Vegas tabs NY Jets as favorites to land Terry McLaurin

This seems like a classic case of Vegas betting lines reflecting what they think bettors will believe rather than what they actually believe will happen. After all, if most people bet the favorite, and the favorite doesn’t acquire McLaurin, Vegas wins.

Not only are the Jets not the actual favorites to acquire McLaurin, but anyone who has followed Darren Mougey’s moves this offseason would know that they may be one of the least likely teams to pursue him.

For one thing, the Jets have the second-youngest roster in the entire NFL with an average age of 25.5 years old. Aaron Glenn has called football “a young man’s game,” emphasizing that this was intentional rather than incidental. Acquiring the almost-30-year-old McLaurin would fly in the face of that philosophy.

Furthermore, the Jets just dished out a large contract to their own star receiver, giving a four-year, $130 million extension to the 25-year-old Garrett Wilson. They added another big splash with a four-year, $120.4 million deal for the 24-year-old Sauce Gardner. Glenn also expressed openness to contract negotiations with the 26-year-old Alijah Vera-Tucker, who would undoubtedly receive a premium deal.

Do the betting lines think NFL salary cap space grows on trees? No. Rather, they believe the average bettor will believe so.

After all, when people decide which team to bet on for a trade, they generally look at one thing only: which teams need a top player at that position?

The Jets certainly fall into that category. Beyond Wilson, their receiver room consists of Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith, Malachi Corley, Xavier Gipson, and a host of undrafted free agents. That may just be the worst ancillary group in the NFL, perhaps making the Jets’ whole receiver room a bottom-three unit in the league.

However, anyone considering the circumstances beyond the initial gut reaction knows this makes no sense. Maybe Joe Douglas would have considered such a move in the 2024 offseason, when the Jets were going for broke. It was Super Bowl or bust (and boy, did it bust). But now, on a team trying to reset the culture and retool? It makes no sense.

The clincher in this circumstance, though, is one simple fact: there is no way the Washington Commanders will trade Terry McLaurin. With a star quarterback entering Year 2 of his rookie deal, the Commanders made a host of win-now moves this offseason, specifically in acquiring aging veterans Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel. To then turn around and trade their No. 1 receiver flies in the face of the mindset those moves signaled.

Then again, it seemed like there was no way the all-in 2024 Jets would let the Haason Reddick situation extend to a stalemate, yet that’s just what they did. There’s no real “never” in the NFL. This is just about as close to a “never” as the NFL can have, though.

The discussion here is not even whether the Jets should make such a move (although Jets X-Factor already addressed this issue at length). It seems preposterous to think that Mougey would do so, making the talking point moot.

Rather, it’s why Vegas lines reflect ridiculous narratives that take about a second of thought to debunk.