Originally posted on Know It All Football  |  Last updated 5/14/13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin finished his rookie season in 2012 as the No. 5 rusher in the NFL. He wasted no time in placing his name next to that of Ray Rice, Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson in conversations about the top running backs in the league. This prompted me to do some research in terms of the historical production of running backs in their second year as a full-time feature back. My findings bode well for Buccaneer fans and fantasy football owners who have or will have Martin on their rosters. Let me first say that there is no science whatsoever behind my numbers. I took a few stats that were known, averaged them out and came up with a prediction. My results are for entertainment and speculation purposes only and should not be used to make any decisions that could end up placing you in financial hardship. What I did was looked at the increase or decrease in production of five other running backs in recent history from their first full year as a featured starter to their second. I used Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew and LaDainian Tomlinson as samples. Peterson saw a 420 yard increase (31%) in total rushing yards from his first year to his second. Arian Foster, on the other hand, saw his rushing total decrease by 392 yards (24%). Rice and Jones-Drew also saw decreases, but not by as much as Foster. Rice went down by 119 yards (8%) while Jones-Drew went back 67 yards (4%). LaDainian Tomlinson had the biggest increase of any feature back in the 21st Century. His rushing production spiked 36% (446 yards). I took all of those numbers and averaged them out. With LeGarrette Blount out of the picture, there is no reason to believe that Martin’s carries should decrease. With that, I then applied the average to Martin’s 2012 numbers. The five sample backs yielded an average of a 6.2% increase in production from the first year to the second. When you apply that increase to Martin’s 2012 stats, you end up with an 87 yard increase for a total of 1541 yards. Like I said, it’s nothing scientific, but it’s interesting to look at. Given recent history and how backs have performed from year to year, I don’t think it’s crazy to expect Martin to break 1500 yards, while I’d be surprised to see him fail to break 1400. Anyway you look at it, barring injury, history says Doug Martin is a safe bet to continue the success of his rookie year into 2013. BY J.P. SCOTT ON MAY 14, 2013 Reads: (0)
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Wife of Spurs coach Gregg Popovich passes away

Patriots' reported interest in Josh Rosen is real

Baker Mayfield to Jets reportedly 'a done deal'

Adam Silver: NBA still has ‘some work to do’ to address tanking

LeBron explains why Cavs were caught off-guard by playoffs

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Shohei Ohtani dealt with blisters in Japan too

Dolphins say Tannehill will start at QB regardless of draft

James Harrison: 'I have no problem with the Steelers family'

WATCH: Victor Oladipo called for most ridiculous foul in Game 2

WATCH: Ender Inciarte robs Scott Kingery of home run

Josh Morrissey suspended one game for cross-check on Eric Staal

The 'Final Dez-tination' quiz

Where did it all go wrong for these NBA playoff wannabes?

Believe it or not? Surprising early-season MLB returns

Three-round NFL mock draft

Dez Bryant may have to settle for a fit over revenge

Lance, LeBron & the NBA's most lopsided rivalry

April entertainment planner: 'Avengers,' 'Westworld,' 'Hilarity for Charity' and 'Handmaids' kick off early summer season

'Alan Anthony is not here': The 2018 BIG3 Combine & Draft

Picking the All-NBA First, Second and Third teams

Top 12 player matchups in the first round of the NBA Playoffs

The 'April showers bring Bryce's powers' quiz

Fifteen years later, we'll never see the 'next Michael Jordan'

NFL News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Yardbarker Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.

Where did it all go wrong for these NBA playoff wannabes?

The 'Final Dez-tination' quiz

Believe it or not? Surprising early-season MLB returns

Three-round NFL mock draft

The 'April showers bring Bryce's powers' quiz

Dez Bryant may have to settle for a fit over revenge

The 'Tis the (post)season' quiz

Fifteen years later, we'll never see the 'next Michael Jordan'

April entertainment planner: 'Avengers,' 'Westworld' kick off early summer season

'Alan Anthony is not here': The 2018 BIG3 Combine & Draft

Newsletters
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker