The harsh reality clouding Terry McLaurin’s future with the Commanders

Terry McLaurin is a true professional, despite all the challenges he has faced with the franchise throughout his career. The wide receiver is one of the longest tenured players on the Washington Commanders roster, remaining loyal throughout the ups and downs (mostly downs) since being drafted.

Despite having played for four different head coaches and 13 different starting quarterbacks, McLaurin has continued to show up to work and get the job done. That lunch pail mentality not only earned him a place as a team captain but has led to him being one of the most respected members of the organization.

Jayden Daniels has called McLaurin "the ultimate pro," while others like tight end Zach Ertz and All-Pro special teamer Jeremy Reaves have also highlighted his qualities in recent days.

Yet, the Commanders and McLaurin find themselves at a contract crossroads with training camp kicking off next week and the regular season less than two months away.

McLaurin is in the final year of a three-year extension he signed in 2022, and is set to count $25.5 million against the salary cap. However, only four of the 14 receivers making more in 2025 are older or have more years in the league than the Commanders' star.

After finally having a franchise quarterback to depend upon, McLaurin had a career-high 13 touchdowns in 2024. The Ohio State product also received second-team All-Pro honors for the first time in his career.

To fans, it seems like a no-brainer for the Commanders to reward McLaurin's loyalty to the franchise. But as head coach Dan Quinn said, sometimes football is a business.

Commanders' reluctance to pay Terry McLaurin lies in the statistics

Although McLaurin has only played six years in the league, he will be 30 years old in September. Not only has Harvard research found that NFL players age almost 10 years faster than the general population, but the dropoff in production after age 30 is all too real among receivers.

There are your outliers like Jerry Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, and Reggie Wayne, who far exceeded the average. Overall, based on statistics (albeit for Fantasy Football purposes), 79 percent of peak seasons occur before turning 30.

Additionally, we took a sample of 14 wide receivers who signed contracts at the age of 30 and up, comparing their season stats before and after turning 30 years old using data from Pro Football Reference.

The sample included Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, A.J. Green, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith Sr., Cole Beasley, Marvin Jones Jr., Golden Tate, DeSean Jackson, Robert Woods, Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, and T.Y. Hilton.

On average, post-30 seasons averaged a 20.98% drop off in receptions, a 29.82% drop off in receiving yards, and a 27.73% drop off in receiving touchdowns.

A potential bright note in the data could be Thielen, who also had his rookie year at age 24, similar to McLaurin.

Before 30, he averaged 53.8 receptions for 719.2 receiving yards and 4.2 receiving touchdowns. But after 30, that has increased to 72.4 receptions for 799.2 yards and 7.7 scores.

It doesn't help McLaurin's cause that both Adam Peters and Quinn have been burned in the past when signing an older receiver.

In 2017, Peters and the San Francisco 49ers signed Pierre Garcon to a five-year, $47.5 million deal with $20 million guaranteed, coming off a season where he had 79 receptions for 1041 yards and three touchdowns in Washington.

He would go on to play in 16 games across two seasons, plagued by a neck injury in 2017 and a knee injury in 2018. He didn't eclipse 40 receptions or 500 receiving yards in either season.

When Quinn was in Atlanta, the team extended Julio Jones before the 2019 season, signing him to a three-year, $66 million extension with $64 million fully guaranteed, making him the highest-paid receiver in the league at the time. He was coming off a season where he finished with 113 receptions, a league-leading 1,677 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns.

Jones stayed productive in his age-30 season, finishing with 99 receptions for 1,394 receiving yards, finishing second in the league in receiving yards and sixth in receptions. However, his stats quickly fell off from there.

The receiver only played nine games in 2020 due to hamstring injuries, finishing with 51 receptions for 771 receiving yards, before requesting a trade.

After being traded to the Tennessee Titans, his stats in 2021 continued to decline, as did his availability. He finished the 2021 season with only one game above 100 receiving yards and only played in 10 contests due to hamstring injuries.

There's no telling if McLaurin's post-30 career will peak like Wayne's or Thielen's or fall off like Jones' or Green's. However, that might provide the rationale behind what's keeping the Commanders from making a quick decision.

The situation is seemingly getting close to a breaking point. Peters and Quinn are on the clock. What are they going to do?

More Commanders news and analysis