.

Hunt’s early season, couch-free-agent status and his 3.7 yards per carry since joining the Chiefs are deceiving. He has given the Chiefs a viable running game in the absence of Isiah Pacheco (IR, leg) thanks to his ability to run with consistency while handling heavy volume.

In four games since rejoining the Chiefs, Hunt is averaging 21.0 carries per game, and his 59.5% rushing success rate ranks second in the league among 50 qualified rushers, behind only Jahmyr Gibbs (64.1%), according to Pro Football Reference. If weather plays a factor, the Chiefs should have the edge in the running game on both sides of the ball.

But if the weather lets up, Mahomes could have a breakout game. The Bucs struggle to get pressure without blitzing, and Mahomes has destroyed the blitz throughout his career. Mahomes is also due for some positive turnover luck after throwing a pick in every game.

According to PFF, his turnover-worthy play rate of 2.5% is slightly below his career average of 2.6%, and he hasn’t been charged with even one turnover-worthy play over the last three games despite tossing four interceptions over that span.

Pick: Lean Chiefs 1H -4.5 (to -5.5)

How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers is scheduled for an 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Monday night. The game is broadcast live by ESPN and is streaming on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.

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