Dec 28, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough (6) runs with the ball against the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Tyler Shough, Saints Will Decide NFC South Champion

Originally posted on New Orleans Saints on SI
By Patrick McAvoy | Last updated Jan 4, 2026 8:49 AM ET

Neither the New Orleans Saints nor the Atlanta Falcons will win the NFC South division, but the matchup between these two teams will determine the winner on Sunday.

Right now, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers are tied atop the division at 8-9. The Falcons are behind them at 7-9 and the red-hot Saints are just out of reach at 6-10. The Buccaneers and Panthers faced off on Saturday with the Buccaneers. With the Buccaneers and Panthers tied in the standings, the NFC South champion will come down to tiebreakers. Sports Illustrated's Tyler Lauletta explained the breakdown well on Saturday.

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It's going to be a big day

"With the Bucs win, both Tampa Bay and Carolina are now 8–9 on the year, tied atop the NFC South standings," Laulette wrote. "Should they remain the only two teams at 8–9, the tiebreaker would eventually come down to common opponents, sending the Bucs to the playoffs. However, while the Falcons were technically eliminated from postseason contention when they dropped to 4–9 back in Week 14, they have since won three straight games, and with a win over New Orleans on Sunday, could end the year at 8–9 and thus force a three-way tie atop the division standings.

"The first tiebreaker in both a two-way and three-way tie is head-to-head matchups. Since the Bucs and Panthers split their season series, their two-way tie then goes to division record (also tied) before finally coming down to record against common opponents, where Tampa would advance."

So, if the Saints were to win on Sunday, they would advance to 7-10 and drop the Falcons' record to 7-10. In that scenario, it would just be the Buccaneers and Panthers tied atop the division and Tampa Bay would have the tiebreaker and advance. If the Saints tie the Falcons on Sunday, the same would hold true. Tampa Bay would advance.

If the Falcons win, they improve to 8-9 and join the three-way tie atop the division. In that scenario, Carolina would win the tiebreaker and advance.

So, the rookie Tyler Shough, who will make his ninth start, has a legit shot at impacting who will win the division or not. Unfortunately, that's not in the Saints' favor. But maybe that will be the case next season.

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This article first appeared on New Orleans Saints on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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