Three Reasons Why Packers Will Turn Lions Into Turkeys

The Green Bay Packers won’t have turkey on their plates on Thursday. What they will have is a golden opportunity when they face the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving.

An opportunity to earn a statement victory on the road against a premier team.

A chance to sweep a division rival and perhaps knock it out of the playoff race.

A chance to take an enormous step toward winning the NFC North.

With the table set, here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions at Ford Field for the second time in three years.

1. Winning vs. Man

The Lions’ defense is going to challenge Green Bay’s receivers. According to data provided to Packers On SI by Pro Football Focus, the Lions have played the second-highest percentage of man coverage in the NFL.

“They are who they are,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “They’re going to challenge you every step of the way. They bring pressure, they play man, they get their hands on you. They do a really nice job.

“They’re aggressive, so that’s one thing we just got to be ready for. Be ready to handle that. That’s the big challenge about playing those guys. It’s going to be tough on the road, too, with all the communication and things they do. It’s going to be a good test for us.”

It’s a test the Packers’ passing game has, well, passed. In fact, Jordan Love has been significantly better vs. man coverage. Here’s Love’s man vs. zone stats from PFF, with rankings based on the top 34 quarterbacks in snaps:

PFF Passing Grade: 92.0 vs. man ranks No. 1; 73.8 vs. zone.

Passer Rating: 112.4 vs. man ranks No. 7; 90.6 vs. zone.

Big Time Throw Percentage: 9.7% vs. man ranks third; 3.6% vs. zone.

Yard Per Attempt: 7.8 vs. man ranks sixth; vs. 7.6 vs. zone.

Notably, Love was excellent against the Lions in Week 1, and he had strong games recently against the Giants and Steelers, who play the third-most man coverage snaps, according to Sharp Football.

“Offensively, it starts with Love,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters on Tuesday. “He's just dynamic, gives his guys a chance, plays with poise, processes defense pressure quickly, sees the field very well and gives his guys a chance to make the play.”

The Lions under first-year coordinator Kelvin Sheppard are a different team now compared to September, as you’d expect.

“Honestly, really their confidence,” receiver Christian Watson said of the difference since the opener. “Looks like they’re just going out there and playing free and just having a trust in what their plan is. They’ve just making plays. So, we’ve got to find a way to consistently beat them. They’re going to be in a lot of man. They have a lot of faith in their front to get home if they play man on the back end. So, I’m excited for that.”

The Lions have a quality secondary, though they miss All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph. Over the last three games, they are 24th in opponent passer rating. While they are sixth in opponent passer rating in home games this season, they gave up 399 passing yards in just 19 completions against the Giants last week.

“Some good, some bad,” Stenavich said of the offense’s success vs. man. “I think you can always be better when you’re thinking about things. But I believe in our guys. I think we got guys that can get open versus man coverage. So, I’m excited to see what happens this Thanksgiving.”

2. Winning on Energy

This won’t be evident in the first quarter or even the first half. But it could be the game-deciding factor in the fourth quarter.

On Sunday, the Packers beat the Vikings with relative ease. In a game that lasted less than 3 hours, the defense was on the field for just 44 snaps. Micah Parsons, Green Bay’s premier pass rusher, played 40 snaps. Meanwhile, the Lions beat the Giants in overtime. In a game that lasted almost 3 1/2 hours, their defense was on the field for 82 snaps. Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit’s premier pass rusher, played 77 snaps.