Last week we came back down to earth a bit and finished 1-2 for -0.8 units. On the season, the overall record on the official bets stands at 16-14 for +7.4 unit profit.
We attempt to get back on track this week. Here are my best bets for the Bengals' Week 9 matchyo with the Bears:
Caleb Williams 240+ Alternate Passing Yards + Joe Flacco 20+ Alternate Completions (+122 DraftKings)
Of course we are taking opposing team overs against the Bengals defense.
My Bet Backers:
- Every quarterback not named Carson Wentz has eclipsed 240 passing yards against the Bengals
- Five quarterbacks have had their season-high or second-most passing yards in a game when playing the Bengals defense this year (Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Bo Nix, and Trevor Lawrence)
- Williams has exceeded 250 passing yards in three of his last five games, with each of those instances coming against pass defenses ranked in the bottom-9 of EPA/Pass. The Bengals defense ranks WORST in the league in that metric
- Only two quarterbacks have attempted even 30 passes in a game, with both completing 20+ passes
- Flacco’s passing attempts line is set at 35.5. Flacco has thrown at least 34 passes in every start this season, exceeding 20 completions 6/7 times
Noah Fant OVER 2.5 Receptions + Colston Loveland OVER 2.5 Receptions (+236 DraftKings)
Let’s double dip at the tight end position, targeting a couple of defenses that have struggled to contain.
My Bet Backers:
- The Bears defense has allowed eight tight ends to catch at least three passes, a mark Fant has hit in six games this season
- The defensive struggles of the Bengals against tight ends is well documented, having now allowed a tight end to catch at least three passes in all but one game this season
- Loveland has three catches in back to back games as his routes run reached a season-high against Baltimore in Week 8
Noah Fant 5+ 1st Quarter Receiving Yards + Colston Loveland 5+ 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (+600 DraftKings)
This is a half unit play for me this week. Although neither tight ends sees tons of targets, the odds on this make it a fun parlay to put a sprinkle on.
My Bet Backers:
- Fant has achieved this feat in five games this season
- Loveland has only hit this line three times this season, but the Bengals have allowed 138 receiving yards to tight ends in the first quarter this season
Rome Odunze 60+ Alternate Receiving Yards + Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+214 DraftKings)
If we assume Caleb Williams will have success through the air, it stands to reason that some pass catchers will boom. My money is on Rome Odunze.
My Bet Backers:
- Against the poor pass defenses that Caleb Williams has had most success against, Odunze has tallied receiving lines of 62/1, 69/1, 114, and 32 receiving yards
- Four of the five players that have caught touchdown passes for Chicago this season are wide receivers, with that position group accounting for 8/9 total receiving touchdowns
- Odunze leads the team in receiving touchdowns with five
Chase Brown 60+ Alternate Rushing Yards (+128 FanDuel)
My Bet Backers:
- The Bears defense has allowed 28 runs of 10+ yards, tied with the Bengals defense
- Brown has nine rushes this season that have gained at least 10 yards, with seven of those occurring over the past two games in which he has tallied 73 and 108 rush yards
- The Bears have allowed a total of seven running backs to surpass 60 rushing yards in a game
Finally, we swing for the fences (with ⅓ of a unit) riding the performances of the two Bengals Chase’s:
Chase Brown 80+ Alternate Rushing Yards + 25+ Alternate Receiving Yards + Anytime Touchdown + Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown (+2834 FanDuel)
My Bet Backers:
- If Joe Flacco’s shoulder limits his ability to push the ball downfield, he may rely on shorter targets such as Chase Brown giving him the ability to make more plays in the passing game
- The Bears have given up nine touchdowns to running backs this season, and allowed arguably every star receiver to score at least once against them this season (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave)
As always, don't forget to check out my X for more player props prior to the game.
*DISCLAIMER* This is not intended to be betting advice, rather these are some props I like and will be placing my money on. While I use data and research to support my picks, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Always remember to only bet amounts you are comfortable losing.