The Must-Win Matchup That Will Shape Colts–Texans

Houston enters this week ranked No. 6 in rush defense and No. 2 in pass rush, forming one of the most efficient and disruptive fronts in football. But one stat stands out sharply: despite those top-tier rankings, the Texans sit at No. 24 in tackling.

That’s a dangerous flaw against Jonathan Taylor, who leads the league with 873 yards after contact. He feasts on defenses that struggle to finish plays, and Houston has shown those lapses repeatedly throughout the season.

For context, 873 yards after contact alone would make Taylor the sixth-leading rusher in the NFL, even if you erased all of his pre-contact yardage. He is also on pace to surpass 5,000 career yards after contact by mid-December, an absurd feat for a back only six seasons into his career.

The bounce-back numbers are even more telling, especially after Taylor posted a 58-yard outing last week against Kansas City.

In the three prior instances this season where Taylor has been held to 75 rushing yards or fewer, he responded the following week with performances of 165 yards and one touchdown, 123 yards and one touchdown, and 244 yards and three touchdowns.

When Taylor is bottled up, history says he doesn’t stay silent for long. And he tends to make up for it in a big way the following week.

The bounce-back trend continues in his scoring production. Of the three times Taylor had been held out of the end zone this season, he followed it with a three-touchdown performance the next week in two of those three games.

For Indianapolis, the formula is straightforward: if Taylor gets rolling early, the entire offensive structure opens up. Houston’s missed tackles become explosives, and the Colts can dictate pace.

But the inverse is equally significant. If the Texans contain the run, their second-ranked pass rush becomes a far bigger problem for Indianapolis.

That’s where Daniel Jones’ pressure numbers matter. He holds a 49.8 offensive grade when pressured, per Pro Football Focus, which puts an even greater premium on Indianapolis staying ahead of schedule on the ground.

This matchup revolves around physicality and early momentum. If the Colts win at the point of attack, they control the game — and if they don’t, Houston’s front can flip it fast.

In six career games versus the Texans, Taylor has averaged over 130 rushing yards per matchup. Indianapolis will look to let him dictate the game’s tempo early.

Everything funnels back to Taylor’s impact and Houston’s ability to limit it. If the Texans can’t wrap up and win on first contact, it won’t matter how strong their pass rush is—the game will tilt toward Indianapolis.