The Commanders Must Open the 2025 Season Strong

The Washington Commanders’ Cinderella run in 2024 produced 12 wins and a trip to the NFC Championship. Now, their 2025 schedule will reveal whether the magic was real or if the clock has struck midnight.

The Commanders face the eighth-toughest strength of schedule based on last season’s win percentage. Their schedule includes matchups against the AFC West and NFC North, arguably the two best divisions in football. 

Washington will need to start strong, given how their schedule becomes increasingly difficult as the season progresses. Only one of their first four opponents made the playoffs last season, and two of them won less than five games.

To position themselves for another postseason run, the Commanders will have to capitalize early in the season.

Here’s the outlook for the first four weeks of Washington’s schedule, and a player to watch on each opposing team:

Week 1: vs. New York Giants (Sep. 7)

Washington is favored by 6.5 points to open the season—the third-largest point spread of Week 1—but divisional games in the NFC East are never a cakewalk.

Even when the Commanders swept the Giants and finished nine wins ahead of them last season, they only outscored New York by eight points across the two matchups.

The Giants upgraded at quarterback with Russell Wilson, while standout wide receiver Malik Nabers is coming off a stellar rookie season. The matchup between Nabers and Marshon Lattimore will be a test of how fresh the 29-year-old cornerback is feeling after dealing with a nagging hamstring injury last season.

On the other side of the ball, New York’s secondary was stout, but their run defense was lackluster. Expect Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., and potentially Deebo Samuel to take advantage.

Opponents’ X-Factor: Giants Pass Rush

The Giants added another weapon to hunt quarterbacks by drafting Abdul Carter with the No. 3 pick this offseason. Between Carter, Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York’s edge rushers are shaping up to be one of the league’s scariest units.

Washington retooled its offensive line in the offseason, trading for Laremy Tunsil and selecting Josh Conerly Jr. in the first round. The battle in the trenches will decide this one.

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Giants 17

Week 2: at Green Bay Packers (Sep. 11, Thursday Night Football)

The Commanders face a short week ahead of their second game. It’s always a physical challenge, but at least they’ll get it out of the way before injuries start to mount.

It marks Washington’s first encounter with Jordan Love, who the Packers are pairing with first-round wide receiver Matthew Golden. Golden adds to a deep receiver room that will test the Commanders’ secondary.

Green Bay’s run defense was among the best in the league last season, although they took a hit with the departure of defensive tackle T.J. Slaton. Slaton led all interior defensive linemen in run-stop win rate last season, which could open rushing lanes for Washington.

But the Commanders will likely need to find success in the passing game, especially if the Packers’ potent offense puts points on the board as expected. Terry McLaurin and Co. could have productive days.

Opponents’ X-Factor: RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs was the Packers’ first option on offense in 2024. He tallied 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground, helping Green Bay become a top-five rushing unit.

The Commanders ranked as one of the worst run defenses last year, but added size up front in the offseason. Eddie Goldman, Javon Kinlaw, Deatrich Wise, and the rest of Washington’s defensive line will need to tighten up against one of the league’s premier backs.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 28, Commanders 24

Week 3: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Sep. 21)

Washington gets a 10-day break after a tough matchup at Lambeau Field, and a date with a retooling Raiders team that overhauled key offensive positions.

Las Vegas’ trade for Geno Smith and the selection of Ashton Jeanty add layers to their offense. Smith and record-setting tight end Brock Bowers could develop into one of the league’s best quarterback-tight end tandems. He could also further unlock wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who is coming off his first 1,000-yard season. 

Maxx Crosby is always dangerous for the Raiders’ defense, but Washington’s addition of Tunsil makes them well-equipped to slow him down. Besides Crosby, Las Vegas’ defense is subpar. They should be susceptible to a Washington attack that looks to be one of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses again.

Opponents’ X-Factor: RB Ashton Jeanty

Not to echo the sentiments for Week 2’s X-Factor, but the Commanders were really bad against the run in 2024. They face a back who ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns in college last season, and is now playing under Pete Carroll in what figures to be a run-heavy offense.

Jeanty is one of the most highly-touted running back prospects in recent years, and Washington’s ability to contain him will control the result of this game.

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 35, Raiders 20

Week 4: at Atlanta Falcons (Sep. 28)

Atlanta and Washington’s Week 17 primetime matchup was must-see TV. It featured two rookie quarterbacks in an overtime battle with playoff implications. The Commanders came out on top and punched their ticket to the postseason, but it was far from easy.

Bijan Robinson (98 total yards, two touchdowns) and Drake London (seven receptions for 106 yards) shined for the Falcons, but the Commanders pulled out a hard-fought win despite having to turn to secondary targets. Atlanta shut down McLaurin, who caught just one of his seven targets, and forced Washington to rely on Olamide Zaccheaus and Zach Ertz.

Atlanta’s young offense enters this matchup with a few more games under its belt. The Falcons defense, meanwhile, added Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. in the first round to bolster their pass rush.

Opponents’ X-Factor: QB Michael Penix Jr.

Penix faced Washington last season in only his second NFL start. In Week 4, he’ll have more experience guiding an offense featuring versatile skill position players and a talented offensive line.

The Falcons experienced the volatility that a quarterback can bring with Kirk Cousins at the helm last year. The second-year signal caller’s progression will likely determine the outlook for their entire offense.

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 31, Falcons 27