Week 13 AFC West predictions: Broncos pull off upset against MVP candidate

In Week 13, the Broncos' playoff push continues, the Chiefs find their groove and the Chargers try to avoid another collapse. (The Raiders have a bye). Here are this week's predictions.

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Houston Texans (6-5): The Broncos have won five straight games for the first time since 2015 and are back in the playoff hunt. On Monday, head coach Sean Payton acknowledged each game is becoming "more important." If Denver beats Houston, the New York Times simulator gives it a 50 percent chance to make the postseason.

Over the past five games, Denver's defense has generated 16 takeaways. This pace isn't sustainable, though. Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud — an MVP candidate, per oddschecker — isn't turnover prone, either. He's third in the league in touchdown-to-interception ratio (19 to five) and has only lost one fumble.

However, the Broncos haven't allowed a 250-yard passer since Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes in Week 6, per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. The Texans lack a balanced attack, ranking second in the league in passing yards (276.2) but 24th in rushing (98.7). Don't be surprised if Denver — a 3.5-point underdog as of Wednesday, per oddschecker — pulls off an upset.

PREDICTION: Broncos, 27-24

Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-6): Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones believes the team's inconsistent offense finally recaptured its mojo in a 31-17 Week 12 win over the Raiders.

"Young guys are going to continue to step up, and we're gonna get back in their rhythm of Pat (Mahomes) scoring 30," Jones said in a Monday news conference. "It's just them finding a rhythm and getting going."

The Kansas City defense remains stout, ranking third in the league in points allowed per game (16.5) and fourth in yards allowed per game (290). 

Packers QB Jordan Love is starting to heat up, though. Over the past four games, he led Green Bay to three wins, threw for eight touchdowns and posted an above-average 103.1 passer rating.

Despite Love's improved play, give the Chiefs an edge. As of Wednesday, oddschecker lists them as a six-point favorite.

PREDICTION: Chiefs, 30-28

Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at New England Patriots (2-9): Per Bleacher Report's Jordan Schultz, Chargers HC Bradon Staley needs a "miracle" to save his job. Could "The Hoody" be the next HC for L.A.? ESPN's Sal Paolantonio recently predicted the Chargers will trade for New England's Bill Belichick to replace Staley.

Regardless, expect Staley to get the best of Belichick on Sunday.

On Wednesday, Belichick refused to name a starting QB. Whether the Patriots roll with Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, their offense will continue to stink. New England is second to last in the league in points scored per game (13.5).

Although the Chargers have lost three straight, QB Justin Herbert is playing at a high level. During this stretch, he has completed 64.2 percent of his passes for seven TDs, two picks and an above-average 95.8 passer rating.

PREDICTION: Chargers, 27-13