The Green Bay Packers are 2-0 after two of the most impressive wins of this young NFL season. The Cleveland Browns are 0-2 after getting trounced last week and going 3-14 last season.
On paper, the Packers should roll. Games aren’t played on paper. Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose to the Browns on Sunday. (The opposite side of this story will be published later in the day.)
The Browns have a tremendous defense. They are No. 1 in the NFL in total defense and No. 1 by a wide margin in rushing defense with just 2.07 yards allowed per carry. Yeah, but who’d they play? Well, last week they faced the Ravens. Last season, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson was No. 1 in yards per carry and running back Derrick Henry was No. 3. Those two combined 36 yards on 13 carries.
Incredibly, the Browns have allowed negative rushing yards before contact, according to Pro Football Focus. In Week 1, Cincinnati’s Chase Brown rushed 21 times for 43 yards, with 50 yards coming after contact. In Week 2, Henry rushed 11 times for 23 yards, with 27 coming after contact. Added together, the Browns have allowed 91 rushing yards, with minus-20 before contact and 111 after contact.
That runs in parallel to Green Bay’s struggles running the football. While Josh Jacobs ranks eighth in the league with 150 rushing yards, he’s 32nd with 3.57 yards per carry. According to PFF, he has 127 yards after contact.
“I think it’s just about consistency, details, whether it’s staying on blocks or whether it’s running harder,” Jacobs said of that state of the running game. “It’s things that’s easy to fix – very easy to fix. It’s just more so that we’ve all got to be on the same page and locked in to do it.
“A lot of these teams that we play, we already know that they’re going to load the box. It’s going to be eight to nine guys in there, safety’s going to be flowing hard. It just is what it is. This is what we’ve got to expect so we’ve got to learn how to make adjustments from it.”
Jacobs has the attention of Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who is one of the best in the business. If he can stop Jacobs, he can potentially take away Green Bay’s play-action passing game, as well.
“Jacobs is their lead ball-carrier and sort of an old-school, full-time running back,” Schwartz told reporters in Cleveland this week. “Breaks a lot of tackles. Really strong, great contact balance and really, really good vision. He presses the hole as good as any running back, if not better than any running back, in the league. We got to be really physical at the line and we can’t peek out of gaps because he can find those holes and find creases that way.”
Good defense on first down, obviously, improves the defense’s chances on third down. No different than the Packers, that’s how the Browns want to play – stop the run, create third-and-long and let their pass rushers go on the attack.
Cleveland has arguably the best pass rusher in the NFL with Myles Garrett. Garrett ranks No. 1 in NFL history in sacks per game, his 0.89 just ahead of T.J. Watt and Reggie White, according to Statmuse.
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