Week 1 Fantasy Football Starts And Sits

There is a lot of excitement surrounding the Jaguars’ offense this season, thanks to the hiring of Liam Cohen, but it will only go as far as Trevor Lawrence takes it. He has a great opportunity in week one to start the season on fire.

The Panthers gave up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. The defense should be better, but that isn’t saying much, considering they were the worst in the league last year. To put it into perspective, the Panthers’ defense ranked dead last in the NFL in points, yards, yards allowed per play, and first downs surrendered.

This is a perfect matchup for Lawrence and Cohen to come out swinging and put the league on notice. It should be a high-scoring affair, and the former number one overall pick should be able to have his way with a Panthers defense that bled points last season.

QB Start- Michael Penix Jr. Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Only three teams gave up more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than the Panthers last season. Those teams were the Raiders, Cowboys, and Buccaneers. In two games against Tampa Bay last season, Kirk Cousins averaged 392.5 passing yards and 4 touchdowns per game. This is the same player who would later be benched less than one year into his monster contract with the Falcons, for Michael Penix Jr., the team’s first-round pick.

Penix is a gun slinger who isn’t afraid to let it fly, and this matchup is perfect for his style of play. The game should be high scoring and pass-heavy, considering the Buccaneers’ strong run defense. It’s always fireworks when these two teams meet, and it shouldn’t be any different in week one. Penix won’t be an every-week start for fantasy as he isn’t much of a runner, but in a game that is expected to be a shootout, he is a strong start.

QB Sit- Justin Herbert Vs. Kansas City Chiefs

In two games against the Chiefs last season, Justin Herbert averaged just 13.4 fantasy points per game. That may be a solid score for a flex play, or wide receiver three, but not for a starting quarterback. Between the Chargers’ desire to run the ball, the Chiefs strong defense, and last year’s numbers, it is clear this is not a plus matchup for Herbert for fantasy purposes.

The Chargers offense improved its skill positions with the additions of Omarion Hampton, Najee Harris, Keenan Allen, and rookies Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith, but they lost their standout left tackle, Rashawn Slater, to a season-ending injury. Against a strong Chiefs defense, that could be a problem for Herbert.

Herbert will be a comfortable starter in future match-ups, but in this specific matchup, it’s hard to envision a lot of fantasy success.

RB Start- Tyrone Tracy Jr. Vs Washington Commanders

The best time to start Tyrone Tracy this season will be early on, because as the season goes on, Cam Skattebo will likely eat into his workload and create a 50/50 split. Luckily for fantasy managers, this is a great matchup to play the Giants starter.

The Commanders were a top ten matchup for running backs, as they allowed just under 23 fantasy points per game to running backs last year. To make the mathcup even better, the Commanders defensive line is expected to be worse than it was last season, making them an even better mathcup.

In his lone game as the starter against Washington, Tracy had just 7.2 points, but he had 16 carries for 66 yards. Had he reached the end zone, it would have been a strong day for the rookie. In a plus match-up where he should see a bulk of the carries, Tracy is a strong start as a second running back.

RB Start- Jerome Ford Vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Jerome Ford isn’t a flashy start, but he will score points. The Bengals defense is one of the worst in the league, and in a game that should see a lot of points, Ford will have plenty of opportunity to put together a solid day for fantasy. He will split time with Dylan Sampson, but as the veteran, he should see the important touches, such as the goal line and third-down work. Just two seasons ago, Joe Flacco led the Browns to the playoffs, drastically impacting the fantasy output of the Browns starters, and he should do the same here.

RB Sit- Jaguars Runningbacks vs. Carolina Panthers

This is an elite mathcup, and if you want to start a Jaguars running back, go ahead, but don’t be shocked if they disappoint. It is unclear how the work will be split up between Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne, and there is a chance that Bayshul Tuten has a bigger role than expected. There is a lot of upside in the backfield, but taking a week to figure out everyone’s roles is the way to go for fantasy. Again, it is completely understandable if someone wants to take advantage of this golden matchup against the Panthers league-worst run defense, but don’t go into the game with high expectations if you do so.

RB Sit- RJ Harvey Vs. Tennessee Titans

Similar to the uncertainty with the Jaguars backfield, it is still unclear how the Broncos will split up the workload for their running backs. All three of J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey, and Jaleel McLaughlin will see work, and Tyler Badie may even see a touch or two. Sean Payton will use everyone at his disposal, and that could lead to a messy backfield to start the season. Harvey could emerge as the clear-cut leader in the backfield over time, but to start the season, it will likely be a committee, and that lowers his ceiling and floor as a fantasy starter.

WR Start- Jerry Jeudy Vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Don’t overthink this one, just start Jerry Jeudy. The Bengals are a premier match for any position, but especially pass catchers. Joe Flacco turned Amari Cooper into a league winner two seasons ago, and with Jeudy playing that role in the offense, he should easily see double-digit targets. He was elite down the stretch with Jameis Winston last season, and that should continue with Flacco, given his gun slinger playstyle. Cleveland will lean on the passing game, especially in a game that should be a shootout, and that should mean plenty of targets for Jeudy.

WR Start- Travis Hunter Vs. Carolina Panthers

If a mathcup is favorable for a quarterback, it is going to be favorable for pass catchers as well, and that is the case for Travis Hunter. With Jaycee Horn likely to shadow Brian Thomas Jr., it will lead to a very favorable matchup for the Jaguars first-round pick.

While there is reason to be hesitant about starting Hunter as his role is still unclear, there is no better time to do so than week one. Just last month, head coach Liam Cohen said that the rookie is expected to play about 80% of the offensive snaps. That may not be the case in week one as Hunter is returning from injury, but he will be heavily involved on offense in a game that projects to be high scoring.

WR Sit- Garrett Wilson Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

If you drafted Garrett Wilson, it means you are likely starting him, but just temper the expectations for week one. The Steelers allowed 31 points per game to receivers last year, good for middle of the pack, and that was without Jalen Ramsey in the secondary. Now, with one of the league’s best and most versatile defensive backs, the pass defense should only improve, and that is already trouble for the Jets and Wilson. On top of that, the Steelers can hone in on the Jets star, as there isn’t another receiver to worry about. Josh Reyolnds is the team’s number two option, and while he is solid, he isn’t scaring anyone.

Along with the lack of weapons to game plan around from a defensive perspective, Justin Fields isn’t exactly the most wide receiver-friendly quarterback. DJ Moore was able to finish as a top-ten receiver two seasons ago, but he was far from consistent. The Jets will look to establish the run and slow the game down, making the opportunity for big plays less likely for Wilson.

Starting him is totally fine, but don’t be shocked if he has a disappointing week one.

WR Sit- Calvin Ridley Vs. Denver Broncos

Calvin Ridley is on this list for the same reason as Garrett Wilson. He has a very tough matchup and not much help around him to take pressure off of him. Denver was middle of the pack for points allowed to receivers last year, with an average of 31 per game , but they were never a matchup that anyone targeted, and the defense only got better this offseason. The additions of Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, and Jahdae Barron make Denver’s defense one of the league’s best, and a matchup to stray away from when possible.

Ridley was a great pick in drafts this year, but he could have a shaky start. Cam Ward is a gun slinger, but playing this Broncos defense on the road in your first career start isn’t exactly a recipe for success.

TE Start- Kyle Pitts Vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kyle Pitts has done nothing to deserve being listed as a start of the week in fantasy, but here we are. He has an elite matchup against the Buccaneers, who allowed the fifth most points per game to tight ends last year, with just under 14 per game. Additionally, Pitts two best fantasy performances last season came against Tampa Bay. He averaged 5.5 receptions and 89.5 yards per game, along with 2 total touchdowns across two games. He had great success in this exact mathcup last year, and if there is a reason to still believe in Pitts, he will have to show it in an elite mathcup.

TE Sit- Colston Loveland Vs. Minnesota Vikings

While playing Colston Loveland is exciting, fantasy managers should wait a few weeks before locking him in their lineups. The Bears have a lot of mouths to feed on offense, and at best, the 10th overall pick will be the third target in the passing game, but that is far from a lock. There is a lot of upside with Loveland, but wait to see his role before throwing him in lineups, even in a game that could be high scoring.

End Of My Fantasy Starts And Sits Rant

Everyone wants to win in week one, but week one doesn’t determine much for long-term success, whether you win or lose. It’s nice, but don’t freak out if your team struggles out of the gate. Finding the right starts and sits in week one is always the hardest, as there is no new data to go off of, but the players above are in situations to help you win, or in some cases, lose week one. But either way, don’t overreact to week one.

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