Three wide receivers to avoid in fantasy football

The NFL preseason is wrapping up, which means most fantasy football drafts are set to begin. Here are three wide receivers you should consider fading in 12-team ESPN PPR redraft leagues when on the clock.

Mike Evans, Buccaneers (ADP: 70.5)

Yes, Evans is the first player in history with nine straight 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career, but his past success doesn't justify a sixth-round pick in 2023. 

New Tampa Bay starting quarterback Baker Mayfield said it himself: he's "not built like" Tom Brady. While that quote was intended to imply that Mayfield won't let the fact that he's replacing the G.O.A.T. affect how he carries himself, it should double as a warning to fantasy managers. 

Although it wasn't too long ago that Mayfield supported a pair of fantasy-relevant wideouts, Evans -- last year's WR17 -- might not be the wideout to roster on a Buccaneers team that's expected to struggle this season. During the 2019 season, when Mayfield was the starter for the Cleveland Browns, Jarvis Landry finished as the WR12 in PPR formats, while Odell Beckham Jr. finished as the WR25.

Even so, the Buccaneers likely aren't getting 2019 Mayfield, who averaged 239.2 passing yards per game, and will instead see production similar to last season's 180.3 yards per game. And considering Evans is 30, it's unrealistic to expect him to finish among the top 25 receivers as Beckham did during his age-27 season.

Chris Godwin's role as a short-range pass-catching specialist is tailor-made for Mayfield's game and should be compared to Landry's duties in Cleveland, which makes him the Buccaneer to target. If you're in need of a wide receiver in the middle rounds, someone like Washington's Terry McLaurin or Chargers wideout Mike Williams would be far better alternatives to Evans. 

Christian Kirk, Jaguars (ADP: 92.3)

Kirk was an absolute steal in drafts last year, with the former Cardinal finishing as the WR12 in his first season in Jacksonville. Although it's fair to assume that quarterback Trevor Lawrence will take a significant step forward this season, it appears Kirk's role in the Jaguars' offense will be somewhat different.

Last season's trade acquisition WR Calvin Ridley is finally set to see action after last playing in 2021 as a member of the Falcons. Although it's tough to predict how Ridley will fare after being two years removed from the NFL, he should quickly emerge as Jacksonville's No. 1 option in the passing game. 

In Jacksonville's second preseason game, Ridley and Zay Jones were the ones on the field in two wide receiver sets for the Jaguars instead of Kirk. If this continues into the season, Kirk probably won't be nearly as effective and will be extremely inconsistent. If you aren’t rostering Lawrence and are given the option, take a player with less risk, such as Baltimore RB J.K. Dobbins, or a reliable tight end in Pittsburgh's Pat Freiermuth over Kirk. 

Deebo Samuel, 49ers (ADP: 36.3)

As a member of one of the NFL's most crowded offensive units, which is quite unpredictable for fantasy purposes, Samuel is one of the biggest gambles for your buck this season. 

Samuel was a league-winner in 2021, finishing as the WR3 overall after recording 1,770 total yards and 14 touchdowns, but last season was a complete 180. Anyone could have predicted that Samuel wouldn't duplicate his eight rushing touchdowns from 2021, though expecting him to finish as the WR28 on a points-per-game basis is a different story.

Injuries, poor production and the mid-season addition of star running back Christian McCaffrey tanked Samuel's production last season, tallying 864 all-purpose yards and five total touchdowns. Full health and not having to deal with contract negotiations this offseason should help Samuel post better results in a better 2023. However, McCaffrey's presence will still ruin Samuel's fantasy value.

In six games without McCaffrey last season, Samuel averaged 15.2 PPR points per game, a dramatic difference from the 11 points he averaged in seven contests with the dual-threat tailback. With McCaffrey cutting into Samuel's workload and effectively capping his rushing upside, it doesn't make too much sense to select him over Ridley, ESPN's 17th-ranked receiver according to ADP.