Week 18 NFL playoff clinching and seeding scenarios

Clinched teams: 

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1): Clinched AFC West and No. 1 seed/first-round bye/home-field advantage

Buffalo Bills (13-3): Clinched AFC East and No. 2 seed

Houston Texans (9-7): Clinched AFC South and No. 4 seed

Baltimore Ravens (11-5): Clinched playoff berth

Los Angeles Chargers (10-6): Clinched playoff berth

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): Clinched playoff berth

Scenarios: 

Ravens (facing Cleveland Browns) clinch the AFC North and No. 3 seed with

• Ravens win or tie
• Steelers loss or tie

Steelers (facing Cincinnati Bengals) clinch AFC North and No. 3 seed with

• Steelers win and Ravens loss

Bengals (8-8) clinch a playoff berth with

• Bengals win and Denver Broncos loss and Miami Dolphins loss or tie

Denver Broncos (9-7) (facing Chiefs) clinch a playoff berth with

• Broncos win or tie
• Dolphins loss or tie and Bengals loss or tie

Dolphins (8-8) (facing New York Jets) clinch a playoff berth with

• Dolphins win and Dolphins loss

2024 NFC playoff scenarios

Clinched teams: 

Philadelphia Eagles (13-3): Clinched NFC East and No. 2 seed

Los Angeles Rams (10-6): Clinched NFC West

Detroit Lions (14-2): Clinched playoff berth

Green Bay Packers (11-5): Clinched playoff berth

Minnesota Vikings (14-2): Clinched playoff berth

Washington Commanders (11-5): Clinched playoff berth

Scenarios: 

Lions (facing Vikings) clinch NFC North and No. 1 seed/first-round bye/home-field advantage with

• Lions win or tie

Vikings clinch NFC North and No. 1 seed/first-round bye/home-field advantage with

• Vikings win

Atlanta Falcons (8-8) (facing Carolina Panthers) clinch NFC South with

• Falcons win and Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss

Buccaneers (9-7) (facing New Orleans Saints) clinch NFC South with

• Buccaneers win or tie
• Falcons loss or tie

Seeding likelihood

These are the percentage chance that each team could claim all seven seeds in each conference in Week 18, according to ESPN.

AFC: 

No. 1: Chiefs

No. 2: Bills

No. 3: Ravens 94.6%, Steelers 5.4%

No. 4: Texans

No. 5: Steelers 67.7%, Chargers 26.9%, Ravens 5.4%

No. 6: Chargers 73.1%, Steelers 26.9%

No. 7: Broncos 64.3%, Dolphins 25.3%, Bengals 10.4%

NFC: 

No. 1: Lions 65.2%, Vikings 34.8%

No. 2: Eagles

No. 3: Rams 65.9%, Buccaneers 34.1%

No. 4: Buccaneers 50.1%, Rams 34.1%, Falcons 15.8%

No. 5: Vikings 65.2%, Lions 24.8%

No. 6: Commanders 73.9%, Packers 26.1%

No. 7: Packers 73.9%, Commanders 26.1%

Postseason bracket

No. 2 seed vs. No. 7 seed

No. 3 seed vs. No. 6 seed

No. 4 seed vs. No. 5 seed

First-round bye goes to the No. 1 seed

2025 NFL Draft scenarios

Ten teams have five or fewers wins heading into Week 18. Here are the scenarios for teams to earn the number one draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

New England Patriots secure the number one pick with

• Patriots loss to the Bills

Tennessee Titans secure the number one pick with

• Titans loss to the Texans and Patriots win over the Bills

Cleveland Browns secure the number one pick with

• Browns loss to the Ravens and wins or ties by the Titans and Patriots

New York Giants secure the number one pick with

• Giants loss to the Eagles and wins or ties by the Patriots, Titans, and Browns.