Jan 11, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) smiles after a touchdown pass during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC Wild Card Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images David Butler II-Imagn Images

Three Reasons Patriots Could Lose to Texans

Originally posted on New England Patriots on SI
By Jeremy Brener | Last updated Jan 16, 2026 1:00 PM ET

The New England Patriots are entering their Divisional Round matchup against the Houston Texans as a favorite at home, but no games are easy at this point in the season.

The Texans started the season 0-3 and were 3-5 in early November, but they won their final nine games of the year and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round to punch their ticket to Foxboro. The Texans pose a tough task, so here are three reasons why the Patriots could lose against Houston.

Texans Pass Rush Pressures Drake Maye Too Much

Drake Maye could very well be the MVP of the league this season, but he hasn't faced a defense quite like the Texans, which generates as much pressure as anyone in the NFL. If the Texans grab an early lead, it will force Maye to pass more, which could make him susceptible to more turnovers.

The Texans are a team with playmakers at every position, including Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. on each side of the defensive line. Will Campbell and Morgan Moses need to be on their A-game if the Patriots are going to pull out a win.

Patriots Defense Isn't Aggressive Enough

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud turned the ball over three times against the Steelers in the Wild Card round. It's possible that he may have felt pressure from the playoff atmosphere Pittsburgh provided, so the New England faithful will have to do the same in Foxboro. However, it was more than just the crowd that forced those turnovers.

The Steelers defense was formidable against the Texans offense, but Aaron Rodgers and the rest of Pittsburgh's offense couldn't capitalize on the mistakes Stroud was making. If the Texans defense is going to force turnovers and try to win the game with their aggressiveness, the Patriots defense has to try and match that energy.

Patriots Aren't Ready For The Moment

The Pats have a young team, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Texans have been to the Divisional Round in each of the last three years and this is the hurdle they have tripped up at each time.

A win for the Texans would mark their first trip to the AFC Championship in franchise history and this is something they have worked towards for the past three seasons ever since Stroud was drafted and head coach DeMeco Ryans was hired in 2023. They have been more battle-tested than the Pats, so in a game where the rosters are pretty even, that could be a deciding factor.

This article first appeared on New England Patriots on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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