Coming off a season in which they blew the third-largest lead in NFL playoff history, the Los Angeles Chargers and their QB, Justin Herbert, nonetheless seem primed for a big 2023.
Per OddsChecker, Herbert is among the favorites to lead the NFL in passing yards and earn MVP. Here’s are three reasons why Herbert is a great bet to have a great 2023.
1. Quentin Johnston joins a stacked receiving corps
The Chargers selected the former TCU star in the first round of the NFL Draft in April. He and Mike Williams are outstanding vertical threats in a receiving corps that includes a healthy Keenan Allen, a great depth piece in Joshua Palmer, tight end Gerald Everett, who's coming off his best season as a pro, and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield.
Herbert’s splits with and without Allen and Williams jump off the page. Adding Johnston to that receiver room should provide depth if one of them were to go down with an injury or at least provide another deep option opposite Williams.
Justin Herbert splits by available WR
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) January 13, 2023
both Keenan Allen & Mike Williams IN:
+0.17 EPA/att, 7.9 YPA (147 att)
Keenan IN but Mike OUT:
-0.07 EPA/att, 6.6 YPA (166 att)
Herbert's 3rd down conversion rate drops from 46% to 30% w/o Mike
his sack/INT rate goes UP to 11% from 7%
2. Kellen Moore in, Joe Lombardi out as offensive coordinator
Former Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombard sometimes couldn’t figure out how to get the ball to Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson during his time as Lions offensive coordinator. He was fired following the Chargers' playoff loss to the Jaguars last season. Los Angeles had led 27-0 at one point during the first half.
In 2022, Los Angeles led the NFL in plays run on third down — in other words, they were terrible at moving the sticks on first or second down. Herbert ranked 38th in average depth of target out of 40 passers who qualified and was 23rd in yards per attempt despite throwing for the second-most passing yards in the NFL (4,739). Lombardi wouldn't consistently push the ball down field despite his QB being the offense's best asset.
In comes Moore, the former Cowboys offensive coordinator who became Mike McCarthy’s fall guy following Dallas' second consecutive playoff loss to the 49ers.
Dallas’ offense ranked first and fourth in points scored in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and second and 10th in yards per game. Dak Prescott threw for more touchdowns in 2021 (37) than any year in his career before playing behind an injured offensive line and without enough skill-position talent around him in 2022.
Pre-snap motion is one of the simplest ways in which offenses can create a numbers advantage or simply slow down one or more defenders. The top offensive minds in the NFL use it the most. It's proven to be an advantage for offenses. Yet in 2021, Lombardi's Chargers offense used pre-snap motion at the eighth-lowest clip in the league, 19% less than Dallas' 10th-highest usage rate.
With Moore calling plays, the sky's the limit for Herbert.
3. Improved offensive line
Left tackle Rashawn Slater missed the majority of the 2022 season with a torn biceps. That paved the way for rookie sixth-round pick Jamaree Salyer to earn his keep in Slater’s place. Slater should return to left tackle this season, making the line much better, while Salyer gives the Chargers another competent lineman to start at either the left guard or right tackle spot.
Veteran center Corey Linsley returns for another season with second-year pro Zion Johnson and veteran Trey Pipkins rounding out the group. Slater returns to a unit that will look to improve on its league-average rankings in ESPN’s pass-block win rate, Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking efficiency metric and Football Outsiders’ pass-protection DVOA.
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