TNF player props: Great game to bet on big plays

In total, Waddle has logged five catches of 20+ yards, but so often seeing him break free for a huge chunk gain is encouraging here against a very vulnerable Cincinnati defense.

The Bengals have allowed 12 passes of 20+ yards, tied for fourth-most in the league, seven of which have come from the receiver position. Their DADOT (which quantifies how far down the field offenses target them) is 8.2, good for the eighth-highest mark in the league. Last season was a similar story, giving me confidence to target them tonight.

Waddle's aDOT of 11.6 tops the Dolphins, and he also leads the team in yards per reception (18.0) and yards after the catch per reception (7.1). The man is a walking big play, and I'm betting he keeps it rolling tonight.

Ja'Marr Chase over 25.5 long reception (-105 DK)

This is very much a bet on what hasn't been. Tee Higgins is a great look tonight, but I am finding myself suckered into betting on a player that just feels due. I never much like using that term, but there is data to back up that belief.

Through three games, Chase has a long of just 24 yards, his only 20+ yard catch of the season. This is very unusual for a player of Chase's caliber. He's on the field for nearly the entire game and leads the team in targets, so what gives?

Cincinnati has played some tough defenses in Pittsburgh and Dallas, and even the Jets have been tighter to long plays to start the season. The offensive line has been a problem, tied for the most sacks allowed this year with 15. 

This feels like a nice turn for the Bengals. PFF has Miami's pass-rush as an average unit, and the Dolphins' six sacks are tied for seventh-fewest in the league.

Miami has allowed nine completions of 20+ yards, twice seeing a passing play exceed 40 yards in the air. Two-thirds of those plays have been to receivers, and the Dolphins rank inside the top-ten of two important metrics: opponent's yards per pass attempt and DADOT. Seeing a convergence here is always the green light to me, this secondary can be beat, and teams are trying to do it on a weekly basis.

Back to Chase. Despite the slow start, he is still tied with Higgins with three targets 20+ yards down the field. His aDOT and yards per catch are down a bit to start the year, but again I'm crediting that to the teams the Bengals have faced.

This is a guy who had an elite rookie season. His 22 catches of 20+ yards was fourth-highest in the NFL, and his eight catches of 40+ yards was the second-highest mark in the league. His aDOT last year topped this Bengals team, and 27.2% of his catches last season went for 20+ yards, the 11th-highest percentage among qualifying pass-catchers.

Chase will be matched up on Xavien Howard tonight, who is a strong corner but has certainly allowed his fair share of long completions. Howard topped the Dolphins last season with yards per reception allowed, at 14.9 and his 16.7 mark through three games is even higher.

It's time for Chase to have a big game, and no better time than in front of a national audience.

Good luck tonight!