The new ground Ben Johnson can break with a winning 2025 record

However, he doesn't think he'll be among those who do fail because he finds a way. It's basically just his belief in himself.

"Here's what I’d tell you is every step of my journey, whether it's quality control, whether it was position coach, whether it was coordinator, I have found a way to change myself to be the best in that particular job," he said. "And so now that the job requirements are changing and I'm no longer just coaching an offensive player or an offensive unit."

The coordinators-turned-head coaches who face real pressure are the "flavor of the month" types, the really hot coordinators coming into a hiring cycle.

Those who win the assistant coach of the year fit this grouping. The award has been given out since 2014, and Johnson won it last season.

In more than half the seasons they gave out the award, the coach winning it went on to be a head coach the next season just like Johnson has after winning it with the Lions.

So what are Johnson's chances for success based on how past winners of the award did?

It's entirely unclear, of course, because it's a discussion of only 11 distinct individuals in separate situations.

However, one thing is clear about it: If Johnson has a winning season as a new head coach a year after winning the award he will be the first one on his side of the football ever to do it.

Johnson is the fifth offensive coordinator to win the award. Only Kyle Shanahan in 2017 with the 49ers and Pat Shurmur in 2018 with the Giants were offensive coordinators who became head coaches the next year after winning it prior to Johnson.

And Shurmur had already been a head coach so there was no real question about how he'd do—he did exactly as he had when he was in Cleveland, posting records of 5-11 and 4-12 before getting fired.

Shanahan definitely went on to be a success but his first year was 6-10 and he didn't have a winning record until Year 3.

The other offensive side coaches who won it were Baltimore's Greg Roman, who has not been a head coach, and Brian Daboll. Daboll didn't take over the Giants until two years after winning the award with the Bills, but he did took them to the playoffs in his first season when he did become a head coach.

Defensive side coaches have a better history of immediate success. Todd Bowles won it in 2014 with Arizona and then took over the Jets as head coach and they went 10-6. DeMeco Ryans had a 10-7 record in 2023 with Houston, the season after he'd been the top assistant with the 49ers as defensive coordinator.

Vic Fangio won it with the Bears in 2018 when they took the division title and were double-doinked out of the playoffs. Then he went to Denver and was the only defensive coordinator to post a losing record (7-9) as head coach a year after he was top NFL assistant.

Jim Schwartz (2023) and Wade Phillips (2015) did not become head coaches after winning the award. Both had been head coaches before, anyway. Dan Quinn also had been a head coach before when he won in 2021 and didn't become a head coach again until two more seasons passed and the Commanders hired him.

If Johnson becomes the first offensive coordinator to win the award and then put up a winning record in his first year as a head coach the next season, it's going to satisfy plenty of Bears fans.

And no doubt it will prove his point about being able to adapt to his coaching situation.

Assistant Coach of the Year

Past winners
2014—Todd Bowles, Arizona
2015—Wade Phillips, Denver
2016—Kyle Shanahan, Atlanta
2017—Pat Shurmur, Minnesota
2018—Vic Fangio, BEARS
2019—Greg Roman, Baltimore
2020—Brian Daboll, Buffalo
2021—Dan Quinn, Dallas
2022—Demeco Ryans, San Franciso
2023—Jim Schwartz, Cleveland
2024—Ben Johnson, Detroit