Texans panic meter is high, but there IS hope for a third straight postseason trip

Three one-possession losses in their first three games of the 2025 NFL season have the Houston Texans staring down a nearly impossible task... becoming just the fifth team since 1990 to overcome an 0-3 start to make the NFL Playoffs at season's end. Just for housekeeping sake, 165 teams have started a season 0-3 since 1990, and with only four climbing out of that hole to reach the postseason, that theoretically gives the Texans a 2.4% chance of becoming the next team to do so.

Sure, this doesn't look promising for a Texans team that entered the season with their sights on competing for a Super Bowl title, but this early in the season, as bleak as things may look, it's not as if Houston is already mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. To quote Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance?" Yes, Texans fans, there's a chance, and while history tells us there's just a 2.4% chance, it's time we go game by game and figure out how likely this actually is.

Breaking down the Houston Texans remaining schedule

Ahead of the start of the season, ESPN's Mike Clay released his game-by-game win probabilities for every team in the NFL. Per those projections, the Texans were expected to get off to a 1-2 start to the season before finishing 9-8 on the season. So, just assuming those odds hold true, that means the Texans should expect to finish the year with an 8-9 record, likely not good enough to win the AFC South Division title or secure a Wild Card berth.

That means, if we're attempting to chart a path for Houston to make a third consecutive postseason appearance -- for the first time in franchise history -- we need to find at least one extra win in Houston's remaining 14 games this season. Time to bust out the magnifying glass and do some sleuthing.

Week 4 - vs. Tennesse Titans

Depending on your sportsbook of choice, Houston is favored by somewhere around a touchdown in this divisional matchup versus the winless Titans. Based on the way the Texans have played so far this year, it's hard to say that any game on their schedule should be a walkover, but if Houston is going to run away with any wins this season, it's probably going to come against Tennessee.

Projected Record: 1-3

Week 5 - at Baltimore Ravens

The last time Houston and Baltimore hooked up, the Texans were limited to just 2 points in a December 25th loss at home to the Ravens. Not even 'It's a Wonderful Life' was as depressing as that Texans Christmas Day performance.

Projected Record: 1-4

Week 7 - at Seattle Seahawks / Week 8 - vs. San Francisco 49ers

Starting with their first game post-bye week, this is when the Houston Texans need to start making some moves up the standings. Back to back games versus NFC West contenders kick things off, and even though the Seahawks and 49ers will both be very game opponents, I'm going to pencil in W's for Houston for each of these games. I'm not sure yet that Seattle can be trusted, and who the heck knows just how many bodies the 49ers will be down by late-October.

Projected Record: 3-4

Week 9 - vs. Denver Broncos

For my money, this may be the biggest non-divisional game on the Houston Texans schedule this year, if only because if either Indianapolis or Jacksonville ends up staying in front of Houston in the AFC South all year long, Houston's postseason hopes will come down to the Wild Card, and Denver -- sitting at 1-2 right now -- will be one of the teams in the mix for one of those three Wild Card berths.

Considering the expectations, Denver has been nearly as disappointing this season as Houston has, and similar to last year with CJ Stroud in his second NFL season, it looks like second-year Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has hit something of a sophomore slump early on this year.

Mike Clay saw this one as a 50/50 matchup, and I don't think he's wrong, but in Houston, I'm going to say the Texans escape with a narrow victory.

Projected Record: 4-4

Week 10 - vs. Jacksonville Jaguars / Week 11 - at Tennessee Titans

All due respect to both Jacksonville, who already have one game on Houston this year, and Tennessee, but these are two games the Texans have to win, and if the point of this exercise is to find the victories necessary to get Houston to the Playoffs, these need to be W's.

Projected Record: 6-4

Week 12 - vs. Buffalo Bills

The Texans defense stymied Josh Allen last year, forcing the MVP into not just the worst game of his 2024 season, but also one of the worst games of his entire career. But another year has passed by, and I just don't know if there's an antidote to Buffalo's offense. If you're going to beat the Bills, you might need to score at least 30 points, and right now, it's hard to imagine the Texans offense being up for that challenge.

Projected Record: 6-5

Week 13 - at Indianapolis Colts

I'm gonna need to see more than three solid performances to believe that Daniel "Indiana" Jones is suddenly rejuventated as a starting quarterback who could play well in meaningful football games late in the season, but in all facets of the game, it's been hard to ignore just how solid the Colts have looked this season. And after seeing how effectively Bucky Irving and the Buccaneers were able to run the ball on Houston, the Colts may be able to ride Jonathan Taylor to a victory in the Big Oil Drum.

Projected Record: 6-6

Week 14 - at Kansas City Chiefs

The Texans gave the Chiefs all they could handle at Arrowhead last January in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs, and Kansas City doesn't resemble the powerhouse they once were through three games this year. But Patrick Mahomes is 26-6 as a starter in the month of December, and if the Chiefs are playing with any sense of desperation in this game, it could be trouble for Houston.

Projected Record: 6-7

Week 15 - vs. Arizona Cardinals / Week 16 - vs. Las Vegas Raiders

It's difficult to forecast what the entire NFL postseason picture will look like once we're well into the month of December, but it's possible that both Arizona and Las Vegas will be playing with the same amount of urgency as Houston is at this point in the season. Still, the preseason odds favored the Texans in these two games, and so long as Houston remains in the postseason hunt, I think they'll have enough to score two much needed back-to-back wins on their home field.

Projected Record: 8-7

Week 17 - at Los Angeles Chargers

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the Los Angeles Chargers were sitting atop not only the AFC West, but right near the top of the entire AFC when this late-December game rolls around, and that could mean one of two things for the Houston Texans... either the Fighting Harbaugh's are playing for a whole lot -- like home field advantage or a division title -- in Week 17, or they could be locked into a postseason berth or a particular seed, and they won't be playing for much at all.

The AFC West is too competitive, and both the Bills and Ravens will be coming for the top seed in the AFC, so I think this is one the Chargers will need.

Projected Record: 8-8

Week 18 - vs. Indianapolis Colts

Now in order to determine how important this game might be, we would need to run through the entire Indianapolis Colts schedule, and based on Mike Clay's preseason win probabilities, at this point in the season, Indianapolis would be 10-6, and therefore, the AFC South title would be out of reach for Houston. But once again I ask... can we really trust Daniel Jones to continue playing the way he has this September all throughout the season, and if the answer is no, what does that do to the calculus for the Colts?

Even if we assume that Indy has clinched the AFC South at this point, if Houston is 8-8 heading into the matchup, it's possible that they could still be playing for a Wild Card berth, and if the Colts are locked into what will likely be the 4-seed, is there incentive to throw the kitchen sink or any other household appliances in the direction of the Houston Texans during this matchup?

Projected Record: 9-8