TNF matchup presents value, so let's dive right in 

Tonight's "Thursday Night Football" game is likely not the one schedule-makers anticipated it would be, so while the firepower may not be at full force, it's still NFL. We're watching and betting.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

Indianapolis: 1-2-1 overall, 1-3 ATS, 0-4 overs
Denver: 2-2 overall, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 overs

Both of these teams have been nothing short of disappointments to start the 2022 season. Matt Ryan and the Colts haven't been able to generate nearly enough offense, and now Jonathan Taylor is out for an undisclosed amount of time. Russell Wilson and the Broncos have been anemic to start the year, often going three-and-out. The offense took a hit for Wilson and company, as young emerging running back Javonte Williams tore his ACL last week. Denver ranks 30th in points per game, while Indianapolis is dead-last. Temper your expectations for tonight. This would not be a good game to load up on a lot of touchdown parlays.

Over the past five seasons, no quarterback has been less profitable ATS than Ryan. Ryan is 26-41-1 ATS since the beginning of 2018, the worst mark among qualifying passers.

Tonight's Same Game Parlay starts with a Teaser

We've established above that points will be at a premium, so that is where tonight's play begins. You could take the standard under, currently listed at 42.5 points, but we prefer some breathing room. We're moving the total up as our first SGP leg, an option available to you on all major books. We'll roll with the standard six-point teaser approach, taking under 48.5 points. The Colts have yet to exceed 41 total points in any of their games this year, and besides last week's loss to the Raiders (55 points), Denver's totals have been under 33 points in each of their first three games.

At home, the Broncos feel likely to take this game. They haven't shown much of anything this year, but they are 2-0 in Denver. The loss of Jonathan Taylor is the death knell for Indianapolis, so much of what this offense does runs through Taylor. Despite his early season struggles, he's still one of the most talented backs in football, and his absence will be felt. The Broncos are currently 3.5-point favorites, so we'll pick an alternate spread of Denver +3.5 to be our second leg.

Melvin Gordon is the first player prop we look to tonight. You have to go back to the 2020 season to see how Gordon fared without Williams in the lineup, but the results were strong to end that year. Gordon's final five games of the 2020 season saw him rush for 60+ yards in each game, averaging 86.4 yards per game. Now, Gordon has had some fumbling issues this season, but he's still expected to take the majority of the carries in this game. Derrick Henry finished with 114 rushing yards against Indy last week, and James Robinson and Rex Burkhead both went over their rushing yards total in Weeks 1-2 against this defense. Gordon's over/under tonight is 58.5, but we'll move that down in the name of safety. Give us Gordon 45+ rushing yards on DK's SGP option.

We've seen some solid receiver outputs against this Broncos defense the past few weeks. Davante Adams finished with 101 and Mack Hollins had 33 in Week 4. Deebo Samuel had 73 and Brandon Aiyuk 39 in Week 3. Week 2 saw both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins rack up 50+ receiving yards. It's Alec Pierce we turn to on this Indianapolis offense to pile up some yards through the air tonight. The rookie receiver is averaging 20.1 yards per catch this season and has finished with 61 and 80 yards in the past two weeks. He's shown to be a vertical threat, so while the Denver secondary works to shut down Michael Pittman, Pierce should see some one-on-one matchups that will allow him to hit this number. We're betting Pierce goes for 30+ yards tonight.

In all, this forms a solid +320 SGP on DraftKings for tonight's action. To recap:

• Under 48.5 points
• Broncos +3.5
• Melvin Gordon 45+ rushing yards
• Alec Pierce 30+ receiving yards

Enjoy tonight's game. We'll see you back here tomorrow to break down the full Week 5 slate in the NFL.

In the news ...

MLB playoffs set — The 12-team playoff field is now set in baseball, and the Wild Card Series round begins Friday with four games. Four teams have byes this weekend: the Astros and Yankees in the American League and the Dodgers and Braves in the National League. For a full betting look into the playoff landscape, check out Jared Shlensky's playoff preview here. We like the value on Seattle winning the Wild Card Series over Toronto at +148. It should be a great October in MLB.

NHL regular season begins tomorrow — It's a bit of an unorthodox schedule, but the NHL regular season begins Friday at 2 p.m. ET as the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks play a back-to-back in Prague. The first full week of NHL begins this coming Tuesday, and here at YB, we have you covered with NHL betting prep for the season. We dug into the Hart Trophy odds earlier this week, and we're liking Nathan MacKinnon at +1000. If you're looking to reacclimate yourself with some of the most vulnerable teams for goals and props, we took stock of the league for you.

Hype growing for NBA prospect Victor Wembanyama — Presumptive top pick in next year's NBA Draft Victor Wembanyama played his first game in America this week, and let's just say it was a success. Wembanyama's French team faced off against the G League Ignite, and the 7-foot-3 big man finished with 37 points (seven threes) and five blocks. The display has NBA GMs buzzing, with one anonymous exec predicting the race to the bottom of the standings this year will be unlike anything we've ever seen. Currently, it's the Spurs with the lowest win total on DraftKings, at 22.5, followed by the Rockets, Thunder and Pacers all at 23.5.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll