The Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield Gamble

Things are looking good right now for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They had a great draft and free agency to retool an already strong roster. Now they head into mini camp looking like one of the best rosters in the NFC.

However, there is a dark cloud off in the distance. That would be the looming contract extension with quarterback Baker Mayfield. According to Mayfield, the two sides aren’t close in terms of negotiations.

Mayfield also said that he won’t negotiate during the season. This gives the Buccaneers a deadline to get the deal done before the start of the season or wait and see what he does in 2026.

This sets up a bit of a gamble. It would be cheaper to sign Mayfield now if he goes on to have a big year this season. However, if they extend him now and he flops like he did in the second half of last year then that contract could be an anchor for an otherwise great team.

So what’s the right move? Sign now or sign later? Here’s how I would play the Buccaneers Mayfield Gamble.

First, let’s look at what Mayfield has done in Tampa. Through three years, he has averaged 4,080 yards passing with nearly 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions per year. Strong numbers on the surface, but defined by peaks and valleys.

In 2023 Mayfield established himself as a starting quarterback with a good season, but part of his success was the presence of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and a strong defense (7th overall in points allowed). Regardless, he proved that he belongs after bouncing around the league. As a result he got a three year contract extension.

In 2024 there is no denying that Mayfield was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. His 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns led the Bucs to the playoffs before a disappointing first round loss. It seemed that the Bucs had found their franchise quarterback.

This carried over into the first half of 2025 where Mayfield was getting MVP consideration. However, as good as he was in 2024, he was that bad in the second half of 2025. Now we are left wondering; which is the real Baker Mayfield?

The answer is both. He is both at times the guy who nearly washed out of the league and the guy who was getting MVP love. It’s hard to know exactly what to pay a guy like that.

I think most would agree that even with the stink of last season still looming over him, Mayfield has earned a pay raise. At an average of $33 million per year, that puts him right in the middle at 16th in terms of average quarterback salaries. Hard to argue that he hasn’t been better than that based on his per year averages.

The issue is that the quarterback market is a bit funny right now. Multiple time MVP winner Lamar Jackson currently averages $52 million per year while guys like Brock Purdy and Jordan Love (players you could argue who are inferior to Mayfield) make $53 million and $55 million respectively.

So the question is, is that a number that we’d be comfortable paying Mayfield?

For me the answer is yes. If he truly is the player we say in 2023 and 2024, then I’m fine with making him a top 10 paid quarterback in the game. Most of the time, his play is worthy of that.

However, I’d make him play out this year to prove that he is that guy. Even if that means Mayfield having a great year and getting paid a little more then that’s okay with me. After all, the gap between the 10th highest paid quarterback and the 3rd highest paid quarterback isn’t that big.

If Mayfield proves to be the guy, then no one should have issue paying him. If not, then the Bucs can’t afford to be shackled to a quarterback who will never lead them to where they want to go. Personally, I’m willing to bet on Baker Mayfield and pay out that bet accordingly.