Trying to Make Sense of Another Late-Game Failure

It was deja vu all over again for the Miami Dolphins.

Yes, the biggest reason the Dolphins lost against a mediocre Carolina Panthers team at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday was a run defense that allowed 239 yards, 206 coming from the No. 2 running back, but the truth is the Dolphins still had a chance at the end.

And for the third time this season, the Dolphins flubbed a late-game situation with the difference between a win or a loss riding on the outcome.

BRUTAL END

Despite giving up a touchdown after a second fourth-down conversion by the Panthers, the Dolphins offense got the ball back and started its final drive at its own 22 with 1:54 remaining with all three timeouts left.

What followed was a simply brutal sequence where the only thing the Dolphins did right — get this? — was stop the run.

There was the three-and-out by the offense that featured an incompletion into tight coverage, a bad overthrow on a pass Tua Tagovailoa usually completes in his sleep, followed by a third-down sack where rookie guard Jonah Savaiinaea again was beaten at the line and Tagovailoa held on to the ball when he could have checked down to De'Von Achane after he leaked out of the backfield.

This was not Tua at his finest right there, but we'll get to that later.

After the sack, the Dolphins made the decision to punt on fourth-and-17 from their 15-yard line, but before we debate the merits of that call let's all agree the Dolphins letting 32 seconds go off the clock after Tagovailoa was sacked was really poor clock management — even if the Panthers were going to do nothing but run the ball three times.

Anyway, as we all know, the Dolphins held Rico Dowdle to gains of 3 and 2 yards on the first two downs, calling a timeout after each, leaving the game to come down to a third-and-5, which Carolina converted when Jack Jones was flagged for defensive pass interference.

Back to the fourth-and-17 decision, analytics certainly supported Mike McDaniel's decision because NFL teams were 0-for-17 when going for it on fourth-and-16 or longer in 2024.

Ironically, the one team that converted a fourth-and-16 this season was the Panthers, who did it with a 26-yard pass from Bryce Young to Brycen Tremayne late in their Week 2 loss against the Arizona Cardinals. The only other attempt on fourth-and-16 or longer this season came from the Minnesota Vikings, who were unsuccessful.

So the odds suggested it was highly unlikely the Dolphins would have gotten the first down.

The argument for going for it is that the Dolphins needed a defensive stop whether they punted or failed on fourth down and they could have gotten the ball back even if Carolina got a field goal out of a turnover on downs.

The argument against that logic, though, is that the Dolphins then would have needed a touchdown with likely no timeout left and maybe a minute on the clock.

Not a great scenario either way.

In reality, the game was decided with that third-down sack.

OFFENSE COMES UP SHORT AGAIN

For all the failings of the defense in 2025 — and they're very obvious — the offense is supposed to carry this team and it was humming on the first three possessions with two touchdowns and a field goal on the board.

But, in a repeat of the games against New England in Week 2 and Buffalo in Week 3, the offense came up short when it most needed to stand tall.

And, like it or not, a lot of it falls on Tagovailoa because he's the franchise quarterback and the guy being paid like it.

The Dolphins had two chances at the end of the New England game with the offense on the field, but the drives ended with an interception and then a turnover on downs.

Against Buffalo, the Dolphins had a do-or-die drive after falling behind 28-21 and it ended with another interception.

Tua is having another good statistical season so far if passer rating is the gauge because he's currently at 100.1 and he's also tied for third in touchdown passes with 10, but the other side of his performance has been the inability to come through at the end.

Yes, he did have the 46-yard touchdown pass to Jaylen Waddle with 4:32 left against Carolina, though that pass was way more about Waddle being wide open than the throw itself.

Likewise, the late-game failures are not entirely on Tua, who's still operating behind a shaky offensive line, but it's also clear he's not doing his part in those situations.

And as bad as the defense has been and injuries have been costly, turning around the outcome of one of those late-game game-deciding drive drastically would change the outlook for the season because 2-3 in a watered-down AFC would look a whole lot different.

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