The exciting reality about AD Mitchell’s Jets breakout

The numbers backed up what the film showed. In metrics that measure separation, Mitchell stood out as one of the league’s better receivers in his 2024 rookie season. The following charts illustrate the glaring disparity between Mitchell’s elite separation (X axis) and his actual production (Y axis).

When Mitchell joined the Jets through the Sauce Gardner trade, it felt like New York robbed Indianapolis of a high-ceiling young weapon.

Mitchell was treated as a throw-in alongside two first-round picks, but this was a second-year player with a second-round pedigree who had built a reputation for creating big-play chances at a high rate. Since those opportunities were rarely capitalized on, his raw production appeared abysmal, which decreased his trade value.

However, the Colts should have seen through this and valued him based on the potential he displayed through his analytics and film. Instead, they seemingly determined his trade value based on his box score stats. In the end, the Jets benefited by nabbing Mitchell while his stock was low, even though it could be seen that his low stock was largely out of his control.

For the Jets, though, the catch was that Mitchell would not be entering a better environment to capitalize on his separation. The Jets have fielded one of the league’s worst passing offenses this season. Their offense did not seem likely to make up for any of the missed opportunities that the Colts couldn’t hit.

Through his first two games in New York, the Adonai Mitchell Experience played out precisely as it did in Indianapolis. Mitchell created plenty of separation, but most of it went for naught. Out of 13 targets, he caught just three passes for 52 yards. Some of the incompletions were his fault, and some were the quarterback’s fault.

The Jets witnessed everything that the Colts did: the flashes of greatness, the shaky hands, and the flat-out bad luck.

Sometimes, Mitchell was at fault for his lack of production. He had a couple of rough drops in his Jets debut against the Patriots. It continued the drop issues he struggled with in Indianapolis.

On many more instances, though, Mitchell’s bad luck from Indianapolis followed him to New York. Time and time again, he did his job and got open for a big play, but the Jets’ quarterbacks couldn’t capitalize.

After 25 games of this in Indy and two more in New York, it felt like Mitchell was due to explode soon. This couldn’t go on forever, could it? Could being missed when open really be an innate part of a receiver’s game that follows him everywhere he goes? If he’s so good at generating opportunities, the production has to come at some point, right?

It finally did—at least for one week.

Despite the inefficient results of Mitchell’s targets over his first two games, the Jets didn’t stop featuring him in their offense. In fact, they only featured him more. New York peppered him with 12 targets (compared to 13 over his first two games combined), and those passes finally delivered the desired results.

Mitchell caught eight passes for 102 yards, one touchdown, and three additional first downs. On top of that, Mitchell drew a 27-yard pass interference penalty, bringing him to a 129-yard day.

The highlight was a 52-yard touchdown bomb, which had to feel like a massive relief for Mitchell after seeing so many of those attempts fly over his head. What really makes the game stand out, though, is not just the long-awaited touchdown, but how consistent Mitchell was throughout the afternoon. Most of his catches involved some degree of difficulty, and many came at key junctures, including a pair of late receptions to set up a game-winning field goal.

It’s no surprise that the Jets only gained more trust in Mitchell despite the lackluster box-score stats he generated over his first two games. Their OC has been expecting this type of explosion from Mitchell since he arrived in New York.

When speaking to the media after Mitchell’s Jets debut, offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand sounded giddy about Mitchell’s separation. Instead of harping on the negative results from that particular game, Engstrand focused on the potential that Mitchell displayed.

“If you want to watch his performance last week, I [get] it. The drops, that happens occasionally. But what I see there is separation. I see separation, and to me, that gets me fired up. That gets me excited about that player and where he’s going to go. We haven’t even seen it. We haven’t even scratched the surface with that guy, and we’re excited about where he’s going to go.”

What Mitchell achieved against Atlanta is precisely the type of performance that Engstrand envisioned when he made those comments. And it’s not as if Engstrand’s optimism was of the blind variety that coaches tend to spew about any player on their roster down to the final practice squad guy; it was based upon cold, hard evidence that Mitchell has been stockpiling since the first game of his rookie year.

Whether you’re a film guy or a numbers guy, it’s been clear as day throughout his entire career: Mitchell profiles as a game-breaking weapon in the NFL. A thorough examination of each game he’s played would reveal that his inability to reach that ceiling is mostly not his fault, but the Colts overlooked that for some reason.

Engstrand and the Jets, however, chose not to see Mitchell for his box-score stats, but for the underlying potential hidden beneath them. On Sunday, that underlying potential finally translated to the real, tangible, beautiful box-score numbers that sell jerseys, win fantasy games, and put players on the national radar.

It’s been a long time coming, but at long last, Mitchell put together a full performance in which his opportunity creation was capitalized on. The Jets went his way often, and when they did, Tyrod Taylor delivered catchable balls. The results: excellent individual production for Mitchell, and a Jets victory.

It’s part of why the Jets benched Justin Fields for Taylor. Fields wouldn’t have given Mitchell these opportunities.

During his time under center, the Jets rarely trusted Fields to throw the ball, and when he did, he usually checked it down, scrambled, or got sacked. Under Taylor’s lead, the Jets are actually running real passing plays with full-field progressions, and they’re calling passes at a regular volume for an NFL team in 2025. Taylor dropped back 41 times against the Falcons, and that’s without the Jets being pressured to do so by the game script.

Taylor is no surgeon with his accuracy, but he’s giving his young weapons chances, and that’s all the Jets need as they seek to evaluate these high-ceiling players before the offseason. In their win over the Falcons, New York got to see what Mitchell is capable of when things are clicking around him.

It’s not all about his quarterback, though. Mitchell needs to take ownership of at least some percentage of his lackluster production. If he were a clear-cut megastar whose quarterbacks are the only thing separating him from Jerry Rice numbers, the Colts wouldn’t have traded him.

In terms of his individual performance, Mitchell’s greatest issue in the NFL has been his hands. As a rookie, Mitchell had four drops against 23 receptions for a putrid 14.8% drop rate. He also went 0-for-5 on contested targets.

These issues immediately showed up in Mitchell’s first game with the Jets. He was credited with three drops (although one arguably shouldn’t have been labeled as such, since it was a bad throw by Fields that required Mitchell to contort and attempt a circus catch) and failed to haul in multiple grabs that were difficult yet catchable.

Against Atlanta, Mitchell displayed excellent hands on a high volume of chances. He didn’t drop any passes across 12 targets and eight receptions, while he caught his only contested pass. Impressively, he did this on a relatively challenging diet of throws. There weren’t many freebies handed to him. He showed great awareness around the sideline and adjusted well to multiple imperfect passes. Not to mention, he did all of this in a rainy game.

As per usual, Mitchell’s stock moving forward comes down to that “C” word: consistency. He was long overdue to have at least one game like this. But can he do it on a routine basis?

For Mitchell, the evaluation of his consistency is different than most players. In a lot of ways, what he did on Sunday wasn’t anything new. He’s just been waiting to get a high volume of targets with reasonable accuracy. Mitchell already would have had multiple games of this caliber with better quarterback play.

What the Jets and their fans must do is continue to evaluate Mitchell based on the factors within his control.

For instance, take his game against the Falcons and remove the 52-yard touchdown. Without that, his breakout 102-yard game suddenly looks like a ho-hum 50-yard game, and it wouldn’t be getting as much attention right now.

However, it’s not the touchdown that made Mitchell’s performance a standout one in terms of his individual progress. That touchdown was just a product of Mitchell finally getting a catchable deep pass (in fact, he’s run many deep routes that were more impressive than the one he scored on).

The real standout factor of Mitchell’s performance was how consistent he was throughout the game—the frequent catches, the reliable hands, and the timely plays. We could’ve seen that without the touchdown.

Moving forward, Mitchell probably won’t have a 50-yard touchdown every week, nor will he catch for 100 yards every week. But he is still likely to draw a high volume of targets, and we can still evaluate his consistency across those opportunities within areas he can control. And if Mitchell continues improving in those areas, he will enter the 2026 season looking like a significant asset in the Jets’ offensive plans.

With no clear-cut WR2 on the roster beyond Garrett Wilson, all future spots on the Jets’ wide receiver depth chart are up for grabs. Short of Wilson’s WR1 role, there isn’t a limit to how high Mitchell can climb on the Jets’ projected 2026 depth chart before the current season ends. If he has a few more games like this, the Jets might already have a second long-term starter at wide receiver.

It would be great for Mitchell and the Jets if he continues backing up his potential with tangible production. Realistically speaking, though, it probably won’t happen. His focus (and the focus of those evaluating him) needs to remain on the primary area within his control: his reliability as a pass catcher on whatever catchable passes he does get. Can he avoid drops and catch a high rate of the tough passes?

For now, the Jets don’t have the quarterback for Mitchell to put up the numbers he did against Atlanta on a weekly basis. In due time, though, the hope is that they will have a standout quarterback who consistently capitalizes on his receivers’ separation. If Mitchell is still on the team when that time comes, it’s exciting to think about what he could achieve.

Sunday provided us a glimpse of what that might look like.