Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Steelers Tonight

The Green Bay Packers started the season with sensational victories over the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders. Can they get back to that level of play against the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers?

Yes. Here are three reasons why the Packers will win their third consecutive game and win in Pittsburgh for the first time since Bart Starr was the quarterback in 1970.

1. No Stopping Josh Jacobs

The United States Postal Service motto states, “Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night” will prevent the mail from being delivered. For Packers running back Josh Jacobs, neither defenses focused on stopping him, illness nor calf injuries will prevent him from scoring touchdowns.

Jacobs is second in the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns. He’s scored two rushing touchdowns in three consecutive games, a feat accomplished over the past two decades by Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson.

“The only thing I can describe is when I know I’m in the zone, when I’m in the game, I can’t see the crowd, I can’t see the sideline, I can’t see nothing but the field. All I can hear is myself breathe,” Jacobs said this week.

“That’s when I know, yeah, I’m in that zone, I feel free, I feel like I can do no wrong. We call it ‘flow state.’ It’s one of those things where I don’t know, you get into those zones and you get into that place and you come out of body, almost.”

With the game on the line last week at Arizona, Jacobs scored the winning touchdown, even though coach Matt LaFleur half-jokingly said nobody was blocked on the final two runs.

There will be opportunities this week because the Steelers’ run defense is quite blockable. Pittsburgh ranks 18th in rushing yards allowed per game (115.8) and 20th in yards allowed per attempt (4.43). Cincinnati’s Chase Brown, who was last in the NFL in yards per carry before he faced the Packers a couple weeks ago, ripped the Steelers for 108 yards on just 11 carries.

Jacobs delivered like the USPS with the game on the line last week. With the calf injury mostly in the rear-view mirror, he hopes he can get back into that flow state by getting into more of a flow, period.

“I feel like I had moments. I get in it and then I might sit for a while and I kind of fall out of it. But I’ve had moments, for sure,” he said.

“Most of the time,” he added, “I try my best not to leave games feeling like I left some stuff out there on the field because, most of the time when I do that, I can’t sleep at night and I’ll be up for the next couple of days just thinking about it. For me, man, I just try to do what I can.”

It won’t be easy. The line hasn’t given Jacobs much room to run, and run defense was the focus for the Steelers this week after last week’s shootout loss at the Bengals.

“I got a simple answer for you: We have to stop the run,” Steelers defensive coordinator Teryl Austin told reporters in Pittsburgh. “When you allow teams to run, then it opens up all kinds of things. Opens up play-action pass, opens up or shrinks your menu, because what you do now is you’re doing things to make sure you have to bring possibly extra guys down to try to stop the run.

“So, the bottom line is we got to be able to stop the run, and then I think that opens up and allows us to play well.”

2. On the Other Hand

Pittsburgh has struggled to run the football. While it crushed the Bengals with 147 yards and a 7.4-yard average last week – Cincinnati can’t stop anyone from running the ball – Pittsburgh failed to reach even 75 rushing yards in any of the first three games. It enters this game ranked 25th with 94.5 rushing yards per game and 23rd with 3.94 rushing yards per attempt.

Green Bay’s run defense has been strong all season. It’s allowed only one 100-yard rushing game all season (Dallas had 117) and entered this week’s games ranked second in rushing yards allowed per game (76.5) and fourth in rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.53).

It’s quite simple, really. If the Packers can stop Pittsburgh’s running game, it can create third-and-long situations. On third-and-long, Aaron Rodgers will have to hold the ball, which will give Green Bay’s pass rush – which should get a boost with the return of Devonte Wyatt – a chance to envelop the 41-year-old quarterback.

“Don’t let Rodgers get to his spot,” Micah Parsons said. “I would say when he’s in sync, it’s like poetry. Every throw’s on the money, everything’s in sync. You have to find ways to disrupt the tendencies, disrupt the stop, disrupt the way where he twists, like if he can throw off his foot the right way – those type of little things. It’s always going to be the little things with the OGs.”

If it’s a third-and-short game, Rodgers can rely on the quick game all season; he is No. 1 in yards after the catch per completion by almost a full yard over the runner-up, who happens to be Jordan Love.

Green Bay’s run defense should win this matchup. And it must.

3. Primetime J-Love

Jordan Love loves Sunday nights.

This will be his fifth Sunday night start. The Packers are 3-0-1 in his starts, and Love has recorded passer ratings of 118.6, 125.3, 123.8 and 118.1. Dating to 2000, according to the Packers’ Dope Sheet, Love is the only quarterback with a rating of at least 115 in four consecutive starts. He is No. 1 among all quarterbacks with a 121.1 passer rating and tied for No. 1 with 11 touchdown passes. Among all quarterbacks since 2000 to throw at least 100 passes on Sunday night, Love trails only Drew Brees in passer rating.

That doesn’t mean a hill of beans for this Sunday night, just like Green Bay’s five-plus-decade losing streak in Pittsburgh is irrelevant. But it does show that Love hasn’t been fazed by the bright lights of primetime. With the quarterbacks in the spotlight more than ever this week, Love probably won’t shrink from that moment.

Love entered Sunday ranked sixth with a 108.1 passer rating. Efficiency had been an issue during his first two seasons but he’s sixth with a 69.3 completion percentage.  

“He has a big arm. He has good mobility,” Steelers defensive coordinator Teryl Austin said. “He does a really good job in terms of when he gets out of there, he can get out of the pocket (and) he can still launch the ball down the field. Knows who to get the ball to.

“He's done a good job. They don't have a lot of turnovers. They take care of the ball. So that's a challenge he brings us. We just got to make sure we try to get him off-schedule so the play-action and things that he does and does well aren't as big a factor for us.”

Love has thrown two interceptions – only Justin Fields with zero and Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts with one apiece had fewer – and lost only one fumble for a total of three turnovers. He will be tested by a Steelers defense that is tied for fifth with 10 takeaways.