Thursday Night Football Touchdown Prop Pick: Looking to a Backup TE

For the most part, I'll be betting .5u on each touchdown pick I recommend. Given the odds, we just need to hit on a few of these, especially at the odds I prefer, to turn a profit. Let's get to Thursday's pick, currently listed at a tantalizing +650.

Noah Gray (+650 DraftKings)

Travis Kelce is the heaviest favorite to find the end zone on Thursday, -150 to -190 on most books. Naturally, I gravitated towards the tight end position and opted to look at who plays behind him,

It wasn't just that Kelce is the betting favorite, it's the Chargers. Last season, Los Angeles let up 13 touchdowns to the TE position, the second-most in the NFL. While no Raiders tight ends scored in Week 1, Darren Waller did catch four balls for 79 yards.

Last season in two games, the Chiefs tight ends caught three touchdowns against the Chargers. Two were from Kelce (in the same game) and one was from Jody Fortson

The backup TEs in Kansas City are Noah Gray and Fortson and both were heavily involved in Week 1, albeit in a blowout.

Gray played 53% of the offensive snaps and was targeted twice, while Fortson was on the field for 34% of snaps and saw one target.

Despite this, Fortson's odds to score are closer to +500, likely because he scored on that one target last week and scored against the Chargers last season. He also caught a few touchdowns during the preseason.

Volume is king for me, and Gray saw both of his targets in the red zone on Sunday. That's the same number of red zone looks that Kelce saw.

That's enough for me to follow these odds. It's a plus-matchup for tight ends, and I'm going for value. If you like watching heartbreak and agree with the read but want a different bet, you have two alternative options: Fortson TD at +550 on BetMGM or Kelce to score twice at +470 on FD.

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. Griffin can be found on Twitter @griffybets.