Three Keys to the 49ers Beating the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay

Mayfield is the league’s best at throwing deep. Against Seattle, he had six completions over 20 yards to rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka and tight end Cade Otton. Egubka is adept at reading schemes to find holes in zone coverage.

The Niners welcome back Malik Mustapha, bringing a playmaker in to replace the team’s weakest starter in pass coverage, presumably Marques Sigle. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out for Tampa, they will target Egbuka and Otton heavily. The Niner safeties and linebackers will need to respond. Dee Winters has been vulnerable in coverage, and so has Jason Pinnock. Tampa will target both.

Blitzing will be difficult as Tampa backup RB Rachaad White excels in pass protection. He was 7-7 on his blocks last week against Seattle.

Mayfield is playing with extreme confidence; given his accuracy, it’s warranted. However, there is one source of hope for the Niners. Mayfield is among the top five in turnover-worthy throws; they just haven’t been picked. He has only one interception on the year. Fred Warner, Mustapha, and the corners all need to make aggressive plays on the ball.

2. Play keep away by throwing on first down and targeting Christian McCaffrey.

Two Niner strengths play in their favor in this matchup. The Niners lead the league in throws on first down at over 75%, and the Bucs are weak defending it. A solid first-down pass sets up easier conversions and long marches down the field.

Christian McCaffrey leads all backs in receptions, and Tampa is 28th in the league defending RBs in the pass game, LaVocea Dennis is particularly vulnerable. Perhaps Tampa counters with a safety replacing Dennis. They can’t turn to DBs; injuries may lead them to start their #4 and #5 corners.

Kindle Vildor was targeted by Seattle last week. He’s the former Detroit corner who had the ball ricochet off his face mask shield and into the hands of Brandon Aiyuk in the 2023 NFC Championship.

Running with McCaffrey is unlikely to succeed up the middle with Vita Vea inside. However, the Bucs have lost Calijah Kancey to injury, and that was felt last week. The Bucs were solid against the run at 3.5 yards per carry, but last week against Seattle, without Kancey, that jumped to 6.1. There may be an opportunity to run successfully in this game.

Both teams are poor in the red zone -- the Niners need to throw more often and give the ball to Brian Robinson Jr. inside the 20. McCaffrey has 16 red zone carries for just ten yards on the year.

3. Keep Mac Jones upright with a short passing attack.

Jones is dealing with injuries to his knee and oblique, the latter limiting his throwing in practice this week. He may struggle to finish the game and won’t be close to 100%, but handing the keys to third-stringer Adrian Martinez is risky.

Extended handoff throws wide and quick passes in the middle of the field will protect Jones. The same recipe that succeeded against the Rams. If the offensive line is winning its matchup, the Niners can test the Bucs' depleted secondary deep.

The game plan for Tampa is Mayfield, Egbuka, and Otton attacking the Niner zone intermediate to deep, targeting Winters and Pinnock. With the Bucs star back Bucky Irving out, they use White sparingly to run just enough to establish some balance. White is also a capable receiver.

Prediction (3-2)

For the Niners, this game depends on the health of Mac Jones. How much will the oblique injury limit him? If Jones is compromised by the injuries, or can’t finish, Tampa wins. If Jones can produce as he has going 3-0, the Niners have a good shot, provided they can turn Mayfield over. I have Jones holding up and the Niners getting a pick.

49ers 27 Bucs 24