Unusual coaching cycle indicates new trend around the NFL

The two Super Bowl teams have this exact coaching structure. Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan are elite offensive minds, and their toughest hiring obligation is to find a complementary defensive coordinator. Reid found Steve Spagnuolo, while Shanahan had success with Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans, who left for head-coaching opportunities, and settled with Steve Wilks in 2023.

The main point behind that logic is that it's much harder to hold a good offensive mind. And, well, Kyle Shanahan is a great example of that. He was the Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator in 2015 and 2016, but a great season made him a perfect HC candidate. Without him, defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn wasn't able to replicate the success anymore.

When an offensive-minded head coach is able to find a good defensive coordinator, it's still easier to keep him around — and, again, the other Super Bowl team is the example. Steve Spagnuolo has done an amazing job in Kansas City, and even then he didn't get any head-coaching interviews.

Why was it different now?

Back in October, I wrote a piece about 25 potential head coaches for 2024. Six of the eight head coaches of this cycle were on the list, and a seventh (Brian Callahan) was on the other names to keep an eye on. The exception was Antonio Pierce, who by the time hadn't taken over as the Las Vegas Raiders' interim head coach.

And looking at the offensive-minded options, you can clearly see a dehydration of alternatives. Ben Johnson was the favorite to get the Washington Commanders job, but he preferred to stay in Detroit as a coordinator. Bobby Slowik got a raise to stay with the Houston Texans. Kellen Moore, Eric Bieniemy, Ken Dorsey, and Frank Smith all lost traction throughout 2023.

Without these options, the remaining names were Drew Petzing (a first-year offensive coordinator for a bad team in Arizona) and Shane Waldron (whose head coach got basically fired after the season in Seattle). You could add Baltimore Ravens' offensive coordinator Todd Monken to the list, but that was pretty much it.

From all the eight hires, new Carolina Panthers' head coach Dave Canales was the only offensive playcaller. Brian Callahan, from the Tennessee Titans, is a respected offensive mind, but the playcaller for the Cincinnati Bengals is Zac Taylor. And Jim Harbaugh, who went to the Los Angeles Chargers, is a CEO-type head coach who will probably hire Greg Roman to be his playcalling coordinator.

"Nowadays, there are all sorts of things involving both sides of the ball and affecting both sides of the ball. If the head coach happens to come from the offensive side, the defensive coach has to be in line with him so they collectively know how they’re going to play the game," Hall of Famer head coach Bill Parcells wrote for The 33rd Team. "This might change from week to week because you might approach one team differently than you approach another, which is the case most of the time."

Leadership

When looking for the next offensive guru, some teams have had success — the Green Bay Packers with Matt LaFleur, the Minnesota Vikings with Kevin O'Connell, the Cincinnati Bengals with Zac Taylor, the Cleveland Browns with Kevin Stefanski, the Miami Dolphins with Mike McDaniel.

But there are also instances of failure. The Atlanta Falcons with Arthur Smith, the Carolina Panthers with Frank Reich, the Denver Broncos with Nathaniel Hackett, the Las Vegas Raiders with Josh McDaniels.

For the most part, the ability to lead an offense is not the most important factor. Sure, it helps. But leading the entire group — and the franchise — is what it takes to succeed.

And that's why teams have hired coaches like Mike Macdonald, Raheem Morris, and Jerod Mayo. They are perceived as leaders, who will have a vision for the entire team in spite of being defensive coaches.

It's a challenge to find and keep good offensive coordinators, and it was certainly an unusual hiring cycle. But the trend around the NFL seems to indicate leadership skills are more important than offensive ingenuity. Let's see where the results take us, and how it will impact next year's hiring process.